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楼主:养心社区 时间:2019年09月23日 19:25:09 点击:0 回复:0
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U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday Iran has been ;formally put on notice; for its ballistic missile launch, and he warned that ;nothing is off the table; in dealing with Tehran.美国总统川普星期四表示,伊朗因发射弹道导弹而“受到正式警告”。川普警告说,在与德黑兰打交道时“没有什么措施不可以考虑。”In a series of tweets, Trump also continued his condemnation of the agreement that the U.S. and five other world powers reached to curb Irans nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.川普发出一连串推文,继续批评前总统奥巴马政府领导的美国等六个大国与伊朗达成的伊核协议。为了限制伊朗核项目,六大国以减轻制裁作为交换。He said Iran should be ;thankful; for the agreement, and that the country was ;y to collapse; before the billions of dollars were unfrozen.川普说,伊朗应该“感谢”这个协议,如果巨额资金没有解冻,伊朗当时“行将崩溃。”Later, at a White house meeting with Harley-Davidson executives and union members, Trump said ;nothing is off the table,; in response to a reporter who asked if military action against Iran was an option.之后,川普在白宫会见美国托车名牌哈戴维森公司的高管和工会成员,有记者问到是否会对伊朗动用武力,川普表示,“没有什么是不可以考虑的。”The nuclear deal required Iran to limit its enrichment of uranium and convert several of its nuclear facilities to other uses.核协议要求伊朗限制生产浓缩铀,并把几处核设施转用于其它目的。On Wednesday, it was Trumps National Security Advisor Michael Flynn who condemned Irans recent missile launch, declaring it ;just the latest in a series of incidents; in which Iran has threatened the U.S. and its regional allies over the past six months. He said leaders in Tehran were emboldened to take such action now because the nuclear agreement is ;weak and ineffective,; and because the other nations involved in the agreement failed to take action to rein in Irans military ambitions.星期三,川普的国家安全顾问弗林谴责伊朗最近进行的导弹试射。他说,“这是过去六个月来发生一连串事件中最新的一次”,伊朗的举动威胁到美国及其地区盟友。弗林说,德黑兰领导人现在之所以如此胆大妄为,就是因为核协议“软弱而无效”,还有参与这个协议的其它国家没有采取行动约束伊朗的军事野心。During a briefing at the White House, Flynn accused former President Barack Obama and other members of his administration of not being tough enough on Tehran.在白宫举行的一次简报会上,弗林批评前总统奥巴马和他的一些幕僚对伊朗不够强硬。来 /201702/490283Snap out of it. Donald Trump is just the jolt Europe needed. 振作起来;唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)正是欧洲所需的一针提神剂;Too long coddled by the US, Europeans should welcome the president-elect’s admonition to stand on their own feet. 太长时间享受美国庇护的欧洲人,应该对这位当选总统敦促欧洲人自力更生表示欢迎。Stunned by the outcome of the US election, European policymakers have gone in desperate search of silver linings.震惊于此次美国大选结果的欧洲政策制定者为了寻找乌云的金边可谓不遗余力。There are none. 这金边是找不到的。Whatever Europe’s shortcomings as a partner to the US and there have been plenty Mr Trump promises to make the world, including Europe, a more unstable and dangerous place. 无论作为美国合作伙伴的欧洲有什么缺点(肯定不少),特朗普一定会让包括欧洲在内的整个世界变得更不稳定、更危险。That this approach may encourage Europeans to assume greater responsibility for their own security is all to the good but it does not alter the essential prognosis.他或许会激励欧洲人为自身安全担负起更大的责任,因而不失为一件好事,但这一点不改变上述基本论断。Mr Trump’s foreign policy is a work in progress. 特朗普的外交政策还在酝酿当中。Measured by the public statements of the president-elect and his closest advisers, it is shot through with contradictions. 观察这位当选总统及其最亲密顾问的公开声明,可以看出其中充满了矛盾。America-first isolationism jostles with pledges to increase military spending. 一边宣扬美国为先的孤立主义,一边承诺增加军费开。The recurring themes, though, are economic nationalism and withdrawal from the global responsibilities the US has assumed since 1945. 然而,反复出现的主题是经济民族主义以及不再承担美国945年以来一直承担的全球责任。Mr Trump, whose criticisms of Nato are longstanding, seems clear that allies whether Japan, the Republic of Korea or Nato members such as Germany, Poland, France or Britain should look after themselves.长期对北Nato)持批评态度的特朗普似乎已经清楚地表明,美国的盟友——无论是日本、韩国,还是德国、波兰、法囀?英国等北约成员国——都应自食其力。The disdain for globalism catches the public mood in the US. 特朗普对全球主义的蔑视契合了美国的公众情绪。After costly wars of choice in Afghanistan and Iraq there is not much of a market in the midwest for overseas adventurism. 经过了阿富汗、伊拉克这两场不是非打不可且代价高昂的战争,海外冒险主义在美国中西部地区已没有多大市场。The Iraq war was intended as a demonstration of American might. As things turned out, it illuminated national weakness. 发动伊拉克战争本是为了显示美国的实力,结果却暴露了美国的弱点。Superior military hardware takes you only so far unless you have political consent.优势武器装备的作用是有限的,除非能获得政治上的同意。The charge that Europe has been a free-rider on the US defence budget broadly speaking is a fair one. 广义来说,指责欧洲一直搭乘美国国防预算的便车也不为过。It has been acknowledged, if then ignored, by many European politicians. 许多欧洲政治家都承认了这一点——如果不是后来又忽视了这一点的话。I never understood why newly democratic governments in eastern Europe with most to fear from Russian revanchism cut so deeply into defence budgets.我一直不明白东欧新成立的民主政府为何如此大规模地削减国防预算,它们最有理由忧惧俄罗斯复仇主义。Some Europeans presented a philosophical justification for the unequal contribution to Nato. 一些欧洲人为北约内部这种不平均的费用分摊提出了哲学上的理由。Europe’s role after the collapse of communism was that of a normative power, sping liberal internationalism by example. 共产主义垮台后,欧洲扮演的角色是一个标杆大国,通过树立榜样传播自由国际主义。As the sole superpower, the US could keep the peace. 作为全球唯一的超级大国,美国可以维持这种和平。Seen from Washington this was never a good bargain. 从华盛顿的角度来看,这从来都不是一笔合算的买卖。And, anyway, things have moved on from that glorious moment of innocence when it was possible, just, to imagine a world order recast in Europe’s postmodern image.此外,无论如何,形势已经发生变化,不再是那个刚刚可以想象一种按照后现代欧洲形象塑造的世界秩序的光荣时刻。All this said, American altruism has always been a myth. 话虽如此,美国的利他主义从始至终根本就不存在。From the outset the US commitment to the alliance was rooted in self-interest. 美国对北约的承诺从一开始就根植于自身利益。Roosevelt, Truman and the rest had weighed the cost of isolationism during the 1920s and 1930s. 罗斯Roosevelt)、杜鲁门(Truman)等领导人权衡了上世纪二、三十年代实行孤立主义的代价。Nato was the first line of defence against the global, and anti-American, ambitions of Soviet communism.北约是抵御苏联共产主义全球(反美)野心的第一道防线。Likewise, the postwar international economic architecture was drawn to American specifications. 同样,战后的国际经济体系也是根据美国的意愿打造的。A secure and prosperous Europe provided a rich market for US multinationals. 安全、繁荣的欧洲为美国跨国公司提供了广阔的市场。American business was the big winner from an open international order.美国企业是开放的国际秩序的。The assumption was modified only slightly once the Berlin Wall came down. 柏林墙倒塌后,这种设定仅稍有调整。The Atlantic alliance would at once entrench democracy in the former communist states and sp the liberal Washington consensus to rising states in the south and east.这个跨大西洋联盟立刻在前共产主义国家巩固民主,并向南方和东方崛起的国家传播信奉自由主义的华盛顿共识。The economic calculus has changed during the past decade mainly because China has been the biggest winner from the open trading system but it is hard to find a significant US business that thinks America would benefit from a retreat into protectionism.虽然过去十年全球经济格局已经改变——主要因为中国已成为开放贸易体系的最——但很难找到一家认为美国将从回归贸易保护主义中受益的重要美国企业。It would not take much to upend the alliance. 拆散北约也不是很难。Now, as during the cold war, Nato stands or falls on the credibility of the US commitment to defend its allies. 像冷战期间那样,如今北约的成败依然系于美国保卫盟友承诺的可信度上。If Mr Trump shares the view of his friend Newt Gingrich that Estonia is little more than a suburb of St Petersburg the game is lost. 如果特朗普赞同友人纽金里Newt Gingrich)的观点——爱沙尼亚不过是圣彼得堡的郊区——那这场弈就输了。No manner of increase in European defence budgets will sustain Nato deterrence if Russia sees the US dumping the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence arrangements.如果俄罗斯看到美国放弃北大西洋公约第五条关于共同防御的安排,无论欧洲国家如何增加国防预算都无法维持北约的威慑作用。A part of Mr Trump may say: who cares? He can certainly find realists in the US and European foreign policy establishments who would turn over parts of the former Soviet space to a Russian sphere of influence. 特朗普内心有一个声音或许会说:管他呢?他一定可以在美欧外交政策建制派中,找到会听任俄罗斯把部分前苏联地区收入自己势力范围之内的现实主义者。But the true realist question is what does the US get from Moscow in return? Not much beyond a damaging reputation as an unreliable ally.但真正现实的问题是,美国能从莫斯科得到什么回报?除了留下不可靠的盟友的坏名声外,美国不会得到什么。Beyond its economic interest in European stability the EU may have its troubles but it is America’s richest overseas market the US has much to lose from a break-up of the alliance. 不仅是欧洲的稳定关系到美国的经济利益(欧盟或许遭遇了麻烦,但仍是美国最富裕的海外市场),北约解体还将让美国损失更多。You do not restore American power and prestige by ditching old friends.抛弃了老朋友的美国是不会恢复实力和威望的。Europe’s role during these past several decades has been to offer the US a stamp of international legitimacy in the pursuit of its national interests. 欧洲过去几十年一直扮演为美国追求国家利益提供国际合法性明的角色。Some would say it has sold itself too cheaply. 有人会说,欧洲要价太低了。As Wolfgang Ischinger, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, wrote recently in The New York Times: Wherever Mr Trump looks, he will not find better partners to work with to secure America’s strategic interests.慕尼黑安全会Munich Security Conference)主席沃尔夫冈.伊申格尔(Wolfgang Ischinger)最近在《纽约时报The New York Times)上撰文称:无论在哪儿,特朗普都找不到(比欧洲)更好的、保护美国战略利益的合作伙伴了。So yes, Europeans should spend more on defence. 没错,欧洲应当在国防上投入更多。As importantly, they need a strategy to confront the threat from Moscow and the chaos on its southern borders. 同样重要的是,他们需要一项应对莫斯科的威胁以及南部边境外混乱局面的战略。But no one should pretend that the US would be a winner were Mr Trump to rupture permanently one of the most successful alliances in history.但如果特朗普永久瓦解这个历史上最成功的联盟之一的话,谁都不应假装美国会成为赢家。来 /201611/480269Donald Trump was elected US president on a platform of anti-globalism and, in particular, on a promise to change or withdraw from America’s existing trade agreements and kill the ones in the pipeline.唐纳特朗Donald Trump)以反对全球化、特别是承诺改变或是退出美国现有贸易协定、并且扼杀筹备中贸易协定的竞选纲领,当选了美国总统。The Trans-Pacific Partnership was aly in trouble before the election; Trump’s victory seems to have given it the coup de grace. 在大选开始前,《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定TPP)已然处于困境之中;特朗普的获胜似乎给了它致命一击。The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, meanwhile, now looks set to be stillborn.与此同时,《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定TTIP)如今似乎也将胎死腹中。That is, as far as US participation goes. 准确的说,是如果只考虑美国的参与程度的话。What the American turn inwards means for the rest of the world is an open question. 美国人把重心转向国内对世界其他地区意味着什么,目前不得而知。There are those who think the loss of US leadership on international economic integration will embolden protectionism elsewhere especially as it comes on the heels of the protectionist vandalism that is Brexit and sap the will of those who want to keep their economies open or even open them further. 有人认为,缺少美国对国际经济一体化的领导,将助长各地保护主义——特别是在英国退欧造成保护主义破坏性影响之后——并削弱那些希望保持经济开放、甚至进一步开放经济的人的意愿。They will point to Europe, whose free-trade deal with Canada was passed by a whisker last month, and that only conditionally.他们将以欧洲为例——欧洲与加拿大的自由贸易协定上个月勉强通过,而且是带有条件的。But there is another possibility, which is that victory of anti-globalism in the US and the UK galvanises others to fight harder for the continued lowering of national barriers.但是,还有另一种可能,美国和英国反全球化的胜利,会刺激其他人更加努力地继续降低国家贸易壁垒。Cue John Key, the prime minister of New Zealand. 比如新西兰总理约翰.John Key)。At the Apec (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Lima last week, he defiantly vowed to push ahead with trade integration in the Pacific. 在上周于利马召开的亚太经合组APEC)峰会上,他公开发誓要推进太平洋地区的贸易一体化。He suggested tweaking the deal to make it more attractive to the Trump administration including, jokingly, by naming it the Trump-Pacific Partnership but, more importantly, made clear that the other TPP partners should seriously consider going ahead with the deal even without US participation. 他建议,调整协定内容以增加对特朗普政府的吸引力——包括,开玩笑地,把该协定命名为《特朗普太平洋伙伴关系协定Trump-Pacific Partnership)——但更重要的是,他明确表示TPP其他伙伴国应该认真考虑,在没有美国参与的情况下继续推进该协定。Peru’s president, too, warned against protectionism and against giving up on the TPP.秘鲁总统也告诫不要实行保护主义和放弃TPP。Meanwhile, Beijing has responded nimbly to Trump’s election by encouraging America’s likely-to-be-spurned TPP partners to join it in building a free-trade area including China instead. 与此同时,北京方面对特朗普当选美国总统作出机敏的反应——鼓励有可能被特朗普一脚踢开的TPP伙伴国跟中国一道建立一个包括中国在内的自贸区。The world’s second-largest economy is aly involved in several regional trade initiatives that are beginning to be touted as alternatives to TPP. 这个世界第二大经济体已经加入了多个区域贸易计划,这些计划正开始被吹捧为TPP的替代品。Australia is showing interest in the move, which would sideline the US.澳大利亚对这一将美国剔除在外的举动表示出了兴趣。It is a strange world when China becomes the champion of global economic openness. 中国成为全球经济开放的领头羊,这着实是个奇怪的世界。But it is an entirely logical one, if the US does indeed decide to abdicate leadership. 但如果美国确实决定放弃领导权,这个世界完全符合逻辑。As the FT’s Shawn Donnan puts it, when outgoing President Barack Obama met his counterparts at the Apec summit, he may have felt he is handing the Chinese leader the keys to the global economy. 正如英国《金融时报》的肖恩.唐南(Shawn Donnan)指出的那样,在即将离任的美国总统巴拉奥巴Barack Obama)在APEC峰会上与其他领导人会面时,他可能觉得他正在把全球经济的钥匙交给中国领导人。He es the Peterson Institute’s Adam Posen as pointing out that: You can’t beat something with nothing, and the Chinese are offering something.他援引彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的亚波森(Adam Posen)的话指出:你不能两手空空地打败对方,而中国人在拿出一点东西。To anyone who cares to notice, this brings home the continued importance of global integration but also who, in particular, leads the integration effort. 对于所有对此留心的人来说,这不仅清楚说明了全球一体化的持续重要性,还特别说明了谁在领导一体化努力。The something that China offers is much less ambitious than the TPP in particular, it will not include that deal’s seminal provisions on labour and environmental standards. 中国拿出的那点东西远没有TPP那么有野心——特别是它不会包括TPP在劳动力和环境标准方面具有重大影响的条款。Moreover, trade integration led by Beijing instead of the US will mean trade integration on terms more suitable to China. 此外,由中国代替美国领导的贸易一体化将意味着,这种贸易一体化的条款将更适合中国。That must surely be inferior for the US and its allies to the US-led terms and standards for Asia-Pacific economic integration to which China would eventually have to adapt, which was the big strategic prize of the TPP.对于美国及其盟友来说,这必然不如由美国领导的亚太经济一体化的条款和标准(中国原本最终不得不适应这些条款和标准,这本是TPP的一项重大战略奖品)。That makes Pacific trade one aspect of the bigger picture of America’s interest in the rules-based global order that it has built and maintained since the second world war which has served it and its allies better than the alternatives of international anarchy or an order designed by its big power rivals. 这使得太平洋贸易成了美国在基于规则的全球秩序中的整体利益的一个方面(这个全球秩序由美国自二战后逐渐建立并维持,相比国际无政府状态或由美国的强大对手设计的秩序等其他选择而言,该秩序更有利于美国及其盟友)。America first, in global politics, could quickly reveal itself as America last. 在全球政治中,美国领头可能会很快变成美国最后。And, as Leonard Cohen, the late poet of an imperfect world, said in an interview a few years ago: you will not like what comes after America.同时,正如抒写不完美世界的已故诗人莱昂纳科恩(Leonard Cohen)在多年前接受采访时说的:你不会喜欢失去美国后的样子。America’s choice is ultimately the most consequential. 最终而言美国的选择是影响最重大的。But the more immediate battles between openness and withdrawal from the global economy are taking place in Europe. 但开放与从全球经济中退出之间更直接的斗争正在欧洲上演。Partly, of course, in the process of Brexit, where the fight is on over how much to raise trade barriers between the UK and its biggest trading partner. 当然,斗争部分是因为英国退欧进程,斗争的焦点是,在英国与其最大的贸易伙伴之间应该竖起多高的贸易壁垒。But also because the EU itself is actually contributing to the cause of trade openness through two substantial deals.但斗争也是因为欧盟本身通过两个重要协议推动贸易开放。One is Ceta, the fraught EU-Canada trade and investment agreement that is finally passed, at least conditionally, after a Walloon hold-up. 一个是命运多舛的《综合经济与贸易协定CETA)。该协定是欧盟与加拿大之间的贸易和投资协定,曾因比利时瓦隆地方议会的反对而搁浅,最终得以通过(至少是有条件通过)。That was widely seen as an embarrassment for Europe. 瓦隆插曲被广泛视为欧洲的尴尬。But we should be clear about what the final result involved: that a big trade liberalisation package was exposed to real and messy democratic scrutiny and that it survived the exposure. 但是我们应该明白最终结果的含义:一项重大贸易自由化方案受到真正而且复杂的民主审视,并且经受住了这种审视。In these times, where democracy is seen as antagonistic to economic openness, that is something to celebrate.在当前这个民主被视为与经济开放对立的时代,这一点值得庆贺。The other, much less talked about, effort is the EU-Japan free-trade deal. 另一项很少被谈及的努力是欧盟与日本之间的自由贸易协定。Mysteriously absent from the headlines, negotiations have been taking place for three and a half years and are nearing completion. 有关该协定的谈判已经进行了三年半,目前已接近尾声,但却令人费解地从未登上过头条。Some think that, in pure economic terms, the prospective gains are bigger than could be had from TTIP. 一些人认为,单纯以经济条件来看,该协定的未来好处超过TTIP。The two sides have still to agree on phasing out protection of Europe’s car market against lower barriers in food and agriculture in Japan.双方仍然需要就逐步解除欧洲汽车市场保护以及削减日本食品与农业方面的壁垒达成一致。Brexit focused minds; Trump’s victory must have focused them further. 英国退欧引起人们高度关注;特朗普获胜更是如此。It is in Japan’s and the EU’s narrow self-interest to conclude the deal. 达成该协议符合日本和欧盟的自身利益。But it is also in the broader defence of their values, and the liberal global order, that they do so with confidence and without further delay.但他们满怀信心、不再迟疑地敲定该协议,也是对其价值观以及全球自由秩序的维护。来 /201611/479824

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