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2019年09月17日 10:24:05|来源:国际在线|编辑:挂号爱问

There is no shortage of critics who confidently attribute China’s rise to the forceful intervention of the state in the economy. But the ranks of policy makers and commentators decrying Beijing’s brand of state capitalism are wrong – and, worse, they risk provoking short-sighted and counterproductive responses.坚信中国崛起缘于国家强势干预经济的批评人士为数不少,由政策制定者和员们组成的这些批评者强烈谴责北京奉行的国家资本主义。但他们的观点是错误的,而更糟的是,他们可能引发短视和毫无建设性的回应。The reality is that China’s rapid economic ascent is the result of the expanding role of the market and the rise of private businesses. Private companies now account for more than two-thirds of output, up from nothing when reform began in 1978, in an economy that has expanded 25 times in real terms. They account for almost all employment growth in the same period. Private companies are also increasingly the leading contributors to export growth.现实情况是,中国经济快速崛起是市场角色不断扩大和私营企业壮大的结果。在一个实际规模扩大了25倍的经济体中,私营企业贡献的产出比例,从1978年中国开始改革时的零,升至如今的逾三分之二。同期几乎所有的就业增长均来自私营企业。私营企业还日益成为出口增长的主要贡献因素。State companies’ shrinking role has been particularly rapid in manufacturing, which opened up to competition from private businesses in the 1980s. State enterprises’ share of output in the sector is now only a fifth, compared with four-fifths in 1978. Conventional wisdom says state industrial companies have enjoyed a resurgence since the onset of the global financial crisis. In fact, the growth in output of private businesses since 2008 has averaged 18 per cent, twice the pace of expansion of state businesses.中国国有企业的角色,在制造业收缩得尤其快——中国的制造业在上世纪80年代向私营企业放开了竞争。国企在制造业所占产出份额现在只有五分之一,而在1978年则有五分之四。人们普遍认为,自全球金融危机爆发以来,中国国有工业企业如今已经复兴。实际上,自2008年以来私营企业产出年均增长18%,是国企扩张速度的两倍。Underlying the relatively poor performance of state industrial companies is low productivity. Most investment is financed with retained earnings – so private industrial businesses, with a return on assets more than twice that of state companies, can expand more rapidly. This is reinforced by the increasingly commercial behaviour of mostly state-owned banks: in recent years they have lent almost twice as much to private as to state companies.国有工业企业相对疲弱表现的深层根源在于生产率低下。大多数投资资金来自留存利润,因此资产回报率是国企两倍多的私营工业企业能够更为迅速地扩张。大多数国有的行为日益商业化,让私企更加如鱼得水:在最近几年里,它们向私企发放的贷款几乎是发放给国企的两倍。China’s industrial policy is perhaps exemplified best by the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, created in 2003 to oversee the largest state-owned non-financial enterprises. Critics say it favours state companies in an attempt to create national champions that are larger, more powerful and more profitable. But this has failed: the return on assets of Sasac’s companies has plummeted since 2007, and is now below half their cost of capital.创建于2003年、监督各大国有非金融企业的中国国有资产监督管理委员会(SASAC)或许是中国工业政策的最佳体现。批评人士称,国资委青睐大型国企,力图创建更大、更强、更加盈利丰厚的国家冠军企业。但这种努力失败了:自2007年以来国资委监督企业的资产回报率大幅下降,现在还不到其资本成本的一半。The disparity between state and private companies is evident even in the steel industry, identified by Sasac as one industry in which Beijing was to maintain relatively strong control. This seemed an easy task in the mid-2000s, when state companies produced half of all steel output and their efficiency matched that of private companies. But when the annual growth in output fell to an average of just 9 per cent after 2006, compared with its average pace of more than 20 per cent earlier in the decade, state companies’ returns fell sharply. By 2012 they were in the red, and their share of production had fallen below a third. In contrast, the return on assets of private steel companies rose after 2006, reaching a peak of over 10 per cent in 2011 before declining slightly. With private steel companies investing more than twice as much as their state counterparts, their rising output share will continue.即便在被国资委确认为北京要保持相对强有力控制的钢铁行业,也体现出国企和私企之间的差距。在2005年,这似乎是一个轻松的任务:当时全国一半的钢铁由国企生产,它们的效率与私企相当。但是在2006年以后的几年里,年均产出增长率降至9%(该十年的头几年平均增长率超过20%),国企回报率大幅下降。到2012年,它们出现了亏损,产量份额下降至三分之一以下。相比之下,私营钢铁企业的资产回报率在2006年之后出现上升,在2011年达到逾10%的峰值后略有下降。由于私营钢企的投资是国企的两倍,它们的产量份额仍会继续上升。The exception to the rise of private business is in finance, telecoms and other high-tech business services, as well as in upstream oil and gas. In manufacturing, private companies now account for seven times more investment than state ones. But in services the share of state companies’ investment exceeds that of private companies and has declined only very slightly in recent years. Yet the productivity differential favours private service providers by a margin of two to one over state enterprises, suggesting a substantial misallocation of capital.私营企业兴起的例外是在金融、电信、其他高科技商业务行业,以及油气行业的上游领域。在制造业,私企现在的投资份额是国企的7倍。但在务业,国企投资份额超过私企,近几年只是略有下降。然而,私营务提供商的生产率比国企高出一倍,这表明资本配置严重不当。The footprint of state companies is shrinking but, because they earn far less than their cost of capital, they remain a drag on growth. If China enacts economic reforms announced last year – particularly eliminating all but natural monopolies such as power distribution – and making the market the decisive factor in the allocation of resources, private businesses will displace state enterprises in services. That would allow China to sustain a relatively high rate of growth and thus to continue its role as a leading driver of global growth. Those who make policies and predictions based on a fundamental misunderstanding of China’s ascent are likely to miss out.中国国企的地盘正在缩小,但因为它们的利润远低于资本成本,它们依然拖累了增长。如果中国实施去年宣布的经济改革(尤其是打破除电网等自然垄断业务以外的一切垄断),让市场成为资源配置的决定性因素,私企将取代国企在务业的角色。这将让中国保持相对高速的经济增长,从而继续其作为全球增长主要驱动因素的角色。那些对中国崛起有着根本性误解并据此制定政策和作出预测的人很可能错失机遇。The writer is a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and#8201;author of ‘Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China’注:本文作者是彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute)研究员,著有《市场高于毛泽东:中国私营企业的崛起》(Markets over Mao, the Rise of Private Business in China)一书。 /201409/328354

What should western politicians be most worried about: growth, inequality, the environment, education? To judge from today’s discourse, the answer seems to be none of the above. Instead, in the past month, both Barack Obama, US president, and David Cameron, UK prime minister, have made big speeches on immigration. At the weekend Swiss voters rejected a proposal virtually to end the flow of incomers to their country. But anti-immigration parties have made strong gains in a variety of other European nations, including Sweden and Italy, in the past year.西方政界人士最应该担忧的是什么?增长、不平等、环境还是教育?从当前流行话题来判断,似乎不在其中。相反,一个多月来,美国总统巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama)和英国首相戴维#8226;卡梅伦(David Cameron)都就移民问题发表了重要讲话。日前,瑞士选民否决了一项几乎不再接纳新移民的提案。但在过去一年中,反移民政党在其他多个欧洲国家——包括瑞典和意大利——取得了重大进展。Immigration is now clearly at the very centre of political debate in the west. But, in the past couple of weeks, the European and US debates have branched off in different directions.眼下,移民问题显然是西方政治辩论的核心。但在过去几周内,欧洲和美国在这一问题上的辩论走向出现了分化。Two weeks ago Mr Obama announced plans to shield millions of illegal immigrants from potential deportation. For all the bitter divisions his proposals stirred up, the likelihood is that they will ultimately help to push the American debate in a more liberal direction.不久前,奥巴马宣布了将使数百万非法移民免于被驱逐的计划。尽管他提议采取的措施激起了很大争议,最终却可能有助于推动美国移民辩论朝着自由主义的方向演变。In Europe, by contrast, the rise of populist anti-immigration parties, such as Britain’s UK Independence party and France’s National Front, is still driving the debate to the right.相比之下,英国独立党(UKIP)和法国国民阵线(National Front)等欧洲民粹主义反移民政党的崛起正将移民辩论推向更右倾的方向。Mr Cameron announced plans to restrict welfare benefits for legal migrants from the rest of the EU and to force those who fail to find a job to leave the country. Across the Channel, meanwhile, Nicolas Sarkozy, the former (and possibly future) president of France, has called for the repeal of the Schengen rules that have dismantled frontier controls within the EU.卡梅伦最近宣布的计划将限制来自欧盟其他国家的合法移民的福利,并强制那些没有找到工作的移民离境。与此同时,在英吉利海峡的另一边,法国前总统(或许以后还会再度担任总统)尼古拉#8226;萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)呼吁废止在欧盟境内取消边境管控的申根协定。Despite the differences in rhetoric, the immigration numbers across the rich world are strikingly similar. Estimates by the OECD of the foreign-born population in its member states in 2011 was 11-13 per cent for the US, the UK, Germany and France. Switzerland, with a foreign-born population of 27.3 per cent, is a real outlier – which might account for the special vehemence of the debate there.尽管论调不同,发达国家的移民数据却惊人地相似。据经合组织(OECD)估测,2011年在其成员国中,美国、英国、德国和法国的外国出生人口比例均在11%到13%之间。而瑞士的这一比例达27.3%,是发达国家中真正的异数,或许这也解释了为何瑞士的移民辩论格外激烈。Rich countries are clearly a magnet for migrants from poorer nations and the pull is growing stronger. According to the OECD, the flow of global migration doubled between 2000 and 2010, compared to the preceding decade.对来自较贫穷国家的移民来说,富裕国家显然就像一块磁石,而且吸引力还在不断增强。根据经合组织的数据,2000年到2010年间,全球移民的流动规模比上个十年翻了一番。Globalisation has made both travel and communication much easier. The comparative wealth of western Europe or North America is broadcast across the world. Established immigrant communities in developed nations can help newcomers and provide legal routes into the country. And, where there is no legal route, there are always people- smugglers and the black economy.全球化使旅行和通讯更加便利。西欧和北美的相对富裕在世界各地可谓家喻户晓。发达国家成熟的移民社区能帮助新来的移民,并提供进入该国的合法途径。而且,就算没有合法途径,也总会有蛇头和黑市经济。Immigrants often do jobs that locals are unwilling or unable to perform. But they are also routinely blamed for holding down wages and for putting pressure on public services and housing. With levels of inequality rising in the west, it is not hard for populist politicians to argue that limousine liberals are benefiting from cheap, immigrant labour– while evading the social consequences.移民常常从事本地人不愿或不能从事的工作。但人们也时常指责移民拉低了薪资水平,增大了公共务和住房的压力。随着西方的不平等程度持续上升,民粹主义政治人士也就可以很方便地宣称,坐豪车的自由派人士从廉价的移民劳动力中获益——同时还能不引起社会后果。So far, so similar. But the US and European approaches are diverging. Mr Obama has taken on the anti-immigration lobby, casting them as un-American and inhumane. In Britain and the rest of Europe, however, many governments are still promising to “crack down” on immigration, in some form or another – even if political leaders such as Mr Cameron refrain from challenging the EU’s commitment to free movement of labour.到这里,美国和欧洲的情况还很相似。但美欧的策略正在出现差异。奥巴马与反移民游说团体展开了较量,称他们是反美国精神和不人道的。而在英国和欧洲其他地方,许多政府还许诺以某种形式“打击”移民,尽管卡梅伦等政治领袖仍避免挑战欧盟关于劳动力自由流动的承诺。The difference partly reflects the fact that Mr Obama is a centre-left politician and Mr Cameron is a conservative. The US Democrats also see an electoral advantage in luring the Republicans into taking a hard line on immigration, which will alienate Hispanic voters.这种差异部分源于奥巴马是中左翼的政治人士,而卡梅伦是保守主义者。美国民主党人也发现,诱使共和党人在移民问题上采取强硬态度,会让他们疏远西班牙裔选民,在选举上对民主党有利。In Europe the political calculations point in the opposite direction. Mr Cameron fears losing support to Ukip, which has made opposition to mass immigration its central theme. Other centre-right politicians in the EU, such as Mr Sarkozy, also seem most concerned about the threat from the far right.在欧洲,政治考量则指向了相反的方向。卡梅伦担心选民会转而持以反对大量移民为中心议题的英国独立党。欧盟其他中右翼的政治人士,如萨科齐,似乎也极担忧来自极右翼政治势力的威胁。Behind the politics, however, there is also an emerging difference in philosophy. Mr Cameron, Mr Sarkozy and politicians to their right still stress the language of “control”. Their argument is that voters are unhappy about high levels of immigration and that it is their duty to respond.然而,在政治的背后,美欧之间的理念差异也开始浮现。卡梅伦、萨科齐和比他们更偏右的政治人士依然强调“控制”这种措辞。他们的论点是,既然选民对大量移民不满,他们就有责任做出回应。Mr Obama, though, is taking an approach that sounds more fatalistic. He says he will strengthen border controls but adds that “tracking down, rounding up and deporting millions of people isn’t realistic”.奥巴马采取的策略听起来更顺其自然一些。他表示将加强边境管控,但他也说“追查、围堵和驱逐数百万人是不现实的。”Implicit in the Obama argument is the idea that, in the era of globalisation, rich nations are just going to have to get used to the notion that they will continue to be a magnet for migrants from poorer parts of the world. The alternative is to start turning your country into a fortress or a police state.奥巴马的论点中隐含的意思是,在全球化时代,对来自世界更贫穷地方的移民来说,富国将继续保持磁石一般的吸引力,而富国只能去适应这一点。否则就会把国家变成一个堡垒或者极权国家。There are several reasons why the Obama argument might work in the US. As the president pointed out, America was built by immigrants. It is also a continent-sized country that has plenty of space. And it has an established two-party system that makes it harder for single-issue, anti-immigration parties to gain ground.奥巴马的论点可能在美国行得通有几点原因。正如他指出的,美国是移民建立起来的国家,幅员辽阔,地方很大。而且,两党制在美国建立已久,这使单一议题的反移民政党更难在美国取得进展。But none of those conditions prevail on the other side of the Atlantic. As a result, the populist right is likely to make the running in Europe’s immigration debate for some years to come.而大西洋彼岸的国家都不具备这些条件。因此,在接下来的许多年里,民粹主义右翼势力可能还将主导欧洲的移民辩论。 /201412/347318

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