首页>要闻>天下           天下         

      

福州市人民医院祛疤痕多少钱管热点

2019年11月15日 06:34:12 | 作者:健专家 | 来源:新华社
Chinese patients are fed up with their doctors, and doctors are fed up with their patients.中国的病人已经受够了他们的医生,而医生也受够了他们的病人。During a two-week stay in a Beijing hospital, here’s what I wrote in my diary: ‘‘One has a curious sense of being in a machine, an irritant, like a grain of sand. … No one has the right to anything, not even medical care. You can only demand, beg or seize.’’在北京一家医院住院两周期间,我在日记里写下了以下文字:“有一种奇怪的感觉,仿佛身处机器里,仿佛令人生厌,像是一粒沙子……人没有任何权利,就连获得医疗护理的权利也没有。你只能要求、恳求或尽力去抓。”And people do. ‘‘Kan bing nan,’’ or ‘‘It’s hard to see a doctor,’’ they say about the country’s oversubscribed, underfunded, often corrupt, health system. In frustration, patients may attack their physicians. Bribery is common.大家确实就在这么做。提到中国的医疗体系需求过多、资金不足,而且经常出现腐败现象时,人们将其概括为“看病难”。一些心怀不满的病人可能会攻击医生。收受贿赂的现象也颇为常见。Patients’ relatives gather in hospital waiting rooms and corridors, or camp out in wards cooking and tending to the sick, to make up for inadequate nursing. They may stage noisy protests to get the attention of staff members.病人的亲属聚集在医院的候诊室和走廊里,或者暂住在病房中,做饭并照顾病人,以此弥补医院看护不足的问题。他们可能会故意进行激烈的抗议活动,为的是引起工作人员的关注。‘‘I think you will find that most doctors are good people,’’ said a doctor at another Beijing hospital. Yet, physicians are unpopular and need advice on ‘‘upholding their rights,’’ according to an article on the website of the Chinese Medical Doctor Association. Common problems: What should a doctor do when bitten by a patient with syphilis? Assaulted by a drunk? Besieged at home for 10 years by a couple angry over their daughter’s unsuccessful operation?在北京另一家医院工作的一名医生表示,“我想,你会发现大多数医生都是好人。”不过,中国医师协会网站上的一篇文章却显示,医生不受欢迎,需要“维权”方面的建议。常见问题包括:被梅毒携带者咬伤后,医生该怎么办?遭到醉酒者攻击时,该如何应对?被不满女儿手术失败的夫妇围堵家门长达10年时,该做些什么?China’s medical system is a ‘‘market of distrust,’’ according to Cheris Shun- ching Chan, a sociologist at the University of Hong Kong. An emphasis on profits, a culture of ‘‘gift giving’’ and a lack of professional ethics have produced a difficult atmosphere, she said.香港大学的社会学研究者陈纯菁(Cheris Shun-ching Chan)称,中国的医疗体系是一个“信任缺失的市场”。她表示,对盈利的重视、“送礼”文化的盛行,以及职业道德的缺乏产生了一种不利的氛围。‘‘During the Mao period, doctor-patient relationships were relatively harmonious,’’ Ms. Chan said. Money was scarce and resources were few, for all. But after decades of market liberalization as hospitals sought to generate revenue, contributing to treatment shaped by commercial rather than medical concerns, trust is gone. ‘‘The conflict really is between patients and doctors,’’ she said.陈纯菁说,“在毛泽东时代,医患关系相对融洽。”尽管当时也存在经费和资源匮乏的问题。不过,经过数十年的市场自由化后,随着医院寻求盈利,出于商业而非医疗方面的考虑进行治疗,这种信任已经荡然无存。她表示,“这实际上就是病人与医生之间的矛盾。”The government says 90 percent of Chinese have some health insurance, but underfinanced state programs leave many patients covering the bulk of their costs themselves. One attempt to overcome the inefficiencies of the system and ensure a physician treats a patient well is to give ‘‘hongbao,’’ or red envelopes — bribes.政府声称90%的中国人都有某种医疗保险,但资金不足的国家医保导致很多病人需要自己付大部分的医疗费用。要想克医疗系统效率低下的问题,确保医生认真治疗,一种办法就是送“红包”——贿赂医务人员。Such payments are illegal. In 2014 the National Health and Family Planning Commission issued its 13th notice in two decades demanding that patients not give them and physicians not take them, Ms. Chan said.此类报酬属于非法所得。2014年,国家卫生和计划生育委员会发布通知要求病人不送红包,医生不收红包。陈纯菁表示,这是20年来的第13份相关通知。Hongbao, typically of 1,000 to 5,000 renminbi per envelope, or 0 to 0, are particularly common before major surgeries, said Ms. Chan, citing a survey she conducted. Of 572 people interviewed in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, 31 percent said they had offered hongbao, and these were accepted in 80 percent of cases, she said.陈纯菁称,她所做过的一项调查显示,在重大手术前送红包是一种常见的现象,金额从1000元到5000元不等。她表示,应答者包括北京、上海及广州的572人,其中31%表示,他们送过红包,80%的情况下被对方收下。‘‘You have to ‘buy’ a doctor’s effort to save the life of a person,’’ she said. ‘‘The main aim is to get the physicians to perform the surgery to the best of their ability. It’s what surgeons are supposed to do, of course.’’“要想拯救一个人的生命,你得‘收买’医生,”她说。“主要目的是让医生尽力做好手术。当然,医生本来就应该这样做。”The government recognizes the problems. On April 1, a meeting of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms discussed the need for change in the medical system.政府承认存在上述问题。4月1日,中央全面深化改革领导小组举行会议,讨论医疗系统改革的必要性。‘‘We must realize the responsibility of the state to provide medical care, break the system of public hospitals pursuing profit, and build an appropriate salary system that matches the special skills of the medical profession,’’ reported Xinhua, the state news agency. Leaders know more investment is needed.官方新闻机构新华社报道,“要落实政府办医责任,破除公立医院逐利机制,建立符合医疗行业特点的人事薪酬制度。”看来,领导人知道需要加大投入。But money may not be enough. A lack of professionalism skews everything, according to a recent report by David Blumenthal and William Hsiao in The New England Journal of Medicine. A century into China’s quest to be a modern state, ‘‘the norms and standards of medical professionalism’’ and ‘‘the independent civic organizations that could promote and enforce them’’ are still missing, they write.不过,光是加大投资可能还不够。戴维·布鲁门萨尔(David Blumenthal)和萧庆伦(William Hsiao)近期在《新英格兰医学杂志》(The New England Journal of Medicine)发表文章称,职业精神的缺失会扭曲一切。文中写道,中国寻求成为现代国家已有一个世纪的时间,但仍旧缺乏“医学职业精神的规范和标准”,以及“能够推广并加强这些规范和标准的独立民间组织”。Said Ms. Chan: ‘‘Doctors often joke that they are afraid to sit in offices with their backs to the door in case they’re stabbed.’’ And everyone feels the deficit of humanity.陈纯菁表示,“医生们经常开玩笑说,他们不敢背对着门坐在办公室里,以防被捅。”大家都能感觉到这当中人性的缺失。 /201504/369422Can a planned economy build great brands? The history of the Chinese auto industry suggests not. Domestic brands’ market share has fallen five percentage points year to date to less than a third. On Monday, China found Mercedes-Benz guilty of price fixing.计划经济能否缔造伟大品牌?中国汽车业的历史似乎表明不能。今年迄今为止,中国国产品牌市场份额已下降5个百分点,降至不到三分之一。周一,中国裁定梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)在定价上违法。These facts may not be related, but regulation in China’s auto market has long been aimed at supporting local names. In the early days, state planners decreed that foreigners must go halves with a local partner on any auto venture. This policy did not lead to the hoped-for transfer of technology and management knowhow. State-owned enterprises and their foreign partners alike found it easier to make money just letting foreigners get on with it.这两个事实也许不相关,但长期以来,中国汽车市场监管的目的一直都是持本土品牌。初期,中国政府的规划者规定,外商投资的任何汽车企业必须由本土合伙人持有一半股份。这项政策并没有带来他们所期盼的技术和管理知识的转移。中国国有企业和他们的外资伙伴都发现,放手让外国人运营企业更容易赚钱。Thus, from the mid-2000s, the government tried a different tack. This time, foreign partners were encouraged to develop an entirely “local” brand for transfer to the domestic partner. Foreign carmakers used the opportunity to introduce a lower-priced brand based on older overseas models. The ironic result has been to undermine the proper homegrown brands – Geely, Chery, Great Wall and BYD – whose cars had previously dominated the lower end of the market.因此,从2005年前后开始,中国政府尝试了另一种策略。这一次,官方鼓励外资合作伙伴开发一个完全“本土”的品牌,然后将其转交给中国国内的合作方。外国汽车制造商利用这一机会,推出了基于海外旧款型号的低价品牌。具有讽刺意味的结果是,这破坏了正宗本土品牌的成长:吉利(Geely)、奇瑞(Chery)、长城(Great Wall)和比亚迪(BYD)这些中国本土品牌的汽车此前曾主导低端市场。Auto industry benchmarking firm JD Power’s 2013 survey, released in April, included five Chinese brands. Four that were the “local” offspring of the international partnerships, including Wuling Hongguang (General Motors and two local partners) and Changan Star 2 (Ford and Changan). BYD was the only fully Chinese brand on the list.汽车行业基准研究公司JD Power在4月公布的2013年调查报告中,包括了五家中国品牌。四家是源于国际合作的“本土”产物,其中包括五菱宏光(由通用公司(General Motors)与两家本土企业合作)和长安之星2代(福特(Ford)与长安)。比亚迪是该名单上唯一完完全全的中国品牌。Market forces are asserting themselves elsewhere. BYD and Daimler have linked up to create the Denza; Chery and Jaguar Land Rover signed a deal in 2012, with production due this year. If the government wants domestic brands to succeed, it might reconsider which champions it backs.市场力量在其他方面也显示出威力。比亚迪和戴姆勒(Daimler)合作创造了Denza;奇瑞和捷豹路虎(Jaguar Land Rover)在2012年签订了合约,定于今年投产。如果中国政府想让本土品牌成功,可能要重新考虑应当持哪些冠军。 /201408/322683

It#39;s no secret that U.S. home prices have enjoyed a healthy rebound in 2013 after the nightmarish 33% drop over the previous five years that triggered an orgy of mortgage defaults and wealth destruction. These days, monthly home-price reports regularly show double-digit percentage jumps over the year-earlier period, whether it#39;s the 13.3% annual increase for September of the Samp;P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index or the 12.2% annual rise for October logged by CoreLogic#39;s home-price index.我们都知道,在之前五年出现33%的噩梦般暴跌,并触发抵押贷款违约和财富蒸发狂潮后,美国住房价格2013年出现了健康回升。近日来,月度住房价格数据常常会显示两位数的同比增幅,9月份Samp;P/Case-Shiller 20个城市综合房价指数(Samp;P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index)同比升幅高达13.3%,而房地产市场统计公司CoreLogic的10月份住房价格指数年升幅达到12.2%。Yet, at least some observers question how much longer the home-price recovery can continue. A jump in mortgage rates along with the torrid increases in home prices have hurt transaction volume some. The market has been overly dependent on all-cash buyers such as vulture funds, which earlier this year accounted for about a third of all sales. What will happen when they have eaten their fill? Increasingly, the home-price growth will depend on conventional buyers, who must borrow from a mortgage-lending industry that is still imposing stringent lending standards on new mortgages.然而,至少有部分观察人士质疑住房价格的回升势头还能持续多久。抵押贷款利率的攀升以及住房价格的飙升已在一定程度上影响了成交量。市场对秃鹫基金(今年早些时候占总销量的三分之一左右)等全现金买家过度依赖。如果它们的需求已经饱和,又会发生什么情况呢?住房价格的上涨将更多地取决于传统购房者,这类购房者必须从抵押贷款行业借钱,而这些行业对新抵押贷款施行的标准依然苛刻。Still, after talking to various industry experts and analyzing disparate data, Barron#39;s thinks that home-price appreciation should continue for the next three years, albeit at a slower pace than the double-digit increases seen this year.不过,在与多位业内专家进行探讨,并对不同数据进行分析后,《巴伦周刊》(Barron#39;s)认为,未来三年住房价格的上涨势头应该会持续下去,尽管增速会低于2013年的两位数增幅。We claim some bragging rights on the subject: In two cover stories last year #39;Home Prices Ready to Rebound#39; in the March 19 issue and #39;Happy at Last#39; in the Sept. 10 issue we not only called the imminent recovery but hit the timing of it right on the screws.我们在这个问题上是有夸口资本的:在2012年的两篇封面文章中(分别为3月19日刊登的《房价即将反弹》(Home Prices Ready to Rebound)和9月10日刊登的《房价终现走高势头》(Happy at Last)),我们不仅预见房地产市场复苏在即,而且精准地预测出复苏的时间。To be sure, forecasting markets is an unforgiving and somewhat foolhardy task. And experts#39; three-year projections for home prices vary all over the lot. Ingo Winzer of Local Market Monitor, which tracks more than 300 U.S. metro markets, is looking for price growth of about 7% over each of the next three years, while CoreLogic, the real-estate statistical firm, expects price increases of 4.7% in 2014, 4% in 2015, and 1.9% in 2016.当然,预测市场走向是一种难以驾驭,还有些莽撞的任务。专家们对未来三年住房价格的预期也是千差万别。房地产市场分析公司Local Market Monitor(该公司对美国逾300个都会市场进行追踪)的因戈#12539;文泽尔(Ingo Winzer)预计,未来三年每年的房价涨幅都将达到7%左右,而CoreLogic则预计2014年房价将上涨4.7%,2015年和2016年则分别上涨4%和1.9%。For the sake of conservatism, we#39;re hewing to the middle range, looking for home-price jumps of 5% in each of the first two years and, perhaps, just 3% in 2016, as new construction picks up to bolster supply and more empty-nest baby boomers put their houses on the market to unlock trapped home equity. These projections somewhat mirror those of Moody#39;s Analytics. #39;The U.S. is clearly in a home-price up-cycle that has a lot of room to run,#39; says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody#39;s Analytics.为保守起见,我们遵循采用中间值的原则,预计未来两年住房价格每年均攀升5%,2016年涨幅可能仅为3%,因新建住宅的增加将扩大供应,加之有更多空巢婴儿潮一代会将自己的房子挂牌出售,为房屋 资产解套。这些预期可以说与研究公司Moody#39;s Analytics的预期是一致的。Moody#39;s Analytics的首席经济学家马克#12539;赞迪(Mark Zandi)称:“美国显然处于房价上涨周期,未来还有许多上涨空间。”A constellation of factors revolves around our relatively upbeat forecast on home prices. Upswings in home prices, like the one that has just begun, tend to run in five-to-10-year cycles, due to market inefficiency arising from the inertia of home buyers#39; expectations.我们对房价的预期之所以比较乐观是基于一系列因素。住房价格的上涨周期(比如刚刚开始的本轮上涨周期)往往会持续五到10年,因为购房者的预期惯性会导致市场效率低下。Another positive: Homes are still within reach of many buyers. True, housing is somewhat less affordable now than it was in the past five years, after the recent run-up in prices and higher mortgage rates since the spring the rate on a 30-year conforming mortgage is 4.5%, up from 3.5% in the spring. But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which compares median incomes with median home prices in different locales, homes are still more affordable now than in any of the previous 40 years before the bust. This, of course, is the result of the virtually unprecedented home-price collapse.另一项利好是:房价仍在许多购房者的承受范围之内。在经过近期的房价上涨和2013年春季以来抵押贷款利率的上升(30年期标准类抵押贷款利率目前为4.5%,高于春季的3.5%)之后,当前住房价格确实没有过去五年那么便宜了。但根据美国全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors, 简称NAR)的数据(该数据对比了不同地区的收入中值与房价中值),目前住房价格仍比金融危机之前40年中的任何一年都要适中。当然,这是由住房价格史无前例的大滑坡导致的。Also lending strength to the market is the fact that much of the shadow inventory homes in the foreclosure pipeline or those with seriously delinquent mortgages has been sharply reduced. According to NAR economist Lawrence Yun, that inventory has dropped from nearly 10% of the U.S.#39;s 50 million mortgages in 2009 to 5.6% of the total today.此外,“影子库存”(止赎房屋以及抵押贷款严重违约的房屋)大幅减少也是市场提振因素。NAR的经济学家Lawrence Yun表示,“影子库存” 2009年占美国5,000万按揭房的近10%,目前该比例降至5.6%。By Yun#39;s reckoning, distressed sales by lenders, or by delinquent homeowners with the approval of their lenders, currently account for about 15% of all home sales, compared with a third of all sales during the bust years of 2008, 2009, and 2010. Distress sales weigh not only directly on home-price indexes they typically sell at about a 17% discount to homes of comparable size and quality but they also blight the appraised values of entire neighborhoods.Yun估计,贷款机构或违约房主经贷款机构同意而进行的降价急售目前占住房销售总量的15%左右,而2008、2009和2010年的衰退阶段占比为三分之一。降价急售不仅直接拖累住房价格指数(它们的售价一般比相同面积和质量的住房低17%左右),而且有损整个街区住房的估价。The supply of homes for sale, as any frustrated home buyer can attest, has also dropped to rock-bottom levels. The current inventory number, according to the NAR, stands at about five months#39; supply at the current sales pace, compared with a more normal level of about 10 months.待售住房供应(任何一位失望的购房者都可以作)也降到了谷底。NAR的数据显示,以当前的售房速度计算,现有存量约相当于五个月的供应量,而比较正常的水平是10个月左右。The supply constraints don#39;t figure to improve dramatically, at least not over the next two years. New-home construction (both single- and multifamily) is now limping back to a pace of about one million new units next year, and not much more the following year. That#39;s well above the 550,000 new homes built in 2009 as the Great Recession hit home-building with particular ferocity. But housing starts need to hit at least 1.5 million, according Moody#39;s Zandi, or perhaps l.7 million, in order to meet current population growth, net immigration, the replacement of obsolescent housing stock, and demand that has built up during the housing bust.供应面的制约估计不会出现显著改善,至少未来两年不会。预计2014年新建住宅(包括单户和多户型住宅)将回落至100万套左右,明年也不会比这多很多。这一数字远高于2009年大衰退(Great Recession)猛烈冲击住宅建筑业时的55万套新建住宅。但Moody#39;s Analytics的赞迪称,新屋开工数至少要达到150万套乃至170万套才能满足当前人口增长、 移民和更换老旧住宅的需要以及住房市场衰退期间积聚的需求。After all, no supply factor is as crucial to the health and balance of the housing market as new homes, even though in a typical year existing-home sales represent about 75% of all residential sales.虽然成屋销售一般占年住宅销售总量的75%左右,但毕竟没有什么供应面因素对住房市场健康和平衡的重要性能与新建住房匹敌。Lastly, housing prices figure to be bolstered by significant pent-up demand over the next couple of years, particularly if lenders loosen credit standards and mortgage rates remain well behaved. Household formations young adults moving to their own abodes from mom and dad#39;s basement or from cramped apartments shared with friends is finally starting to revive after being in the deep freeze since 2007, running at about a half-million a year over the five-year period ended in 2011. With improved employment prospects and income growth, new household formations figure to hit a more-normal annual rate of about 1.1 million over the next three years.最后,未来几年受抑制需求的大量释放会对房价构成撑,尤其是在贷款机构放松信贷标准,抵押贷款利率保持稳定的情况下。自立门户(年轻人从父母家的地下室或者与朋友合租的狭小公寓搬入自己的住所)2007年以来一度坠入冰点(在截至2011年的五年里,每年仅为50万左右),现在终于开始回暖。随着就业前景的改善和收入的增加,预计新增自立门户者数量在未来三年里将趋于正常,达到每年110万左右的水平。To be sure, some of these new entrants into the housing market will rent rather than buy homes or apartments. But in a sense that doesn#39;t matter. Rentals contribute to home-price levels and new-housing starts just as surely as outright purchases do, since all such real estate is owned by someone.当然,这些进入住房市场的新人有些会选择租房,而不是购买独栋住房或公寓。但从某种意义上来说,买房还是租房并不重要。和直接购买一样,租赁也有助于提振住房价格水平和新屋开工数,因为所有这些房产都会由某位房主所有。Tight credit standards could, of course, inhibit future housing demand some. According to David Blitzer, managing director of Samp;P Dow Jones Indices and maven of the Samp;P/Case-Shiller Indexes, a lot of potential home buyers are finding mortgages difficult to obtain because of onerous down-payment requirements. Likewise, lenders are demanding higher credit scores than before 2003, when existing lending requirements were deemed prudent, says Blitzer. In today#39;s market, short employment records and various credit-record dings make it tougher for buyers to qualify for a mortgage.当然,严格的信贷标准会对未来的住房需求构成一定抑制。标普道琼斯指数公司(Samp;P Dow Jones Indices)的董事总经理、Samp;P/Case-Shiller指数专家戴维#12539;布利策(David Blitzer)称,许多潜在购房者发现很难获得抵押贷款,因为首付要求很高。布利策表示,与之类似,贷款机构对信用分数的要求也比2003年以前高(当时将现行贷款要求视为审慎的要求)。在当今的市场上,短期雇佣记录和各种不良信用记录加大了购房者满足抵押贷款要求的难度。Also, mortgage rates seem destined to go higher over the next three years with the tapering in Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Unhelpful on that score was the recent announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be charging higher fees at the start of 2014 to guarantee mortgages of borrowers with lower credit scores and an inability to put up the full 20% down payments on home purchases.此外,随着美国联邦储备委员会(简称Fed)抵押贷款持券购买规模的逐步缩减,未来三年抵押贷款利率走高应该是必然的。而房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)近期推行的举措也是一项不利因素,两家机构宣布,从2014年年初开始,将对信用分数较低,无力全额付20%购房首付款的借款者收取更高的抵押贷款担保费用。Yet, higher mortgage rates won#39;t be a deal breaker unless they rise markedly, which could prove to be a psychological barrier. Likewise, most up-cycles in home prices tend to last five to 10 years because of inherent momentum in residential real- estate prices. The steady increases in home-equity levels of the past year have triggered a virtuous cycle that will continue to boost prices in the future.不过,抵押贷款利率的上升不会成为关键问题,除非上升幅度非常大(可能会成为一种心理障碍)。类似的,受住宅房地产价格的内在动能影响,房价上涨周期大都会持续五到10年。过去一年住房 值水平的稳步增长已经触发了一轮良性循环,未来会继续推动价格上涨。And perhaps most important, home prices were battered so badly during the recent home real-estate depression that they seemingly have nowhere to go but up.此外,最重要的也许是,住房价格在近期的住宅地产衰退中受到沉重打击,应该已经没有下跌的空间,而只会走高。Forget the gaudy year-over-year monthly price jumps of over 20% reported by the likes of Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami Dade County. According to a CoreLogic analysis, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami were, as of the second quarter, still 39.9%, 50.2%, and 42%, respectively, below their vertiginous price peaks.菲尼克斯(Phoenix)、(Las Vegas)和迈阿密戴德县(Miami Dade County)等地的房价每月同比涨幅超过20%,但把这些花哨的数字抛在脑后吧。根据CoreLogic的分析,截至2013年第二季度,菲尼克斯、和迈阿密的房价仍较它们令人目眩的价格峰值分别低39.9%、50.2%和42%。The CoreLogic second-quarter numbers contained other surprises, as well. While such real-estate disaster areas as Fort Myers Cape Coral in Florida and Riverside and Stockton in California were about 50% below peak values, the San Francisco San Mateo Redwood market had aly recovered to just 7.6% off peak, while Boston-Quincy is just 10.9% below peak level. The latter two markets were obviously aided by strength in the most desirable neighborhoods of these coastal cities.CoreLogic第二季度的数据还有其他令人意想不到的因素。尽管佛罗里达州的迈尔斯堡-开普科勒尔(Fort Myers Cape Coral)以及加州的里弗赛德(Riverside)和斯托克顿(Stockton)等房地产灾区房价较峰值低50%左右,但旧金山- 马特奥-雷德伍德(San Francisco San Mateo Redwood)的市场已经回升,目前仅较峰值低7.6%,而波士顿-昆西(Boston-Quincy)仅较峰值水平低10.9%。后两个沿海城市市场显然是受市内最热社区的房地产走强提振。And a number of metro areas have aly returned to peak-value prices, largely because they avoided the last price boom or got a nice boost from recent secular economic developments. Real estate in Texas (Houston, Dallas Fort Worth, San Antonio, Beaumont, and Amarillo) and Oklahoma (Tulsa and Oklahoma City) has profited mightily from the energy boom, as have Fargo and Bismarck in North Dakota and Rapid City in South Dakota.此外,许多都会区的房价已经回升至峰值,在很大程度上是因为这些地区的房价在上次的房地产热潮中并未上涨,或者受到近期经济大发展的有力提振。德克萨斯州(休斯敦(Houston)、达拉斯-沃思堡(Dallas Fort Worth)、 安东尼奥(San Antonio)、蒙特(Beaumont)和阿马里洛(Amarillo))和俄克拉何马州(塔尔萨(Tulsa)和俄克拉何马城(Oklahoma City))的房地产大大得益于能源业的繁荣,北达科他州的法戈(Fargo)和俾斯麦(Bismarck)以及南达科他州的拉皮德城(Rapid City)也是一样。The state of Iowa; Honolulu; Louisville, Ky.; Buffalo, N.Y.; Great Falls, Mont.; and Erie, Pa. (on the fringe of the Marcellus Shale) were also at new price highs in the second quarter.艾奥瓦州、火奴鲁鲁(Honolulu)、肯塔基州路易斯维尔(Louisville)、纽约州布法罗(Buffalo)、蒙大拿州大瀑布城(Great Falls)以及宾夕法尼亚州伊利(Erie)(位于马塞卢斯页岩(Marcellus Shale)边缘)2013年第二季度也创出了房价新高。The table on the previous page includes the three-year home-price projections of Ingo Winzer of Local Market Monitor. His methodology involves establishing equilibrium home prices for each market, or the price for housing that the area#39;s per capita income can comfortably support. Other inputs also enter into his calculations, including local unemployment rates, in- or out-migration, and market momentum.Local Market Monitor的文泽尔对未来三年的房价给出了乐观的预期。他的计算方法包括为每个市场建立均衡住房价格,即该地区人均收入能够轻松撑的住房价格。他在计算中还考虑到其他因素,包括当地失业率、居民迁入或迁出以及市场动能。It#39;s the last factor that has him somewhat worried over the bullish cast of his forecast of 6.9%, 7.1%, and 7.1% growth over the next three years, beginning in the third quarter of this year. He said his numbers may have been #39;polluted#39; by large volumes of distressed sales in the past, which tend to exaggerate the current increases.让他对自己的乐观预期(他预计从2013年第三季度开始,未来三年的房价涨幅会分别达到6.9%、7.1%和7.1%)感到有些担心的是最后一项因素。他说,他的数据可能受到过去大量降价急售的房产“污染”,这会放大当前的涨幅。Yet he is confident that he has the direction of the trend in U.S. home prices right, if not its absolute magnitude or speed.但他坚信自己对美国住房价格走向的把握是正确的,虽然在绝对数量或速度上会有一定出入。And that#39;s great news for growth in household net worth, construction employment, gross domestic product, and perhaps most important, homeowner peace of mind.这对家庭 资产、建筑业就业以及国内生产总值的增长都是重大利好,而最重要的也许是,房市的回暖能让房主心态更加平和。 /201401/272921

How are we to understand last week’s events in Paris? Why are people prepared to kill and die for their beliefs? How should liberal democracies respond? Many people must be asking themselves these questions. A remarkable man, Eric Hoffer, addressed them in a book published in 1951: The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements . The ideas in his book, developed in response to Nazism and communism, echo powerfully today.我们该如何理解上周发生在巴黎的恐怖事件?人们为何会准备为了自己的信仰杀人或赴死?自由民主该如何回应?一定有很多人都在问自己。一位杰出的作家——埃里克#8226;霍弗(Eric Hoffer)曾在其1951年出版的《狂热分子:群众运动圣经》(The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements)一书中阐述了这些问题。书中的观点针对的是纳粹主义和共产主义,但对如今的问题也可作有力的回应。Hoffer was born at the turn of the 20th century and died in 1983. He worked in restaurants, as a migrant farmhand, as a gold-prospector and, for 25 years, as a longshoreman in San Francisco. Self-taught, he could penetrate to the core of a topic in brilliant and limpid sentences. The True Believer is among my favourite books. It is once again an invaluable guide.霍弗出生在20世纪之初,逝于1983年。他曾在餐厅工作,当过农场工人、金矿勘探工,并在旧金山当了25年的码头工人。他自学成才,能用才华横溢而又简单明了的句子,深入浅出地参透问题的核心。《狂热分子》是我最喜欢的书籍之一。如今它再次成为宝贵的指导。Who, then, is a true believer? Said and Cherif Kouachi and Amedy Coulibaly, the men responsible for last week’s terrorist attacks in Paris, were true believers. So are those active in al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) or Boko Haram. So, once, were Nazis and committed communists. True believers, argues Hoffer, are not characterised by the content of their faith, but by the nature of its claims. Their beliefs claim absolute certainty and demand absolute loyalty. True believers are those who accept those claims and welcome those demands. They are prepared to kill and to die for their cause, because its success in the world is more important to them than their lives or indeed anybody’s life. The true believer is therefore a fanatic.那么,谁才是狂热分子?上周在巴黎进行恐怖袭击的萨伊德#8226;库阿奇(Said Kouachi)、切里夫#8226;库阿奇(Cherif Kouachi)和阿米迪#8226;库利巴利(Amedy Coulibaly)是狂热分子。基地组织、塔利班、“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)或科圣地(Boko Haram)的激进分子也是。过去的纳粹分子和狂热的共产主义者也是。霍弗认为,狂热分子并非以他们的信仰内容定性,而是以其信仰所宣称内容的本质来判断。他们的信仰宣称绝对的确定,要求绝对的忠诚。狂热分子是那些欣然接受这些宣称和要求的人。他们随时准备为了事业杀人或赴死,因为对他们来说,事业在全世界取得成功比他们甚至任何人的生命更重要。因此他们是狂热的。The fanatic is a familiar character in history. Fanaticism is born of temperament, not ideas. The fanatical temperament can express itself in many different ways. Hoffer’s was an age of secular religions. Reality killed the religions that promised salvation on earth. But it cannot kill religions that promise eternity. The latter are now, once again, the most powerful forms of belief, though nationalism may yet run them close.狂热分子在历史上屡见不鲜。狂热主义是情绪而非思想的产物。狂热情绪的表现方式有很多种。霍弗所处的是一个世俗宗教的时代。现实杀死了那些许诺拯救世人的宗教。但它杀不死那些承诺永生的宗教。如今,后者再一次成为最强势的信仰形式,尽管民族主义可能终将赶上来。Indeed, religion and nationalism have frequently reinforced one another: God, after all, is so often held to be on “our side”. Thus, Hoffer states that “in modern times nationalism is the most copious and durable source of mass enthusiasm and that nationalist fervour must be tapped if the drastic changes projected and initiated by revolutionary enthusiasm are to be consummated”.实际上,宗教和民族主义经常彼此强化:毕竟,上帝经常被认为在“我们这边”。因此,霍弗指出,“在现代,民族主义是群众热情最丰富、最持久的源泉,而且由革命热情谋划和发起的社会剧变要想取得成功,必须利用民族主义狂热”。One of Hoffer’s important insights is that it is not poverty that turns someone into a true believer; it is frustration. It is a sense that one deserves far better. It is not surprising that some of those engaged in terrorism are petty criminals. Hoffer argues “that the frustrated predominate among the early adherents of all mass movements and that they usually join of their own accord”.霍弗的一个重要深刻见解是,使一个人成为狂热分子的不是贫穷,而是挫败感,是一种认为自己值得更好生活的感觉。一些加入恐怖主义的人是轻罪犯,这不足为奇。霍弗认为,“所有群众运动的早期追随者中,挫败者都占主导地位,而且他们通常是自愿加入的。”Among their characteristics is that they may feel they do not fit into their societies. This is not unlikely to be the case for some children of immigrant minorities. Their attachment to the culture of their family’s origin and identification with the culture of their family’s destination are both quite likely to be fragile.他们的特征之一是,可能感觉无法融入自己的社会。这种想法可能出现在一些少数族裔移民的孩子身上。他们对家庭原籍地文化的归属感,以及对所在国文化的认同感,可能都相当脆弱。What then does the belief offer? In essence, it offers an answer: it tells the adherents what to think, how to feel and what to do. It provides an all-embracing community in which to live. It offers a reason for living, killing and dying. It replaces emptiness with fullness, and aimlessness with purpose. It offers a cause. This is sometimes noble and sometimes base, but it is a cause, and that is what matters.那信仰又能提供些什么?从本质上说,它给人们提供了一个:它告诉信徒去思考什么、怎样感受以及该做什么。它提供了一个包容所有的集体,供信徒生活。它提供了一个活着、杀戮和死亡的理由。它用充实代替空虚,用目的代替盲目。它提供了一项事业,有时高尚、有时卑劣,但终归是事业,这才是最重要的。“All mass movements generate in their adherents a#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;proclivity for united action,” notes Hoffer. “All of them, irrespective of the doctrine they preach#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;, breed fanaticism, enthusiasm, fervent hope, hatred and intolerance.” All demand “blind faith and single-hearted allegiance”.“所有的群众运动都会在其追随者中产生一种对集体行动的嗜好,”霍弗指出,“无论它们宣扬的教义是什么,所有群众运动都会催生疯狂、热情、强烈的希望、憎恨和偏执。”所有的群众运动都要求“盲目的信仰和一心一意的忠诚。”Communism has waned. So, in many places, has secularism. Religion has taken its place. The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of secular rulers — particularly corrupt secular despots — has encouraged this revival. But western secular democracies are also vulnerable to assaults from true believers in militant Islamism. Wars may control them. But violence will not eliminate them, as the west has learnt in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The enemy is not “terrorism”, it is the idea of which terrorism is the fruit. Deterring people willing to die is hard. Killing ideas is hard. Killing religious ideas is nigh on impossible. If such ideas are to wane, they will do so only at the hands of more attractive ideas. Possibly, the more extreme might perish of exhaustion. But this could take a long time. Remember that Luther’s ideas triggered 130 years of religious wars in Europe. It is a disturbing precedent.共产主义已式微。在很多地方,世俗主义也一样。宗教取代了世俗主义的位置。世俗统治者——特别是腐朽的世俗暴君——在道义和智慧上的垮台,刺激了宗教的复活。但是,西方世俗民主国家也容易受到激进伊斯兰主义狂热分子的攻击。战争或许可以控制他们。但是,正如西方国家从伊拉克和阿富汗战争中吸取的教训,暴力不会彻底消灭他们。“恐怖主义”不是敌人,育恐怖主义的思想才是。打消人们赴死的意愿是困难的。消灭观念是困难的。消灭宗教观念则几乎是不可能的。想让这些观念逐渐消失,只能借助于更具吸引力的观念。更极端的观念可能只能等待其势竭而亡。但这可能需要很长时间。别忘了马丁#8226;路德(Martin Luther)的思想曾引发了欧洲长达130年的宗教战争。这是个令人不安的先例。What is to be done? I claim no expertise in this area. But I claim at least an interest: that of a citizen of a liberal democracy, which I very much wish to remain so. My answers are as follows.我们应该做些什么?我不认为自己在这个领域具备专业知识。但是至少我认为这与我息息相关:我是一个自由民主国家的公民,而且我非常希望一直这样。我的如下所述:First, accept that we are playing the long game of containment.第一,我们玩的是一个长期的围堵游戏,接受这个现实。Second, recognise that the heart of the struggle is elsewhere. The west can help. But it cannot win those wars.第二,斗争的核心在别处,认清这一点。西方国家可以提供帮助。但是它们赢不了这些战争。Third, offer the lived idea of equality as citizens as an alternative to violent jihad.第三,宣传公民平等这一有生命力的理念,来取代暴力圣战的想法。Fourth, appreciate and respond to the frustrations many now feel.第四,理解很多人现在体会到的挫败感,并作出回应。Fifth, accept the need for measures to provide security. But remember that absolute safety is never achievable.第五,承认必须采取措施提供安全。但是要记住,绝对安全是永远不可能实现的。Finally, remain true to our beliefs, since without them we have nothing to offer in this struggle. We must not abandon either the rule of law or the ban on torture. Once we do, we have aly lost this war of ideals and ideas.最后一点,忠于我们的信仰,因为除了这些信仰,我们在这场斗争中没有别的武器。我们绝对不能废除法治或者对酷刑的禁令。如果我们这样做,我们便已经输掉了这场关于理想与思想的战争。True believers do, once again, want to do us harm. But the threat they pose is not comparable to the ones that liberal democracy survived in the 20th century. We should recognise the dangers, but not overreact. In the end, this too will pass.狂热分子会想要再一次伤害我们。但是他们所构成的威胁,与自由民主在20世纪战胜的那些威胁相比不可同日而语。我们应该认识到危险,但不应该过于恐惧。最终,这些也将成为过去。 /201501/355068

  • 华龙报厦门矫正牙齿要多少钱
  • 厦门地区彩光祛痘价格
  • 福建厦门欧菲美容医院属于几甲等医院
  • 时空养生厦门做光子嫩肤要多少钱
  • 中国大夫在厦门市妇幼保健医院祛胎记
  • 厦门中医院属于几级?
  • QQ爱问厦门丰胸假体
  • 宁德市中医医院咨询专线
  • 厦门怎样除去眼袋
  • 华龙健康欧式双眼皮
  • 在厦门最好的抽脂减肥医院快乐资讯
  • 厦门吸脂一个部位多少钱
  • 厦门哪里看牙齿最好69对话厦门玻尿酸除皱哪家医院好
  • 厦门激光去疤痕价钱
  • 在厦门地区人民医院做隆胸手术多少钱知道爱问翔安区妇幼保健医院脱毛手术多少钱
  • 福建省厦门妇女医院几级飞信息
  • 中国中文厦门祛胎记要多少钱
  • 厦门市174医下午几点上班
  • 在厦门市仙岳医院去痘多少钱
  • 厦门一针除皱多少钱
  • 厦门大学附属厦门眼科中心医生值班求医乐园厦门鼻部整形机构
  • 厦门欧菲整形医院激光去痘多少钱中国新闻
  • 漳州吸脂减肥多少钱
  • QQ分类福建省厦门欧菲美容是正规的吗
  • 厦门市欧菲医院光子嫩肤手术多少钱
  • 厦门双眼皮医院排名豆瓣专家
  • 医苑晚报在厦门韩式翘睫双眼皮
  • 厦门抽脂减肥要多少钱
  • 漳平割双眼皮多少钱
  • 福建省人民医院激光去红血丝多少钱
  • 相关阅读
  • 明天开始一年内赚的盆满钵满穷的只剩钱的生肖
  • 百倍的热情千遍的呵护万分的用心品鉴华菱星马运煤专线上
  • 洛阳城市建设勘察设计院有限公司招聘信息
  • 阿梅你真的学了中医比较擅长是哪一方面的?你是在乡下学的吗
  • 深圳互金协会发布通知严禁成员单位开展首付贷等违规业务
  • 乌兰察布市召开十三五人才发展规划座谈会
  • 《梦想的声音》本周逆势上扬田馥甄浓妆惊艳颠覆
  • 特朗普要废了耶伦?华尔街的小心脏都要跳出来了!
  • 车市之星专访上海锦俊总经理尤悦梅
  • 地铁时代常青城暂无房源可售(图)
  • 编辑:同城面诊

    关键词:福州市人民医院祛疤痕多少钱

    更多

    更多