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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年07月17日 10:27:25
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In 2007 I made a bet with a fellow Russian businessman. The price of oil, he told me, would never drop below again. This was the consensus among oilmen at the time. And that, I thought, was the surest sign that the oil price would soon start falling.2007年,我和一位俄罗斯商人朋友打了个赌。他跟我说,油价永远不会再跌0美元以下。这种说法是当时石油商圈子里的普遍观点。但我当时认为,这就是预示油价很快将开始下跌的最肯定信号。I told my acquaintance that the oil price could easily go down to . What determines it, I said, is not supply, demand or the cost of production. Rather, what matters is the mere perception of a potential shortage.我告诉那位朋友,油价可能轻易跌至40美元。我说,决定油价的不是供需关系或生产成本,关键因素反而是对潜在短缺的纯粹感知。The price of oil stayed high only because people believed there was not enough of it to go around. But once people believe that, consumers start looking for an alternative while producers try to pump more of the stuff and then prices fall.油价维持高位,只是因为人们相信石油不够分配。但是,一旦人们相信了这一点,消费者就会开始寻找石油的替代品,石油生产商则会努力开采更多石油,然后,价格就会下跌。I am not a professional oilman and my assumptions were based not on knowledge of geology or the rate of economic growth in China, but on the simple fact that humanity usually finds a way around any obstacle in its path.我并非专业的石油商人,我的设想并非基于地质知识或中国的经济增长率,而是基于一个简单的事实,即人类在前进道路上遇到任何障碍,通常都会找到方法绕过去。While many of my colleagues in Russia and elsewhere are arguing about when the oil price may bounce back, I am convinced that we have entered a new period of low oil prices. It is like alchemy, but in reverse: black gold, a precious substance whose price was determined by its scarcity, has turned into a black, smelly liquid that makes wheels turn. It is not the first time this has happened. The price of oil was relatively stable until the 1970s brought the psychological shock of an embargo imposed by Saudi Arabia on the export of oil to America.我在俄罗斯和其他地区的很多同行都在讨论油价可能会在什么时候反弹,我却深信,我们已经进入一个低油价的全新时代。就像是把普通金属转化为黄金的炼金术一样,但过程正好反过来:石油黑-这种由稀缺程度决定价格的珍贵物质--已经变回了那种能让车轮转动的又黑又臭的液体。这并非石油第一次被打回原形。油价一直相对稳定,直到上世0年代沙特颁布禁运令,禁止石油出口美国,带来了心理冲击。In 1975, the US started its petroleum strategic reserve, contributing to the perception that oil was scarce. Oil producers saw their main objective was to guard their oligopoly. 1975年,美国启动石油战略储备,强化了石油是一种稀缺品的印象。石油生产商认为自己的主要目标就是保卫其寡头垄断地位。没人关心生产效率这类微不足道的小事——许可的分配比这重要得多。No one cared about such trifling matters as efficiency the distribution of licences was far more important. A good lobbyist was worth more to an oil company than a good engineer. To deal with this challenge, developed countries started to invest in energy saving and new technologies, and by the early 1980s this started to yield results.The ensuing fall in oil prices eventually sapped the Soviet Union of its economic lifeblood.对一家石油公司来说,一名优秀的说客比出色的工程师更有用。为了应对这个挑战,发达国家开始投资于能源节约和新技术,到上世纪80年代初,这种投资开始产生成效。随后油价下滑,最终破坏了苏联的经济命脉。Rapid economic growth in China and India in the early 2000s changed the perception about the balance between demand for oil and its scarcity. And once again developed countries with high levels of entrepreneurial freedom set themselves to work on solving the bottleneck.2000年代初,中国和印度经济快速增长,改变了人们对石油需求及其稀缺性之间平衡的认知。与此同时,拥有较高创业自由度的发达国家再一次开始为突破这一瓶颈而努力。There was no single solution, but everyone thought of something: biofuel, wind energy, oil sands, shale.虽然没有单一的解决方法,但每个人都想到了一些对策:生物能源、风胀?油砂、页岩。It was no accident that the countries that led the innovation were liberal market economies with strong property rights, while the countries that wished to thwart these efforts were resentful of competition and riddled with monopolists. They treated private property as a concession that could easily be taken away.不出意外,引领这场革新的国家都是充分保障产权的自由市场经济,而希望挫败这些努力的国家都是憎恶竞争、垄断者遍布的国家。后一种国家把私有财产视为一种很容易被拿走的特权。Political systems based on the distribution of rent demoralise people. Political regimes based on free competition motivate people. It is because of free initiative and competition that humanity can overcome bottlenecks.建立在租金分配基础上的政治制度使人民消沉,而建立在自由竞争基础上的政治体制让人民充满动力。正是因为自由创新和自由竞争,人类才得以突破一个个瓶颈。The reason America has led the way in the production of shale oil and gas is not that it has a lot of shale many other countries have a similar geology. It is that America has a lot of economic freedom.美国之所以能够引领页岩油和页岩气的生产,其原因不在于美国的页岩资源特别丰富——其他很多国家都有类似的地质条件。真正的原因在于,美国拥有极大的经济自由度。This is a precious resource that many other countries lack. Its government does not sell licences for onshore drilling. It lets people buy land, and promises that nobody can take away from you what is yours.经济自由度是一种宝贵的资源,也是其他很多国家所欠缺的。美国政府不出售陆上钻井许可,它允许人们购买土地,并承诺任何人都不能剥夺属于你的东西。The dizzying oil prices of recent years were profoundly abnormal. The fall will turn oil production into a proper business where costs and efficiency matter more than lobbying power. This stands to make the world freer and safer, by reducing the power of illiberal regimes that thrive on oil rents.最近几年油价高得让人头晕目眩,这是极度反常的。油价下滑将使石油生产行业转变为一个正常行业,一个生产成本和效率比游说能力更重要的行业。这能够削减那些靠石油租金而繁荣的不自由政体的实力,让世界变得更加自由和安全。Two years ago, I found myself in Manaus, a unique city in Brazil’s Amazonas, in the middle of the rainforest. In the late 19th century Manaus became one of the richest and most extravagant cities thanks to the rubber it had.两年前,我去了玛瑙斯Manaus),一个位于巴西亚马逊州热带雨林之中的独特城市9世纪末,玛瑙斯因为拥有橡胶而步入全世界最富有、最繁盛的城市之列。It built a splendid Belle époque-style opera house out of Italian marble with vast domes and gilded balconies. But a few years later the seeds of the rubber tree were smuggled out of the Amazon and Brazil lost its monopoly.该市用意大利大理石建造了一座“美好时代”(Belle époque,指欧洲19世纪末至一战爆发前那段和平、繁荣的时期——译者注)风格的富丽堂皇的歌剧院,拥有巨大圆顶和镀金包厢。但是,几年后橡Then the invention of artificial rubber finally buried the entire prosperity of this tropical Paris. Manaus fell into poverty, electricity generation became too expensive and the opera house went dark. It is a powerful lesson to the futility of suppressing competition.胶树的种子被私运出亚马逊雨林,巴西失去了其垄断地位。之后,人造橡胶的发明最终葬送了这座有“热带巴黎”之称的城市的繁荣。玛瑙斯陷入贫困,电力也变得过于昂贵,这座歌剧院陷入黑暗之中。玛瑙斯的教训充分明,抑制竞争是徒劳无益的。The writer is an international businessman and chairman of LetterOne Group and Alfa Group Consortium本文作者为一名跨国商人,担任LetterOne集团及阿尔法集团(Alfa Group)董事长来 /201502/357915

  A senior South Korean official has offered to hold ministerial-level talks with North Korea to discuss ;mutual concerns,; including a reunion of families separated by the Korean War.一名韩国高层官员表示,愿与朝鲜举行部长级会谈,讨论“共同关心的问题”,包括安排一次韩战离散家人团聚活动。Ryo Kihl-jae, the Souths unification minister in charge of North Korean affairs, told a news conference Monday that a formal request had been sent to Pyongyang. He said he is willing to discuss any issues of mutual concern.负责朝鲜事务的韩国统一部部长柳吉在星期一举行的记者会上说,已将一份正式邀请函递交平壤。他表示,愿意与朝鲜方面讨论任何双方共同关心的问题。If agreed to, the talks would take place next month in Pyongyang with Ryos counterpart, Kim Yang Gon.如果平壤做出肯定的答复,柳吉在将于下月在平壤与朝鲜负责韩国事务的官员金养建举行会谈。The two countries had agreed on high-level talks scheduled for two months ago after a surprise visit to Seoul in October by a high-powered delegation from the North. However, North Korea angrily backed out when activists in the South sent anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border via balloons.一个朝鲜重量级代表团十月对首尔进行出人意料的访问,韩朝双方同意举行高层会谈。但韩国活动人士放飞带有反平壤传单的气球后,朝鲜对此举表示愤怒,并搁置了会谈。来 /201412/351377

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  The Federal Reserve is preparing to lift interest rates later this year, but many bond investors predict that chairwoman Janet Yellen will confront a puzzle that stumped one of her most famous predecessors.美联fed)准备今年晚些时候加息,但许多债券投资者预测,美联储主席珍妮特#8226;耶伦(Janet Yellen)将面临一个曾难倒她的一位最著名前任的难题。In 2005 Fed chairman Alan Greenspan then known for his gnomic but omniscient air highlighted how the 10-year Treasury yield had shrugged off hefty increases in the US central bank’s benchmark interest rate, and called it a “conundrum前美联储主席艾伦#8226;格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)以惜字如金但又散发着无所不知的气场闻名005年,时任美联储主席的他强调指出,面对大幅提高的美联储基准利率0年期美国国债收益率无动于衷,并称之为“谜题”。It looks like Ms Yellen could face a conundrum of her own. Although longer-term interest rates have jumped in recent months, the difference between shorter and longer-dated maturities remains low in light of the looming hikes, and the Fed’s desire to also see longer- term rates rise.耶伦看来可能将面临自己的谜题。考虑到即将到来的加息,以及美联储同样希望看到较长期利率上升的愿望,尽管长期利率近几个月已经大幅上升,但较短期限与较长期限债券之间的收益率仍然相差不大。The “spof the 30-year Treasury yield over the five-year yield has climbed from a low of just 102 basis points at the start of the year to 149bps, but that is still well below the 250 bps points touched at the end of 2013. Treasury forwards also indicate that investors are betting on the difference between short and longer-dated yields narrowing again in the coming years.30年期国债与5年期国债的收益率差已经从年初仅102个基点的低位升至149个基点,但这仍远低于2013年底达到50个基点。国债远期合约也表明,投资者正在押注未来几年短期与较长期国债间的收益率差再次缩小。Ms Yellen herself does not appear to expect a replay of the conundrum that befuddled her predecessor. In a recent speech she warned that the “term premiumthe extra interest investors demand for lending over longer maturities has come down dramatically, but expressed more concern that it could rocket higher once the Fed starts raising rates. Indeed, her comments contributed to the sp widening.耶伦自己似乎并未预料到曾让其前任迷惑的难题的再次出现。她在最近一次演讲中警告称,“期限溢价”(term premium,指投资者购买较长期限债券时索取的额外利息)已大幅下降,但对一旦美联储启动加息、期限溢价可能大幅上升表达了更多的担忧。事实上,她的言论已经导致了收益率差的扩大。Yet some indicate she might be too sanguine. In a 2012 paper, Daniel Thornton at the St Louis Fed’s research division, noted that link between the Fed fund rate and the 10-year Treasury yield had actually begun to disconnect as early as the late 1980s.然而,一些人暗示,她可能过于乐观了。在2012年的一篇论文中,圣路易斯联邦储备银St Louis Fed)研究部的丹尼#8226;桑顿(Daniel Thornton)指出,联邦基金利率与10年期美国国债收益率之间的关联,实际上早在上世纪80年代末就已开始脱钩。“The major implication of this research is that the Fed’s interest rate policy may be much less effective than previously thought,he concluded.“这一研究结果的主要揭示在于,美联储利率政策的作用可能远远不及先前的想象,”他总结道。For investors this is entirely unsurprising. They point out that while the US central bank can lift its Fed funds target, longer-term interest rates are mostly determined by longer-term factors, such as the economic outlook, inflation forecasts, demographics or global savings.对投资者来说,这毫不足以为奇。他们指出,虽然美联储能够上调联邦基金目标利率,但较长期利率主要取决于较长期因素,如经济前景、通胀预期、人口结构或全球储蓄。David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, estimates that for every 1 percentage point change in the Fed funds rate the main central bank interest rate target longer-term interest rates on US Treasuries have over the past two decades risen by just 22 basis points on average.根大通资产管JPMorgan Asset Management)首席全球策略师大#8226;凯利(David Kelly)估计,联邦基金利率(美联储主要利率目标)每上个百分点,较长期美国国债收益率在过0年间平均仅上升了22个基点。Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes that the prevailing view among their clients is that the looming rate cycle “once again would show little increase in long term interest rates Indeed, some investors believe that longer-term Treasury yields could actually fall as the Fed tightens monetary policy, as that would signal that the central bank’s officials are serious about controlling inflation, which hurts bond returns.美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的分析师指出,其客户中流行的看法是,即将到来的加息周期“将再次出现长期利率几近于零的增长”。实际上,一些投资者认为,随着美联储收紧货币政策,较长期国债收益率实际可能会下降,因为收紧货币将表明美联储官员们控制通胀的决心,而这会损害债券收益。That would mean that the “yield curveof US interest rates will flatten as longer-term yields stay steady or fall to near short term rates or even invert. “I think it will be very difficult to engineer a steepening of the curve,says Pascal Blanqué, chief investment officer at Amundi, the French asset manager.这意味着,随着较长期收益率保持稳定或下降至接近(甚至反而低于)短期收益率,美国利率的“收益率曲线”将趋于平坦。法国资产管理公司Amundi首席投资官帕斯卡#8226;布朗Pascal Blanqué)说:“我认为,要使这一曲线变陡将非常困难。”Nonetheless, investors should be wary of being too confident that the Fed is powerless in preventing another conundrum. If longer-term Treasury bonds blow raspberries at any interest rate increases, it could encourage the central bank to tighten monetary policy less gently than currently planned.尽管如此,投资者应该避免过于相信美联储无力破解新一轮难题。如果面对任何加息,长期国债都无动于衷,这会鼓励美联储在收紧货币政策时力度比当前计划中的更强些。“If the Fed tightens and the long end actually comes down significantly, then it would embolden the Fed,says Eric Stein of Eaton Vance.亿廷繁世(Eaton Vance)的埃里克#8226;斯泰Eric Stein)说:“如果美联储收紧政策,而长期国债收益率实际上大幅下降,那么这将会使美联储更加大胆。”Moreover, the US central bank still sits on a tn portfolio of Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed bonds acquired in its quantitative easing programme, a potentially potent tool to control monetary policy.此外,美联储仍坐万亿美元的资产组合,包括在量化宽松计划中购买的美国国债、机构债以及抵押贷款持债券,这是控制货币政策的潜在有力工具。While the current assumption is that the Fed will carefully deflate its holdings through a gradual end to reinvesting coupons and repayments, if the Treasury market proves as stubbornly unwilling to climb as it was in the noughties reprising the “Greenspan conundrumthen officials could sanction the sales of some of these assets.虽然目前的假设是,如果事实明美国国债收益率1世纪0年间那样顽固地不愿上升,从而重现“格林斯潘谜题”,那么,美联储官员可能批准出售这些资产中的一部分,美联储将逐步结束对收到的利息和还款进行再投资,而小心地减持这些资产。“Before, Greenspan could say he didn’t have the tools to send the long end up, but now they have tn of bonds they could sell to engineer a steeper curve,Mr Kelly points out.“以前,格林斯潘可以说,他没有手段让较长期国债收益率上升,但现在他们万亿美元的债券可以出售,以将曲线拉陡,”凯利指出。Some investors therefore fear that markets are still far too sanguine about the impact of Fed interest rate increases, and do not see a redux of the flattening yield curve that baffled Mr Greenspan.因此,一些投资者担心,市场对美联储加息的影响仍过于乐观,而没有看到困扰格林斯潘的平坦收益率曲线的回归。“There is far too much complacency in markets,Gibson Smith, chief investment officer for fixed income at Janus, warned a mutual fund conference last week. “We’ve seen a lot of people lulled into believing that interest rates will be low for longer, or even for ever#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;I think we will see steepening across the curve.”在日前的一个共同基金会议上,骏利资产管理基Janus)固定收益业务首席投资官吉布森#8226;史密Gibson Smith)警告称:“现在市场中有太多的自满情绪。我们已经看到很多人被误导,认为利率将会在更长期限或者甚至永久期限上保持在低位……我认为我们将看到整条曲线变陡峭。”来 /201507/385715

  Joko Widodo, the reformist governor of Jakarta, has been elected as the next president of Indonesia, capping a meteoric rise for the 53-year-old furniture salesman turned mayor.雅加达首都特区行政长官、改革派佐科#8226;维多Joko Widodo)被选为印尼下任总统,从而令这位曾经的家具推销员火箭般的升迁历程达到顶峰,他今3岁,是雅加达的市长。The election commission in the world’s third-largest democracy announced on Tuesday that Mr Widodo had beaten his only challenger, former general Prabowo Subianto, by 53 per cent to 47 per cent, with more than 130m votes.印尼选举委员会周二宣布,维多多以53%的得票率、总计.3亿的选票击败了唯一对手、曾任将军的普拉沃#8226;苏比安托(Prabowo Subianto),后者获得了47%的选票。“This is a victory for all the Indonesian people,Mr Widodo said after the results were announced. “I hope this people’s victory will pave the way to an Indonesia that is politically independent, stands on its own feet economically and preserves its culture.”选举结果公布之后,维多多表示:“这是印尼全体人民的胜利。我希望这次人民的胜利能够为政治上独立、经济上自主并保留原有文化的印尼铺平道路。”The news came after an emotional Mr Subianto said he would reject the results on the grounds that the election was “not fair, not just, not clean就在这一消息传出之前,十分情绪化的苏比安托曾表示会拒绝接受选举结果,因为选举“不公平、不公正、不干净”。The self-styled strongman has three days in which to lodge a formal protest with the Constitutional Court but analysts dismissed his attack on the electoral process as unfounded.这位自称强硬的人还有三天时间可以向宪法法Constitutional Court)提出正式抗议,不过分析人士认为他对选举过程的攻击是毫无根据的。“Mr Subianto is clearly struggling to accept defeat after a decade-long struggle to win the presidency,said Paul Rowland, an election expert in Jakarta. “This is the best-run presidential election that Indonesia has ever seen.”维多多是首位来自印尼严密的上流社会圈子之外的总统,他此次胜选点燃了人们心中的希望,希望他能为这个东南亚最大经济体引入急需的改革。The first president to come from outside Indonesia’s tightly knit elite, Mr Widodo’s election victory has sparked hopes that he will be able to introduce much-needed reform of southeast Asia’s biggest economy.尽管苏比安托团队对维多多的抹黑令他经历了一场艰难的选战,但他谦卑的形象、在地方政府改革的成绩以及毫不贪腐的名声都令他成为印尼最受欢迎的政治家。Wijayanto Samirin, an economic adviser to Mr Widodo, said: “Mr Widodo will have the guts to make dramatic changes in policy because he is not weighed down by vested interests.对苏比安托强硬外交措辞颇为担忧的外国投资者表示,维多多行胜于言的风格有助于印尼政府应对十分棘手的结构性问题,比如地域性贪腐、糟糕的基础设施、以及今年规模估计达210亿美元的燃料补贴法案——该法案是印尼财政赤字预计会达到2.4%的关键原因。“But he must move quickly to announce and implement reforms in his first year, while he still has momentum.”由于期待维多多会改变印尼前景,今年印尼金融市场已经回暖,雅加达券交易所指数上涨0%,卢比兑美元汇率上涨%。Mr Widodo’s humble image, record of local government reform and corruption-free reputation has made him Indonesia’s most popular politician, despite a bitter campaign by Mr Subianto’s team to discredit him.不过,分析人士警告说,由于在高层的政治经验太少,今年10月份维多多上任后将很难满足人们的过高期望。来 /201407/314824

  As Mid-Autumn Festival approaches-this year celebrated on Sept 27-bookings for moon-viewing flights have soared, according to a travel service provider.根据旅行务供应商最近表示:随着中秋节临近,为庆祝中秋节而安排的9-27赏月航班预定人数正在暴涨Moon-viewing flights are flights that depart between 6 pm and 12 pm from Sept 26 to 28. During the journey, tourists can enjoy the moonlight. This year is expected to be special, as during the three-day festival both a supermoon and a lunar eclipse will be visible in China.赏月航班初步设定是从96日到28日,每天8时到24时之间起在飞行过程中,游客可以欣赏到中秋月光.今年的行程预计会更加特别,在三天的节日中,中国会同时出现月食和超级月亮的罕见现象A supermoon occurs when the moon comes closest to earth. The diameter will appear 14 percent larger than normal. According to NASA, the ed States space agency, a supermoon is very rare. Last time a supermoon and lunar eclipse occurred near one another was more than 30 years ago. The next convergence will be in 2033.超级月亮是指月亮距离地球近距离的状此时月亮直径将会比正常的4据美国国家航空航天局称,超级月亮是很罕见上次的超级月亮和月食相继出现是在30年前.而下次汇聚将会是033年。Ctrip, a major Chinese travel agency, said this fact has made moon-viewing flights more popular than usual. ;More tourists have chosen the night flight during the festival,; said Yan Xin, Ctrips publicity manager.中国最大的旅行中介--携程旅行,称这个罕见现象会让赏月航班变得比平时更受欢携程宣传部经理闫鑫称:“更多的游客在中秋节期间选择了赏月航班;The number of people who used the check-in service in advance doubled from last year. About 60 percent of them chose window seats.; Yan added that window seats have sold out for flights in high demand.闫鑫还补充说明,靠窗户的飞机座位需求量很大,“航班预先选座率增加了1倍,其中0%的乘客选择了靠窗的座位”Chang Yi, head of the publicity department at Spring Airlines, said the company introduced moon-viewing flights in 2013.春秋航空宣传部的常义称,公司013年首次提出了赏月航班这一概念;We are now collecting the moon-viewing information. On Monday or Tuesday, we will have a full list for our clients to choose from.;“我们现在正在收集赏月航班的信息.在周一或者周二我们将会给我们的客户发放一个全面的表单,供他们选择”;Generally speaking, flights going east-to-west have a better view of the full moon. For an example, flights from Shanghai to Chongqing, Shanghai to Chengdu or Shanghai to Bangkok, Thailand.;“总体来说,从东部飞往西部的航班会观赏到比较好的满月景例如,从上海到重庆,上海到成都或者上海到泰国曼谷”来 /201509/399715

  When it comes to managing Germany’s refugee surge, Chancellor Angela Merkel has pledged to learn from past immigration waves.对于如何处理涌入德国的难民激增的问题,德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)承诺要从过去的移民潮中吸取教训。She would do well to talk to 23-year-old Elvedin Goljica. The Kosovo-born student might seem a poster boy for integration. After arriving as an infant with his parents from war-torn Yugoslavia in 1992, he did well at school, attends a top university and has a prestigious foreign ministry internship.她大可以跟Elvedin Goljica谈一谈。这名出生在科索沃、现3岁的学生看起来也许是移民融入当地社会的典范992年尚在襁褓的他随父母从饱受战争蹂躏的南斯拉夫来到德国,他学业出色并进入顶尖大学就读,目前拥有一份光鲜的外交部实习工作。But Mr Goljica argues that he suffers from the gap that still divides ethnic Germans from immigrants and their German-born children. For him it is mostly to do with xenophobic jokes, pointed questions about his name, and occasional encounters with rude officials.但是,Goljica认为,本土德国人与移民及生于德国的移民子女之间仍然存在差距,这让他感到痛苦,主要的问题是那些仇外的玩笑、针对他的名字提出的尖锐问题以及偶尔遇到的粗鲁官员。“If I say my name, people assume I am a foreigner. People ask me about Kosovo as if it were my home, but I have never lived there since I was a baby,he says.“如果我说出自己的名字,人们会认为我是外国人。人们会问我关于科索沃的事,就好像那是我故乡似的,但是我很小的时候就离开那里了,”他称。He is so concerned that he has joined an online campaign called “I too am Germanyin which immigrant-origin young people have posted pictures to emphasise Germany’s multicultural reality. Others on the site talk about everything from racist insults to ticket inspectors picking on dark-skinned passengers.为此他加入了网上一个名为“我也是德国人I too am Germany)的活动。在该活动中,移民出身的年轻人贴出了许多展现德国多元文化的照片。还有些网民讨论从种族攻击到检票员专门挑深肤色的乘客等种种现象。Faced with the burden of taking in an estimated 1m migrants this year, the German government might be forgiven for paying less attention to the complaints of people aly established. But Ms Merkel says those granted asylum must feel at home. She told the Bundestag this month: “We must learn from the experiences [of the past] . . . and, from the outset, put the highest priority on integration.”鉴于德国今年预计将接收100万移民,德国政府较少关注现有移民的抱怨或许是可谅解的。但是,默克尔称,那些得到庇护的难民理应感觉像在家一样。她9月向德国联邦议院(Bundestag)称:“我们必须从(过去的)经历中吸取教训……而且从一开始就高度重视融入问题。”Mr Goljica’s story is relevant because he was part of the last big wave of asylum-seekers to shelter in Germany 350,000 refugees from the Yugoslav wars of the early 1990s. Confronted with the arrival of other eastern European migrants and the turmoil of German reunification, the government took a hard line over the Balkan refugees under rightwing political pressure.之所以要提Goljica的故事,是因为他是上一波涌入德国寻求避难的大规模难民潮——上世纪90年代初逃离南斯拉夫战争涌入德国5万难民——的其中一员。在同时还要面对其他东欧移民涌入以及两德统一引发动荡的背景下,德国政府当时在右翼政治压力的影响下对来自巴尔干半岛的难民采取了强硬政策。Most had to return to Bosnia after the 1995 Dayton peace accord, with only about 40,000 remaining after 2000, says UNHCR, the UN refugee agency. Those who stayed struggled to be granted permanent residence, including the Goljica family. “For 10 years my father fought with officials,said Mr Goljica.联合国难民署(UNHCR)表示995年《代顿和平协定Dayton Peace Accords)签署后,多数人不得不返回了波斯尼亚,仅有4万人000年后仍然留在德国。那些留下来的难民很难获得永久居民身份,其中就包括Goljica一家。“我爸爸和官员争0年,”Goljica称。Bernd Mesovic, of Pro Asyl, a lobby group, says: “It was idiotic to push people out. Many of the best-qualified went to the US.”游说团体“持避难组织Pro Asyl)的贝恩德蔠索维奇(Bernd Mesovic)称:“把人们赶出去的做法是愚蠢的。很多最有资格的人都去了美国。”The ex-Balkan refugees are among Germany’s best-integrated immigrants, with many benefiting from ties with relatives who had arrived in earlier decades, and community organisations. Former refugees include prizewinning writer Sasa Stanisic and football international Neven Subotic. Edmin Atlagic, president of IGBD, a leading Bosnian community group, says: “We have adapted well to Germany because we came from a secular pluralist society.”前巴尔干半岛难民是德国最融入当地社会的移民群体之一,其中很多人都受益于比他们早几十年到达德国的亲戚以及社区机构的帮助。前难民中包括获奖作家萨沙斯塔尼希奇(Sasa Stanisic)以及国际足球明星内文苏蒂奇(Neven Subotic)。主要的波斯尼亚社区团体IGBD的主席埃德明阿特拉吉Edmin Atlagic)称:“我们已经很好地适应了德国,因为我们来自一个世俗的多元化的社会。”Today’s Middle Eastern refugees are escaping civil war, like their Balkan predecessors, but they are arriving in a country that is much more welcoming than 25 years ago. The German economy, burdened in the 1990s by reunification costs, is powering ahead and companies are crying out for skilled workers. As Ms Merkel says, the country has money for supporting refugees.就像过去来自巴尔干半岛的难民一样,如今的中东难民正在逃离内战,但是他们所抵达的国家比25年前更欢迎移民。上世纪90年代受到统一代价拖累的德国经济如今一马当先,企业迫切需要熟练工人。正如默克尔所言,德国现在有钱持难民。Also, successive governments have rejected past anti-immigration policies, when immigrants were seen as temporary visitors, and have backed integration. Since 2000 Berlin has passed laws to fight discrimination, support immigrants (via language lessons), ease rules for migrantsGerman-born children to claim citizenship, and relax restrictions on asylum-seekers working.此外,德国多届政府都反对过去的反移民政策(当时移民被视为临时访客),而持融合。自2000年开始,柏林通过了一系列法律来消除歧视、(通过语言课)帮助移民、放宽在德国出生的移民子女申请公民身份的相关规定、以及放宽对寻求庇护者参加工作的限制。Germany today has Europe’s largest immigrant population; over 10m out of a total of 81m. Immigrantsearnings lag behind the native population’s by about 20 per cent, only a little more than in the UK and France. Further, an easy-access social security system means that Germany has only 28 per cent of foreign-born people in poverty, fewer than in Britain and France, according to the EU.如今德国拥有欧洲数量最庞大的移民人口;100万人口中有超00万是移民。移民的收入比德国本土人口低20%左右,这个比例仅略大于英国和法国。而且,据欧盟数据显示,容易参与的社会保障体系意味着德国仅有28%的外来移民处于贫困之中,低于英国和法国的比例。But immigrant-origin Germans still lag behind natives in living standards, housing quality and education. According to the OECD’s Pisa education tests, immigrant-origin youngsters scored an average of 54 points below their non-immigrant classmates in mathematics in a 2012 study a smaller gap than the 81-point difference of a decade earlier but bigger than the 34 OECD average.但是,在生活水平、住房条件以及教育方面,移民出身的德国人仍然落后于本土德国人。根据经合组OECD)国际学生评估项目(Pisa)测试结果,在2012年的一项研究中,移民出身的青少年在数学上的平均得分比非移民的同学低54分,0年前81分的差距有所减小,但是仍大于经合组织的平均差距(移民比非移民平均4分)。Refugee activists call for further action, including more provision of German lessons and affordable housing. But the ex-Balkan immigrants are disappointed that Syrian asylum-seekers are receiving residence rights of only three years. Conservative Germans say even this is too generous since refugees should be y to leave when their home countries stabilise. But Mr Atlagic says: “People need to have the perspective of permanent residence from the outset. Only then will they will fully commit to integration in Germany.”为难民奔走的活动人士呼吁政府采取进一步措施,包括提供更多德语课程以及可负担住房。但是前巴尔干半岛移民对来自叙利亚的寻求庇护者将仅获年居住权感到失望。德国人中的保守派甚至称,这太过宽宏大量了,难民应该随时准备好在其祖国局势稳定后离开德国。但是阿特拉吉奇称:“人们应该从一开始就抱有永久居留的想法。只有这样他们才会在德国尽力去融入社会。”来 /201510/402451

  Refined energy product producers in China can breathe a little easier. Late on Tuesday, China’s National Development and Reform Commission said it would postpone a price cut to retail petrol and diesel prices.中国成品油生产商可以松口气了。周二晚间,中国国家发改NDRC)宣布将推迟降低零售汽油和柴油的价格。Shares in refiner Sinopec rallied on Wednesday by as much as a 10th; PetroChina rose 6 per cent.炼油企业中石Sinopec)的股票周三大0%;中石油(PetroChina)上涨%。With the oil price at seven-year lows, the market was expecting prices to come down, crimping margins and profits hit by weak growth. But air in China’s cities is increasingly filthy; incentivising energy users to consume more fuel with cheaper prices would be out of alignment with social pressures.随着原油价格降至七年低点,市场此前预期成品油价格将下调,令原本就遭受疲弱增长打击的利润率和利润受到挤压。但在中国的城市空气越来越糟的背景下,以低价鼓励用户消耗更多能源是与社会压力背道而驰的。The reprieve may be only temporary. China’s NDRC has made clear its intention to liberalise prices, a process it began in 2013 by reducing the time between justments. Over the past year, it has allowed independent companies to import crude oil and export refined fuel. Tuesday’s decision not to lower prices is a temporary move.降价缓行也许只是暂时的。中国发改委已明确表示有意放开价格013年开始缩短调价之间的时间间隔,以启动这一进程。过去一年里,发改委允许独立企业进口原油和出口成品燃料。周二宣布的不降价决定是暂时的。Share price rebounds are likely to be similar.股价的反弹可能同样是暂时的。来 /201512/417442。

  U.S. President Barack Obama played golf Wednesday with a new and distinguished playing partner - Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak.美国总统奥巴马星期三与一位名人成为高尔夫新球友,他就是马来西亚总理拉扎克。Both Mr. Obama and Mr. Najib are vacationing in the U.S. Pacific state of Hawaii, the U.S. presidents birthplace.奥巴马和拉扎克都在地处太平洋的夏威夷度假。夏威夷是奥巴马的出生地。The two leaders played a round of Christmas Eve golf at the Marine Corps base in Kaneohe Bay along with two of Mr. Obamas aides.圣诞前夕,在卡内奥赫湾美国海军陆战队基地,奥巴马、拉扎克以及奥巴马的两名助手打了一轮高尔夫。The White House released a statement saying the duo ;took the opportunity to discuss the growing and warming relationship between the ed States and Malaysia,; and that the president looked forward to working with Mr. Najib next year, when Malaysia takes over the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.白宫发表声明说,奥巴马和拉扎克利用这次机会讨论了美国和马来西亚之间不断发展的友好关系,并表示奥巴马期待明年与拉扎克总理合作,届时马来西亚将接任东盟轮值主席。President Obama visited Malaysia earlier this year, the first sitting U.S. president to visit the country in nearly 50 years.奥巴马今年初曾访问马来西亚。这是近50年来首位美国在任总统访问这个国家。来 /201412/350620

  Japan risks forgetting the lessons of its militarist past if prime minister Shinzo Abe tampers with history, according to the man who made the country’s definitive apology for the second world war.曾明确为日本二战行为道歉的日本前首相村山富市(Tomiichi Murayama)表示,如果日本首相安倍晋Shinzo Abe)篡改历史,日本可能会忘记其军国主义历史的教训。In an interview with the Financial Times, former prime minister Tomiichi Murayama who made a landmark declaration in 1995 on the 50th anniversary of the war’s end attacked Mr Abe’s decision to make a new statement on the 70th anniversary this year.在接受英囀?金融时报》采访时,村山富市抨击了安倍晋三将在今年就二战结束70周年发表新表态的决定995年,村山富市曾在二战结束50周年之际,发表过里程碑式的讲话。Mr Murayama’s intervention, which comes as Mr Abe prepares for speeches in Indonesia and the US where he is likely to road-test his message on history, shows how the legacy of the war remains fiercely disputed in Japan.村山富市介入此事之际,安倍晋三正准备在印尼和美国发表讲话。他可能会通过这些讲话,试探他对历史的言论会产生什么影响。村山的介入表明,二战遗留问题在日本依然存在激烈争论。The August proclamation by Mr Abe will be one of the most important moments in Asian diplomacy this year, with China and Korea watching for any sign of revisionism by a prime minister they regard as an unrepentant nationalist.安倍在8月份的讲话,将是今年亚洲外交最重要的时刻之一,因为中韩两国都在密切关注这一讲话,是否会有篡改历史的迹象。在他们眼中,安倍晋三是一位不知悔改的民族主义者。Mr Murayama said the objective of his 1995 statement which describes Japan’s “deep remorsefor its “colonial rule and aggressionwas less an apology than the correct remembrance of history. He urged Mr Abe to retain those words.村山富市表示995年村山谈话的目的与其说是为了道歉,不如说是为了恰当地记住历史。在该声明中,村山富市描述了日本对“殖民统治和侵略”的“深刻反省”(deep remorse)。他敦促安倍也保留这类措辞。“The goal is not to apologise. The important thing is our recognition of what we did in the past, and whether it was good or bad,said Mr Murayama. “This isn’t a problem where you apologise to the Korean people or the Chinese people and it’s done.”村山富市表示:“目的并不是道歉。重要的问题在于,我们要认识到过去做过什么,所做的是好事还是坏事。并不是说,向韩国人民和中国人民道歉后就完事了。”His remarks highlight the dispute between Japan’s nationalists, who want to rehabilitate a war in which millions of Japanese died and recast it as a noble but failed effort in the national interest; and those such as Mr Murayama, who regard it as a futile and tragic mistake.村山富市的表态凸显出日本民族主义者与村山等人之间存在的争论。日本的民族主义者希望为一场导致数百万日本人丧生的战争正名,将其正名为一次符合日本国家利益却未能取得成功的高贵努力。而村山等人则将它视为毫无意义的悲剧性错误。“It wasn’t just the people of China and Korea who suffered great harm from our colonial rule and aggression, it was the people of Japan who suffered as well,he says.他说:“受到我们殖民统治和侵略巨大伤害的,不仅包括中韩两国的人民,日本人民也同样深受其害。”“Their homes were bombed, and the bombing killed many people, and Hiroshima and Nagasaki became the first to suffer an atomic bomb. Therefore, if we look again at that war, it was a completely reckless war. We must not repeat it, must not repeat that error.”“他们的家园遭到了轰炸,许多人为此丧生,广岛和长崎成为原子弹的首批受害者。因此,如果我们回顾这场战争,就会发现这是一场丝毫未顾忌后果的战争。我们一定不能重现这场战争,一定不能再犯这种错误。”When he came to power in 2013, Mr Abe declined to accept the Murayama declaration in full, and quibbled about the definition of “aggression He has since backed off that position and said his government upheld previous declarations, such as that of Mr Murayama, “in their entirety2013年担任首相时,安倍拒绝全盘接受村山声明,并曾围绕“侵略”一词的定义开展诡辩。自那以来,安倍这一立场已有所软化,曾表示其政府赞成村山等人此前声明的“全部内容”。However, that reveals little about what Mr Abe himself will say. In a recent FT interview, Mr Abe said he wanted a statement reflecting on Japan’s past 70 years as a liberal democracy, and preparing for the 0th anniversary and 90th anniversary and 100th anniversary不过,对于安倍自己会说些什么,这一表态透露不了什么信息。在最近接受英囀?金融时报》采访时,安倍曾表示他希望他所发表的声明,能回顾日本作为自由民主国家的70年历程,并为0年纪念日0年纪念日00年纪念日”做好准备。The prime minister has set up a panel to advise him on the 70th anniversary, and people involved in the discussions said he has yet to decide exactly what to say. With no declaration likely to satisfy China and Korea, they said that Mr Abe’s most important audience was in the US.安倍成立了一个小组,为他就二战结0周年提供咨询意见。参与相关磋商的人士表示,安倍尚未明确决定说些什么。他们表示,由于任何声明都不会让中国和韩国满意,安倍讲话的最重要听众其实是美囀?Hints at his approach may emerge later this month at the Bandung conference in Indonesia, an anti-colonial gathering of Asian and African leaders, and then when he addresses a joint session of Congress in Washington on April 29.至于安倍讲话的风向,在本月晚些时候或许会初现端倪。届时亚洲和非洲领导人将聚集在印尼万隆,召开反殖民主义的万隆会议。接着,安倍还会于49日,在华盛顿向美国国会两院联席会议发表演讲。For Mr Murayama, the answer is to stick with the wording used by his government. Although a socialist, he led a grand coalition of left and right that included Mr Abe’s Liberal Democratic party, and the declaration was his great achievement in office.对于村山富市来说,就是要在讲话中坚持使用村山政府的措辞。虽然村山是一名社会党人,但是他曾领导过左翼和右翼组成的大联合政府,这一联盟中还包括了安倍所在的自民LDP),而村山谈话则是他首相任内的一大成就。“If we water down, muddy or fail to touch on the problems of ‘aggressionand ‘colonial rulein the Murayama declaration, then Korea and China will once again distrust and worry about Japan,he said.村山表示:“对于村山谈话中的‘侵略’和‘殖民统治’问题,如果采取掺水或污名化的办法,或不去触及这个问题,韩国和中国会再次对日本产生不信任感,并为此担心日本的走向。”来 /201504/369448

  

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