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2019年07月22日 03:28:34|来源:国际在线|编辑:当当互动
WASHINGTON — A group of Washington investors with high-level political backing and a billion commitment from the Japanese government is pressing ahead with its vision of a high-speed train that could whisk passengers between New York and Washington in about an hour.华盛顿——一群拥有高层政治背景并已赢得日本政府出资50亿美元(约合300亿元人民币)保的华盛顿投资者正在着手推进他们心中构想的高速列车建设,力图将纽约和华盛顿之间的客运时长缩短到大约一小时。The train, which uses a technology called magnetic levitation, or maglev, to float above the track on magnets instead of wheels, would travel at twice the speed of Amtrak’s Acela. It is one of several high-speed rail projects proposed for the heavily trafficked Northeast Corridor, where chronic traffic congestion and flight delays are expected to get worse.这种列车使用一种名为“磁悬浮”的技术,借助磁力悬浮在轨道上,而非使用车轮。它的行驶速度将达到美铁(Amtrak)阿西乐列车(Acela)的两倍。为了给交通繁忙的东北走廊分担压力,目前出现了数个高速铁路项目的提议,而磁悬浮计划是其中之一。据预计,东北走廊长期的交通拥堵和航班延误现象将进一步恶化。At a total estimated cost of 0 billion, critics say a maglev train on the East Coast is little more than a pipe dream. But that has not stopped the investors from pushing the project.鉴于估算的总花费为1000亿美元,批评人士表示,在东海岸建造磁悬浮列车不过是痴人说梦。不过,这未能阻止投资者去推动这个项目。On a test track in Japan on Tuesday, a prototype train whooshed a group of visiting Americans through mountains at a top speed of 314 miles per hour — so fast, in fact, that Christie Todd Whitman, the former New Jersey governor and one of the Americans on the ride, said trips on Amtrak between Washington and New York were “embarrassing” by comparison.周二,一列原型车在日本的测试轨道上,以314英里(约合505公里)的最高时速载着一群美国客人飞速穿越群山——速度非常之快,以致于此次测试的美国乘客之一、新泽西州前州长克里斯蒂·托德·惠特曼(Christie Todd Whitman)禁不住感叹,相比之下,乘美铁列车往返华盛顿和纽约有些“令人难堪”。To Ms. Whitman, the train is a solution to transportation problems back home, where the Acela — the fastest train in the ed States — takes 2 hours 45 minutes to travel between New York and Washington.在惠特曼看来,这种火车可以解决美国国内的交通问题。在美国,乘坐阿西乐——美国最快的列车——往返纽约和华盛顿,单程需要2小时45分钟。Ms. Whitman is part of a high-powered advisory board for the Northeast Maglev, a private Washington-based company with a goal of building the Washington-to-New York line. The group, which regularly visits Japan to pursue the project and has taken at least three test rides on the train, is trying to convince skeptical American policy makers and investors that the maglev makes financial and political sense.惠特曼是东北磁悬浮公司(Northeast Maglev)一个充满权势人物的顾问委员会的成员。这是一家设在华盛顿的私营企业,其目标是修建华盛顿至纽约的磁悬浮铁路。这群顾问经常前往日本推进项目,而且已至少三次试坐这种火车。他们试图使持怀疑态度的美国决策者和投资人相信,磁悬浮列车在经济和政治上都行得通。The advisory board includes former Gov. George E. Pataki of New York; Tom Daschle, the former Senate majority leader, who also rode on the train in Japan on Tuesday; former Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania; and Mary Peters, who was a secretary of transportation in the George W. Bush administration. Since 2010, the group has spent .4 million lobbying Congress and meeting with state and local officials to build support for the project.该顾问委员会的成员包括纽约州前州长乔治·E·帕塔基(George E. Pataki)、周二也在日本乘坐了火车的前参议院多数党领袖汤姆·达施勒(Tom Daschle)、宾夕法尼亚州前州长爱德华·G·伦德尔(Edward G. Rendell),以及乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)政府的运输部长玛丽·彼得斯(Mary Peters)。从2010年开始,为了争取对该项目的持,他们已经斥资140万美元来游说国会并与州级和地方官员举行会晤。To try to win public support, the group has commitments from the Japanese government to invest about billion to pay part of the cost of construction of the first leg, an estimated billion route between Washington and Baltimore. The maglev would enable travelers to go between the two cities in as little as 15 minutes.为了尽力赢得公众持,他们获得了日本政府出资50亿美元的承诺。这笔钱将用来付第一段铁路线的部分建设费用。这段铁路将连接华盛顿与巴尔的,预计造价为100亿美元。在磁悬浮技术的帮助下,乘客只需最少15分钟就能在这两座城市之间穿梭。But large obstacles remain.不过,现实中还是存在一些巨大障碍。Given the project’s cost, the maglev company would need support from the federal government, but transportation advocates are skeptical that it will be forthcoming. And the U.S. High Speed Rail Association, which supports more conventional high-speed rail systems, has dismissed the maglev train as too expensive and experimental.由于项目开巨大,东北磁悬浮公司将需要联邦政府提供持,但交通行业的活跃人士对此表示怀疑。持更传统的高铁系统的美国高速铁路联合会(U.S. High-Speed Rail Association)认为,磁悬浮列车过于昂贵且处于试验阶段,不宜考虑。In addition, the maglev company would have to secure rights of way to build the specialized tracks, a serious financial undertaking on some of the most expensive real estate in the country. The company plans to build a large part of its route underground, which would add to the cost.此外,这家磁悬浮公司还必须获得在美国某些最昂贵的地段上修建专用轨道的通行权,而这是一项重大经济负担。公司计划把很大一部分路线建在地下,将令成本进一步增加。But Wayne Rogers, an investor in renewable energy and other projects and chairman and chief executive of Northeast Maglev, said the train makes more sense than current proposals to fix transportation problems in the Northeast, including building more roads and fixing tracks to make Amtrak trains go faster. Adding more highways in the region would increase congestion, he said.然而,东北磁悬浮公司的董事长兼首席执行官韦恩·罗杰斯(Wayne Rogers)表示,和当前为解决东北地区的运输问题而提出的其他建议相比,磁悬浮列车更合理。相关提议包括,修更多公路,以及升级轨道,以便让美铁列车行驶得更快。身为可再生能源等项目的投资人的罗杰斯说,在该地区多修公路会加剧拥堵。As for fixing existing tracks to speed up Amtrak trains, “It’s like putting a Ferrari on the crowded Beltway around Washington: It’s not going to make it go any faster,” Mr. Rogers said.至于升级现有轨道,以便让美铁列车提速,罗杰斯说,“就像把法拉利放在绕华盛顿的环形公路上一样:根本不会让它跑得更快。”(Amtrak has its own plans to provide high-speed rail on the corridor: a 1 billion proposal to upgrade its existing system to make it easier for trains to travel at 220 m.p.h., which would reduce the trip between New York and Washington to about 90 minutes. Congressional critics and some transportation experts have called the proposal too costly.)(在为东北走廊提供高速铁路方面,美铁有着自己的计划:一项耗资1510亿美元的提议要求升级现有系统,以便让列车更易于以220英里的时速运行。这将使纽约与华盛顿之间的交通时间减少到大约90分钟。国会的批评人士和部分运输专家称,该方案成本过高。)Another supporter of the maglev, James P. RePass, chairman of the National Corridors Initiative in Boston, which supports increased federal and private investment in rail projects, said he was previously skeptical of the train project, but has changed his mind.同样持磁悬浮的还有全美走廊倡议组织(National Corridors Initiative)主席詹姆斯·P·里帕斯(James P. RePass)。该组织位于波士顿,提倡联邦和私人增加对铁路项目投资。里帕斯表示,他以前对磁悬浮列车计划持怀疑态度,但现已改变主意。“If you had asked me two years ago, I would have said not a chance,” Mr. RePass said. “But this proposal, which seemed unlikely in the past, is gaining credibility. The reason is that unlike a lot of projects, this one actually has money.”“如果两年前问我,我会说根本不可能,”里帕斯说。“但过去看似不太可能的这个提议,现在越来越可信。原因在于,不同于许多项目,这一个实际上自带资金。”Mr. Daschle, who heads the advisory board for Northeast Maglev, dismisses concerns about the maglev technology.东北磁悬浮公司顾问委员会主席达施勒驳斥了对磁悬浮技术的担忧。“You can’t be a skeptic on the technological side anymore, because it’s been shown to work,” he said after his ride on the train.“你无法再在技术方面质疑了,因为它已经被明是可行的,”他在试坐完磁悬浮列车后说。Mr. Rogers said the company was moving ahead with its plans: It has filed an application with the Maryland Public Service Commission to transfer the franchise rights of the defunct Washington Baltimore amp; Annapolis railroad to Northeast Maglev, the first step in getting the project off the ground. The company will need additional approvals from the Surface Transportation Board and the Federal Railroad Administration. Without the transfer of the franchise rights, the company would have to ask the Maryland General Assembly to approve a new franchise agreement, a process that could take years.罗杰斯表示,公司正在推进自己的计划:它已向马里兰州公共务委员会(Maryland Public Service Commission)递交了申请,请求将现已停止务的华盛顿至巴尔的再到安纳波利斯铁路的特许经营权转让给东北磁悬浮公司。这是启动项目的第一步。公司另外还需获得地面运输委员会(Surface Transportation Board)和联邦铁路(Federal Railroad Administration)的批准。如果不能通过转让获得特许经营权,公司将不得不提请马里兰州议会批准一项新的特许经营协议。这一步可能需要花费数年时间。“We can’t wait around until political and financial conditions are perfect,” Mr. Rogers said. “The transportation infrastructure on the Northeast Corridor is in bad shape. We need to get moving.”“我们不能一直等到政治和财务状况都完备,”罗杰斯说。“目前东北走廊的运输基础设施状况很糟糕。我们需要行动起来。” /201410/337770China#39;s new leadership holds a key meeting this weekend that state media are trumpeting as a likely ;watershed; for economic reform, but analysts caution details of its decisions are likely to be vague and implementation gradual.The four-day session of the full 376-strong Communist Party Central Committee begins Saturday at a closely guarded private hotel in Beijing.Known as the Third Plenum, it traditionally sets the economic tone for a government#39;s five-year term.中国的新领导层11月举行了为期四天的大会,由376名共产党中央委员会成员参加,为中国政府未来五年内的经济发展制定计划和方针,为发展奠定基调。In the past, such meetings have been used to signal far-reaching changes in how China does business, and state-run media say that anticipation has been building. The official Xinhua news agency proclaimed that the plenum ;is expected to be a watershed as drastic economic policies will be unveiled;.在过去,这样的会议标志着中国经济发展的深刻变革。新华社宣称,十八届三中全会预计将成为经济发展的分水岭,新的经济政策将被揭晓。Other reports have singled out land reform as a key issue, while a government think-tank called for dismantling the residency registration system known as hukou, which restricts access to medical insurance and other benefits for migrants.其他报告指出这次会议将土地改革作为一个重要的议题。而政府的智囊机构呼吁废除户口登记制度,这个制度对于外出打工者来说,限制了他们享受医疗保险和其他福利的权利。Cai Hongbin, a professor at Peking University#39;s Guanghua School of Management, said key issues such as urbanisation, the social safety net, taxation and financial reforms would be discussed.北京大学光华管理学院教授蔡宏斌说,会议上会讨论一些重要的议题,例如,城市化、社会保障、税收和金融改革。;Historically, China has implemented ground-breaking reforms when the economy has faced some serious challenges,; Nomura International economists in Hong Kong wrote in a report.“在历史上,当经济面临一些严峻的挑战时,中国会实施突破性的改革。”野村国际驻香港的经济学家在一份报告中写道。;However, we believe that pressures are not yet sufficient to demand such rapid implementation, while the reforms are more complex than they have been in the past.;“但是,我们相信,要求如此快速地去实现改革,压力真的很大,因为当前的改革比过去更复杂。”Xinhua ed experts including professors at the party#39;s central school as saying any political reform would aim at ;strengthening, not weakening; the organisation#39;s leadership.新华社引用中央党校专家教授的话:任何政治改革都旨在“加强,而不是削弱”组织的领导的能力。Cai said that, ultimately, economic reform cannot truly succeed without changes to how the government acts, such as reducing local authorities#39; interference in business.蔡说,若再不改变政府的行为,如地方政府减少对商务贸易的干涉,经济改革基本上不能算是真正的成功。;You can talk about all sorts of economic policy changes, in the end whether these policy changes will make a serious impact on the Chinese economy really depends on whether we will have serious government reforms,; he said.他说:“你可以谈论各种各样的经济政策的变化,但最后这些政策的变化是否影响中国的经济,实际取决于政府是否有重大的改革措施。”China#39;s leadership says the economy, the world#39;s second largest, needs to move away from reliance on state-financed investment projects and unleash the power of consumers and other private actors to propel growth.中国的领导阶层说,作为世界第二大经济体,中国的经济需要减少对国有投资项目的依赖,利用消费者的力量和其他私有企业来推动经济增长。Yao Wei, economist in Hong Kong, said: ;The real test of Beijing#39;s reform resolution will be the action taken in the following three to six months.;香港经济学家姚炜说:“真正考验中国改革决心的是接下来三到六个月内采取的改革措施和行动。” /201311/264942It takes some variety of wilful ignorance to dismiss the need for action to avert the threat of climate change.只有某些故意愚昧的人,才会认为针对气候变化威胁采取行动是没有必要的。From imaginings of vast conspiracies to complacency that global warming can only be benign, the arguments against taking the danger seriously are rooted in a refusal to face reality. The climate is a complex system, of course, and forecasting it fraught with uncertainty. But the evidence is strong enough to make it clear that the risk of catastrophe cannot be dismissed.反对严肃应对气候变化威胁的观点各式各样,从各种大阴谋论,到满不在乎地认为全球变暖可能没什么大不了的,其根源是不愿面对现实。当然,气候是个复杂的系统,对气候进行预测也充满了不确定性。但已有足够充分的据表明,发生气候灾难的风险不容忽视。Yet advocates of action on climate change often display their own varieties of irrationality. The campaign for universities, charities, local governments and others to sell their holdings in fossil fuel companies, which has been gathering momentum in recent years, is a case in point.然而,主张就气候变化采取行动的人往往也表现出他们自身的种种不理性。一个例子是撤资运动(divestment campaign),这场运动呼吁大学、慈善机构、地方政府、其他组织和个人出售所持化石燃料企业股份,其声势近年来不断增强。The campaigners’ zeal is understandable. The potential consequences of unrestrained fossil fuel development are alarming, and if you are looking for someone to blame, the oil, gas and coal industries are an obvious target.撤资运动人士的热忱可以理解。不受限制的化石燃料开发可能导致的后果令人担心,如果你试图就此责备谁,那么石油、天然气和煤炭行业是明摆着的靶子。By focusing on divestment, however, the campaigners are channelling their efforts into an issue that is largely irrelevant to the ultimate objective of minimising the threat of climate change.然而,我们最终的目标是要最大程度降低气候变化威胁,撤资运动人士一门心思呼吁人们出售上述企业的股票,是把力气使到了一个基本无关这个最终目标的问题上。The financial impact of divestment is likely to be negligible. If charities sell their holdings in fossil fuel companies, other investors will buy them. If enough funds sell, the shares may fall, raising the companies’ cost of capital, but evidence from the divestment campaign over South Africa suggests the effect is unlikely to be large.撤资的经济影响很可能微乎其微。如果慈善机构出售所持化石燃料企业股份,那么其他投资者会接盘。如果卖盘足够多,股价可能会下降,从而提高这些企业的资金成本,但南非撤资运动的经验明,这种做法不太可能取得很大效果。Divestment campaigners often say their objective is not so much financial as symbolic: they want to send a signal that fossil fuels are morally unacceptable. It is hard to see, however, how the world can be persuaded to shun voluntarily the source of more than 80 per cent of its energy. Fossil fuels offer enormous benefits as well as great risks, and their role in sustaining standards of living worldwide is for the time being irreplaceable.撤资运动人士往往说,他们的目标更多是象征性的、而非经济上的:他们希望传递一个讯号,即化石燃料在道德上是不可接受的。然而,化石燃料占世界能源使用量的80%以上,很难想象他们如何能说全世界主动弃用化石燃料。化石燃料带来了巨大的益处,也造成了巨大的风险,就目前而言,化石燃料在维持全世界民众生活水准方面发挥的作用仍是不可替代的。Nor is it reasonable to expect fossil fuel companies to be the pioneers of the transition to other sources of energy; they have tried that many times in the past, always with disappointing results. The real advances recently in low-carbon energy, such as the plunging cost of solar power systems and progress in battery technology, have all come from outside the fossil fuel industries.期待化石燃料企业充当向新能源转型的先锋也是不理智的。这些企业过去已尝试过那么多次,每次的结果都令人失望。低碳能源领域最近取得的实质性进步,比如太阳能发电系统成本的大幅下降以及电池技术取得的进展,都来自化石燃料行业以外。It is true that as the world shifts away from high-carbon energy, the oil, gas and coal companies will become less attractive investments, but shareholders can take their own views about the timing and consequences of that transition. Divestment should be seen as an outcome, not an instrument.没错,世界在逐步改用高碳能源以外的能源,这会使得石油、天然气和煤炭企业的投资吸引力下降,但持股人对这种转变的时机和后果可以拥有自己的看法。撤资应该被视为一种结果,而非一种手段。If global greenhouse gas emissions are to be brought under control, governments will have to play a central role. That does not mean the state takeover of the economy sometimes imagined by climate sceptics, but there will have to be a framework, including taxes and other incentives, that changes the behaviour of both businesses and consumers.如果想控制住全球温室气体排放,各国政府就必须发挥核心作用。这并不意味着如气候变化怀疑论者有时想象的那样,由国家来接管经济,而是意味着要建立一个包含税收激励和其他激励的框架,以改变企业和消费者的行为。A genuine solution to the threat of climate change will require a price on greenhouse gas emissions, greater investment in energy innovation, switching from coal to gas to power generation, cost-effective means of storing carbon dioxide, and a global framework that encourages all the countries of the world to participate. Divestment helps with none of those.要真正化解气候变化威胁,就必须对温室气体排放定价,加大能源创新投资,从使用煤炭发电改为使用天然气发电,找到划算的二氧化碳储存办法,建立一个全球性框架、以鼓励世界各国参与。撤资对这些都没有帮助。At best, the divestment campaign will encourage a wider debate about those practical measures that are needed. At worst it will fool people, including the campaigners themselves, into believing that something significant is being achieved.在最好的情况下,撤资运动会鼓励人们对有必要采取的那些切实措施展开更广泛的辩论。在最差的情况下,撤资运动会让民众(包括撤资运动人士自己)产生一种错觉,以为抗击气候变化之战正在取得什么重大的成果。 /201504/367491

DA NANG, Vietnam — The year began well for Mai Thanh Trung, newly employed at a travel company here that caters to Chinese tour groups. Mr. Trung said he regularly greeted charter flights from the Chinese mainland and pocketed an average monthly commission of about 0.越南岘港——麦忠程(Mai Thanh Trung)进入岘港一家接待中国旅游团的公司不久,对他来说,今年开年的形势很不错。麦忠程说,他经常接待来自中国大陆的包机乘客,每月可以拿到600美元(约合人民币3700元)的提成。But then came May, when a state-owned Chinese company parked an oil rig near Vietnam’s central coast in a part of the South China Sea that both countries claim. Two days of anti-Chinese riots followed in southern and central Vietnam. And, according to hospitality professionals in this central coast city of nearly one million, the inbound Chinese tourism market crashed.但是到了5月,一家中国国有企业在靠近越南中部海岸的一片海域部署了一个石油钻井平台,中越两国都声称拥有这片海域的主权。两天之后,越南南部和中部爆发了反华骚乱。于是,在这个拥有近百万人口的中部海岸城市,中国人入境旅游市场崩溃了,这里的酒店业人士说。Mr. Trung, 24, said the flights that once brought his Chinese clients stopped in late May, leaving him and his 50 colleagues temporarily unemployed. He sat idle for weeks in his home village, 25 miles south of Da Nang, watching the World Cup on television.24岁的麦忠程说,5月下旬开始,给他带来中国客户的航班就停飞了,因此他和50位同事暂时失了业。这几周来,他都在岘港以南25英里的老家村里看世界杯电视转播。The rig began moving north, toward Hainan Island in China, on July 15. Mr. Trung said that seemed to have prompted a trickle of Chinese tourists to return, and that he expected to make at least 0 this month in commissions. But the unrest over the rig and continuing tense relations have rattled his sense of job security.7月15日,这个钻井平台开始向北面的海南岛移动。麦忠程说,此举似乎导致了中国游客人数的小幅回升;他预计这个月自己至少可以拿到200美元的提成。但钻井平台带来的动荡不安,以及仍在持续的紧张关系,已经破坏了这份工作的安全感。“Right now it’s going back to Hainan Island, but we don’t know when it will come back,” he said of the rig.“现在它回海南岛去了,但我们不知道什么时候它又会回来,”他谈到这个钻井平台时说。Although at least four Chinese workers died in the riots, order was restored quickly. But China and other countries issued advisories citing potential risks to public safety in Vietnam. Tourism specialists said the Chinese advisory led thousands of people to cancel trips, in part because it invalidated some travel insurance policies.尽管至少有四名中国工人在骚乱中死亡,秩序很快得到了恢复。但中国和其他国家发布了越南公共安全存在潜在风险的公告。旅游专家表示,中国的公告导致数千人取消了行程,部分是因为它使得一些旅游保险失去了效力。Chinese accounted for about a quarter of the nearly 4.3 million foreign visitors to Vietnam in the first six months of 2014. But in June, arrivals from the Chinese mainland fell about 30 percent and those from Hong Kong fell 72 percent, compared with May.2014年的前六个月,越南接待了430万境外游客,中国游客约占其中四分之一。但在6月,中国大陆游客比5月减少了约30%,香港游客减少了72%。“They became a little bit afraid,” said Matthias Wiesmann, general manager at the Furama Resort Danang, one of the city’s many beachfront properties. The hotel lost 10 percent to 15 percent of its business, or about 2,800 room nights, in May and June, he said. Nguyen Xuan Binh, director of the government’s Da Nang Center for Tourism Promotion, said the average occupancy rate at the city’s beachfront hotels was 60 percent to 70 percent in late June, compared with the usual 80 percent to 90 percent. But Ken Atkinson, chairman of the tourism working group at the Vietnam Business Forum, a public-private consortium, suggested that rate was probably not higher than 30 percent or 40 percent.“他们有点害怕了,”岘港富丽华大酒店(Furama Resort Danang)的总经理马蒂亚斯·维泽曼(Matthias Wiesmann)说。该市有很多这样的海滨酒店。今年5月和6月,这家酒店的客房业务滑坡10%到15%,相当于2800个总房夜,他说。阮轩平(Nguyen Xuan Binh,音译)是官方机构岘港旅游推广中心(Da Nang Center for Tourism Promotion)的主任,他表示,今年6月下旬,该市海滨酒店的平均入住率是60%到70%,往年通常在80%到90%之间。但肯·阿特金森(Ken Atkinson)表示入住率为大概不超过30%或40%,阿特金森是官方与企业联合设立的联盟“越南商业论坛”(Vietnam Business Forum)旗下旅游委员会的主席。Mr. Binh says Da Nang is as safe as ever. He predicted that Chinese tourists would return but said that he did not know when.阮轩平说,岘港和以往一样安全。他预计中国游客会回来,但说他不知道具体是什么时候。“They’ll come to Da Nang and see the reality,” he said.“他们会到岘港来,看到真实的现况,”他说。Mr. Binh, the Da Nang tourism official, said growth in the city’s inbound Chinese tourism market before May was mainly related to a sharp rise since 2012 in charter flights operated by Vietnam Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines. He said Dragonair, a sister airline of Cathay Pacific, had also opened non-charter flights between Hong Kong and Da Nang.阮轩平说,5月之前,岘港中国人入境旅游市场的增长,主要和2012年以来包机航班的急剧增多有关,经营这些航班的有越南航空公司(Vietnam Airlines)、中国东方航空公司和中国南方航空公司。他说,国泰航空(Cathay Pacific)的姊航空公司港龙航空(Dragonair),也推出了香港和岘港之间的非包机航班。A spokeswoman for the state-owned Vietnam Airlines declined to comment on the Chinese tourism slump, saying in an email that the company was still “collecting and evaluating” related information. China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines did not respond to email seeking comment.国营越南航空公司的一位女发言人拒绝对中国人入境旅游市场的衰退进行置评,她在一份电子邮件中说,这是因为该公司仍在“收集和评估”相关信息。中国东方航空公司和中国南方航空公司均未回复请求就此事置评的电子邮件。Cathay Pacific and Dragonair canceled a total of 23 return flights between Hong Kong and three regular Vietnam destinations — Da Nang, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City — between late May and the end of June, said Erica Peng, Cathay Pacific’s Vietnam country manager. She added that the airlines normally operated 33 weekly flights from Hong Kong to those cities, including seven Dragonair flights to Da Nang.5月底和6月底之间,国泰航空及港龙航空取消了香港和越南三个常规目的地——岘港、河内和胡志明市——之间的总共23个回程航班,国泰航空的越南地区经理彭彧表示。她还说,在正常情况下,国泰航空每周有33个从香港飞往这些城市的航班,包括港龙航空七个飞往岘港的航班。Mr. Binh, the tourism official, said the “main driver” behind the Da Nang charter flights from China was the Crowne Plaza Danang, a large hotel on the city’s beachfront. Four hospitality executives on the central coast echoed his analysis, saying the Crowne Plaza caters almost exclusively to Chinese tour groups.前述负责旅游事务的官员阮轩平表示,从中国到岘港的包机航班背后的“主要驱动因素”是该市的大型海滨酒店岘港假日酒店(Crowne Plaza Danang)。中部海岸地区的四名酒店业高管赞同他的分析,称假日酒店几乎只为中国旅游团务。On a recent summer afternoon, Zhang Lei, a Chinese businessman from Henan Province, stood beside the pool in the Crowne Plaza’s deserted beachside courtyard. He said that aside from the friends he was traveling with, he had not met any other Chinese-speaking guests during his stay and that many Chinese were not traveling to Vietnam because of the South China Sea dispute and the factory riots in May.前不久的一个夏日午后,来自河南省的中国商人张雷(音译)站在假日酒店的游泳池旁,他所在的临海小院颇为冷清。张雷说,除了同行的朋友外,他住在这里期间没有遇到其他任何一个说中文的客人,并称因为南海争端和5月的工厂骚乱,许多中国人不来越南。“China has helped Vietnam so much over the years, but the Vietnamese have turned against us,” Mr. Zhang said while sipping from a coconut.“这些年,中国帮了越南这么多,但越南人却和我们作对,”张雷一边从一个椰子里小口啜饮椰汁一边说。A Crowne Plaza employee, who declined to give his name because he was not authorized to speak with the news media, said Chinese typically were 70 percent to 80 percent of the hotel’s clientele. Emma Corcoran, a spokeswoman for the hotel’s parent company, InterContinental Hotels Group, declined a request for an interview with the hotel’s general manager.假日酒店的一名员工称,中国人通常在酒店客人中占70%到80%。因为无权接受新闻媒体的采访,这名员工要求匿名。该酒店的母公司洲际酒店集团(InterContinental Hotels Group)的女发言人埃玛·科科兰(Emma Corcoran)拒绝了采访酒店总经理的请求。Clarence Tan, the company’s chief operating officer for Southeast Asia and resorts, said in an emailed statement that China’s recent tourism advisory from the Chinese government, coupled with the reduction in direct chartered flights into Da Nang, had contributed to a decline in Chinese arrivals at the company’s Da Nang properties.该公司负责东南亚事务和度假村的首席运营官陈汉泉(Clarence Tan)在一份通过电子邮件发出的声明中表示,中国政府最近发布的旅游公告,以及直达岘港的包机航班的减少,导致公司在岘港的酒店接待的中国游客减少。Despite the drop in Chinese arrivals, Vietnam still expects to welcome 8.2 million international tourists this year, Nguyen Manh Cuong, vice chairman of the national tourism agency, told reporters on July 9, days before the Chinese oil rig left the disputed area of the South China Sea. The total for last year was nearly 7.6 million, official figures show.7月9日,越南全国性旅游机构的副主席阮曼强(Nguyen Manh Cuong)告诉记者,尽管中国游客减少,但越南今年依然有望接待820万国际旅客。几天后,中国的钻井平台离开南海的有争议水域。官方数据显示,越南去年总共接待了近760万国际游客。The rig’s departure appears to have increased overall tourist confidence in Vietnam, said Mr. Wiesmann, of the Furama Resort Danang. He added that business at the beachfront property had nearly returned to normal by late July, because of upticks in Australian, Japanese, South Korean and Vietnamese guests.岘港富丽华大酒店的维泽曼表示,钻井平台的离去似乎提振了游客对越南的总体信心。他接着表示,到7月末,因为澳大利亚、日本、韩国和越南客人的增加,该海滨酒店的业务几乎回归到了正常水平。Mr. Wiesmann said inbound Chinese tourism, though still sluggish, was improving “little by little,” though it remained unclear when, or whether, the market would recover fully.维泽曼说,中国游客入境游市场虽然依然不景气,但正在“逐渐”改善,不过尚不清楚这个市场何时,或会不会完全恢复。“It’s a little bit difficult to predict,” he said.“有些难以预料,”他说。 /201407/314811

A century has passed since the guns of August 1914 ended the era of European predominance with a deafening bang. Could such a catastrophe recur in our time?1914年8月,欧洲占主导地位的时代在震耳欲聋的炮声中结束。如今100年时间过去了,此类灾难还会在我们的时代重演吗?The sequence of events since the Malaysian jet MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine is remarkably similar to the one that followed the assassination of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in June 1914. Now, as then, the crisis begins with an act of state-sponsored terrorism. Now, as then, Russia sides with the troublemakers. Even the request by the Dutch government for access to the site where so many of their nationals perished is reminiscent of the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia. Now, as then, ownership of a seemingly unimportant region of eastern Europe is disputed.自马航MH17航班在乌克兰东部上空被击落以来发生的一系列事件,与1914年6月奥地利大公弗朗茨#8226;斐迪南(Franz Ferdinand)被刺杀之后的事件极为相似。现在和当时一样,危机始于一场政府持的恐怖主义行动。现在和当时一样,俄罗斯与麻烦制造者站在一边。甚至荷兰政府提出的进入坠机现场的要求(许多荷兰公民在此次事件中丧生),也令人想起当年奥地利对塞尔维亚发出的最后通牒。现在和当时一样,东欧一个貌似不起眼地区的所有权引发了争议。In 1914 it was Bosnia-Herzegovina, formerly an Ottoman province, annexed by Austria-Hungary in 1908, but claimed by the proponents of a united South Slav state. Today we have not only the annexation of Crimea by Russia but also the potential secession from Ukraine of Donetsk and Lugansk, where pro-Russian separatists have proclaimed independent “people’s republics”.1914年,引发争议的地区是波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那。该地区曾经是奥斯曼帝国的一个省,后来在1908年被奥匈帝国吞并,但统一南斯拉夫国家的持者却对该地区宣称主权。现在,不仅俄罗斯吞并了克里米亚,而且顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克还有可能脱离乌克兰独立。在顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克,亲俄罗斯的分裂势力已经宣布成立独立的“人民共和国”。And now, as then, the crisis is escalating. Even before the downing of MH17, Washington had tightened sanctions against Russia. This week both the US and the EU have taken the next step, imposing sanctions on whole sectors of the Russian economy, rather than just individuals and specific firms. The tighter the economic squeeze, the more President Vladimir Putin is cornered. In effect, the west is now confronting him with a choice between capitulation – ending his support for the separatists – or escalation – making sure that they are not crushed by the forces of the Kiev government. For a man like Mr Putin, the first option does not exist.现在和当时一样,危机逐步恶化。甚至在马航MH17航班被击落之前,华盛顿就加大了对俄罗斯的制裁。上周,美国和欧盟全都采取进一步措施,对俄罗斯经济中的整个部门施加制裁,而不是仅仅针对个人和特定公司。经济制裁越严厉,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)就越有可能走投无路。实际上,西方现在正让普京面临选择,是屈从压力结束对分裂势力的持,还是要确保他们不会被乌克兰政府军队击垮,从而加剧危机恶化。对于普京这样的人来说,第一个选项是不存在的。The July crisis of 2014 therefore looks ominous. At the very least, the hope has now been dashed that a post-Soviet Russia could peacefully be integrated into a western world order based on free markets and democracy. At worst, what began as a little local difficulty in eastern Ukraine could be about to explode into a much larger struggle for mastery in Europe.因此2014年7月的危机看起来是一个不祥之兆。最起码,苏联解体之后的俄罗斯和平融入建立在自由市场和民主基础之上的西方世界秩序的希望已经落空。而最坏的情况是,最初乌克兰东部一场小小的地方冲突,可能演变为一场规模大得多的争夺欧洲主导权的争斗。So how to explain the relative equanimity of financial markets in the face of this gathering storm? Blame the historians. To those who subscribe to the view that the first world war had its origins in distinctive pathologies of early 20th-century Europe such as imperialism, militarism, nationalism and secret diplomacy, today’s crisis is nothing to worry about. For modern Europeans have renounced imperialism, have all but disarmed themselves, feel embarrassed by nationalism and conduct their diplomacy via Twitter rather than secret telegrams.那么如何解释金融市场在风暴来临之际的相对平静呢?这要怪历史学家。有些人认为,一战的根源是20世纪初欧洲独有的诸多弊病,如帝国主义、军国主义、民族主义和秘密外交,对这些人来说,如今的危机没什么可担心的。因为现代欧洲人已经放弃了帝国主义,差不多解除了武装,对民族主义感到尴尬,并且通过Twitter而不是秘密电报来开展外交。Even more complacent are those who insist on laying all the blame for 1914 on Germany. Today’s Germans prefer winning world cups to losing world wars. In almost every respect, Angela Merkel, their chancellor, is the historical antithesis of Kaiser Wilhelm II: female, democratically elected, supremely cautious and almost comically circumspect when asked what makes her feel proud to be German. (“Our well-sealed windows,” she once told Bild newspaper.)那些将1914年战争全都归咎于德国的人甚至更加满不在乎。如今的德国更喜欢赢得世界杯,而不是输掉世界战争。从几乎所有方面来说,德国总理安格拉#8226;默克尔(Angela Merkel)就是德皇威廉二世(Kaiser Wilhelm II)的历史对立面:默克尔是女性、经由民主选举上台、极为谨慎,在被问及什么让她对身为德国人感到自豪的时候,她谨慎得近乎好笑——她曾经向《图片报》(Bild)表示:“是我们密封良好的窗户。”Yet the narratives woven by historians over the past 100 years must be treated with caution. Whether they blame “isms” or Germans, the majority of academic explanations of the first world war suffer from a fundamental flaw. The deep-seated causes they posit seem largely to have been missed by contemporaries, for whom – with very few exceptions – the war came as a complete surprise.然而我们必须谨慎对待历史学家对过去100年编织的故事。无论他们是怪罪于“主义”还是德国,对于一战的多数学术解释存在根本性的缺陷。他们假想的深层次原因似乎基本没有被他们同时代的人注意到,对后者来说(只有极少数人例外),一战完全是个意外。As the year 1914 began, The New York Times looked forward to a “growing rapprochement between Germany, France and England” over the Balkans. “The British horizon in the direction of Germany seems to be clearing,” the Times also reported. In Germany “all signs” pointed to “numerous conflicts between the government#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;and the Social-Democratic party during the coming year”. Plans were afoot for an international conference in New York to celebrate “100 years of peace among English-speaking peoples”.在进入1914年之际,《纽约时报》(The New York Times)预计“德国、法国和英国(围绕巴尔干地区)的争执会日趋缓和”。《泰晤士报》(The Times)还报道称,“从英国向德国方向看,视野似乎正变得清晰”。在德国,“所有迹象”都表明“政府……与社民党(Social-Democratic party)来年将冲突不断”。人们正计划在纽约举行国际大会,庆祝“讲英语国家的人民实现100年的和平”。Among the best informed people in 1914 were the bankers of the City of London, who certainly stood to lose a lot of money in the event of a world war.1914年消息最为灵通的人包括伦敦金融城(City of London)的家们——一旦爆发战争,这些人必然会损失许多钱。Yet the correspondence of the Rothschilds, then the most powerful financial dynasty, reveals an almost total failure to anticipate the scale of the conflagration.然而,从当时最为强大的金融王国——罗斯柴尔德(Rothschild)家族的信件来看,他们几乎完全未能预见到那次战火的规模。As the Economist reported, it was only on July 31 – by which time fighting had begun – that the financial world saw “the meaning of war#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;in a flash”.正如《经济学人》(The Economist)报道的那样,直到7月31日(那时战争已经爆发),金融世界才“瞬间……认识到战争的意义”。It has become a commonplace idea that today’s frothy financial markets are oblivious to the stream of bad news from eastern Europe, not to mention the Middle East. But that does not mean the news is not really bad at all. New York and London were equally blasé about the origins of the first world war. It was not until three weeks after the Sarajevo assassination that the London Times even mentioned the possibility that a European political crisis might lead to financial instability. Nine days later the stock exchange closed its doors, overwhelmed by panic selling as investors suddenly woke up to the reality of world war. Let no one reassure you that this crisis has somehow been “priced in”. No one priced in the guns of August 1914.如今肤浅的金融市场毫不关心来自东欧(更别提中东)的一系列坏消息,这一点人们已经见怪不怪。但这并不意味着这些消息真的一点儿也不糟糕。纽约和伦敦同样不关心一战的起源。直至萨拉热窝刺杀事件发生3个星期之后,《泰晤士报》才提到欧洲政治危机导致金融动荡的可能性。9天后股市由于不堪恐慌性抛售的重负而关门,因为投资者突然意识到世界大战爆发的现实。别相信任何人向你保的市场已在某种程度上将此次危机的影响“考虑在内”。当年没有人把1914年8月的炮“考虑在内”。This should give not only historians pause. If great historical events can sometimes have causes that are too small for contemporaries to notice, might not a comparable crisis be in the making today? What exactly makes our July crisis different? Is it because we now have the UN and other international institutions? Hardly: with Russia a permanent member of the UN Security Council, that institution has been gridlocked over Ukraine. Is it because we now have the EU? Certainly, that eliminates the risk that any west European state might overtly take Russia’s side, as France and Britain did in 1914, but it has not stopped EU members with significant energy imports from Russia fighting tooth and nail against tougher sanctions.这不仅仅应该让历史学家停下来思考。如果重大历史事件的根源有时候过于微小,从而让同时代的人注意不到,那么如今一场类似的危机不是也有可能在酝酿之中吗?到底有什么能让我们7月的危机不同以往?就凭我们现在有联合国(UN)和其他国际组织?很难这样说:由于俄罗斯是联合国安理会(UN Security Council)常任理事国,联合国在乌克兰问题上陷入瘫痪。就凭我们现在有了欧盟?当然,这消除了西欧国家公然站在俄罗斯一边(就像法国和英国在1914年做的那样)的风险,但它没有阻止从俄罗斯大量进口能源的欧盟成员国极力反对实施更严厉的制裁。What about the role of globalisation in diffusing international conflict? Sorry, you could have made the same argument 100 years ago (indeed, Norman Angell did, in his book The Great Illusion). Very high levels of economic interdependence do not always inoculate countries against going to war with each other.全球化在缓解国际冲突中发挥的作用呢?很遗憾,100年前你就可以提出这种观点了(事实上,诺曼#8226;安杰尔(Norman Angell)就曾在自己的著作《大幻觉》(The Great Illusion)中阐述过这样的观点)。但是,经济的高度依存也无法永远阻止国家之间的战争。Often I am told that it is the existence of nuclear weapons that has reduced the probability of a world war in our time. But even if that were true it surely does not apply here. In making their calculations about sanctions, European leaders did not give a moment’s thought to Russia’s vast superiority in missiles and warheads.也常常有人告诉我,在我们这个时代,是核武器的存在降低了世界战争的可能性。但是,即使这个观点是正确的,也无法适用于当前情况。在为制裁深思熟虑的时候,欧洲的领导人丝毫没有想过俄罗斯在导弹和弹头方面拥有的巨大优势。A better answer relates to the balance of conventional forces – and the balance of the will to use them. Since the end of the cold war, by any meaningful measure, Europeans have disarmed themselves and are incapable of fighting wars unassisted by the US. More importantly, European peoples have lost their stomach for fighting.一个更好的与常规力量的平衡、以及使用这些力量的意愿的平衡相关。自冷战结束以来,从任何有意义的标准来讲,欧洲人都可以说自我解除了武装,以至于没有美国的帮助就无法作战。更重要的是,欧洲人失去了战斗的欲望。A century ago the overwhelming majority of Britons supported the government’s argument that the German violation of Belgian neutrality was a legitimate casus belli – including my grandfather, who rushed to enlist.一个世纪以前,英国政府认为德国侵犯比利时的中立性是一个合理的开战理由,持政府的英国人占压倒性多数。其中也包括我的祖父,他当时立刻应征入伍。And today? Even after the downing of MH17, just one in 10 British voters would favour deploying western troops to defend Ukraine against Russia. The fundamental asymmetry in the Ukrainian crisis is that the Kremlin is able and willing to use military force; Europeans – and Americans, for that matter – want to go no further than economic sanctions.今天又怎样呢?即使在MH17航班被击落后,也仅有十分之一的英国选民持在乌克兰部署西方的军队,以抵御俄罗斯。乌克兰危机中根本性的不对等就是,克里姆林宫有能力而且也愿意使用武力;而在这件事上,欧洲人和美国人都不愿意在经济制裁以外更进一步。And yet there is another and still better way of explaining the difference between 1914 and 2014 – and that is to recognise that what happened 100 years ago was itself a very improbable disaster, which required a whole succession of diplomatic and military miscalculations to happen. One way of making this point is to use computer simulations to re-run the 1914 crisis, something which is now possible thanks to the sophisticated strategy game Making History: The Great War.要解释1914年和2014年情况的不同,还有一种更好的办法,那就是认识到100年前发生的事件原本是一个不大可能发生的灾难,是一连串外交和军事误判的结果。要说明这个观点,一种方法是使用计算机模拟技术,重演1914年的危机。归功于精良的战略游戏《创造历史:一战》(Making History: The Great War),我们已经可能做到这一点。Like Muzzy Lane’s earlier War of the World game, which allowed players to replay the events of the second world war, this game makes it clear that decision makers are not in the grip of vast, impersonal forces but have meaningful strategic choices. It is perfectly possible to re-run the July 1914 crisis multiple times and not end up with a world war.Muzzy Lane开发的前作《创造历史2:世界大战》(Making History II: The War of the World )让玩家可以重新玩一遍第二次世界大战的事件。类似于前作,《创造历史:一战》中的决策者并不受强大的、非人力因素的配,而是可以选择采取各种意义深远的战略。玩家完全有可能把1914年7月的危机重演许多次,并且不让游戏以世界大战告终。The real lesson of history is that a relatively small crisis over a chunk of third-rate eastern European real estate will produce a global conflict only if decision makers make a series of blunders.历史给我们留下的真正教训是,只要决策者犯下一系列错误,即使是围绕一大片东欧三流房地产发生的相对较小的危机,也能演变成全球冲突。As it happens, I think it is a blunder to use sanctions to give President Putin no choice but folding or fighting. But – assuming there are no more MH17s – the price for that blunder will be paid mainly by the people of Ukraine. The blunders of a century ago led to the deaths of more than 10m people, mostly young men, drawn from all over the world.事实上,我认为用制裁将俄罗斯总统普京逼得除了屈或者战斗以外别无选择,就是一个错误。然而,如果我们假定不会有更多类似马航MH17航班这样的事件,这个错误的代价就主要是由乌克兰人来承担的。而一个世纪以前犯下的那些错误导致超过1000万人丧生,其中绝大多数是由世界各地征召而来的年轻人。As we commemorate the outbreak of the first world war, let no one swallow the old but tenacious lie that their “sacrifice” was a necessary and noble one. On the contrary, the war is best understood as the greatest error of modern history. That is a harsh truth that many historians still find unpalatable. But then, as AJP Taylor once observed, most people who study history only “learn from the mistakes of the past how to make new ones”.当我们纪念第一次世界大战爆发100周年的时候,不要让任何人听信陈旧但却一直持续的谎言,即他们的“牺牲”是必要而且高尚的。相反,这场战争最好应该被理解为现代历史上最严重的错误。这是一个残酷的事实,许多历史学家依然觉得难以接受。然而,正如A#8226;J#8226;P#8226;泰勒(AJP Taylor)曾经做出的论断,大多数研究历史的人只是“从过去的错误中学到如何犯下新的错误”。 /201408/318642

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