2019年07月17日 22:33:21|来源:国际在线|编辑:百姓优惠
Vladimir Putin’s regime describes itself by its grudges. 弗拉基米普京(Vladimir Putin)政权在描述自我时带着满腔怨恨。The Russian president harbours a lengthy list of grievances and imagined slights, reaching from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the expansion of the EU and Nato, to US military interventions in the Middle East. 这位俄罗斯总统怀揣着一份冗长的清单,记录着他的不满和想象中受到的怠慢——从苏联(Soviet Union)解体到欧EU)和北Nato)的扩张、再到美国对中东的军事干预。The most personally wounding, though, comprised a few words uttered a couple of years ago by US President Barack Obama.不过,最带有个人色的伤害是几年前美国总统巴拉奥巴Barack Obama)说过的一些话。Mr Putin craves respect. 普京渴望得到尊重。Russia, Mr Obama said, was no more than a regional power whose revanchist military intervention in Ukraine was evidence of weakness rather than a demonstration of prowess. 奥巴马说,俄罗斯不过是一个地区强国,它在乌克兰复仇式的军事干预是软弱、而非强大的表现。Russian actions were a problem, but not the biggest threat to America’s national security. 俄罗斯的举动带来麻烦,但并不是美国国家安全面临的最大威胁。You could hear the screams of anguish in the Kremlin.你能听到克里姆林宫撕心裂肺的怒吼。The assessment was at once right and wrong. 该评价既对也不对。By almost every metric economic, demographic, social or technological Russia faces inexorable decline. 几乎在所有方面——经济、人口、社会或科技——俄罗斯都面临着无可挽回的衰萀?The US president, though, underestimated Moscow’s willingness to use its still formidable military. 不过,奥巴马低估了俄罗斯使用其仍然令人生畏的军事力量的意愿。Mr Putin is a leader y to take risks at a time when the west prizes caution above all else. 当西方对谨慎的重视高于其他一切时,普京是那种随时准备冒险的领导人。Mr Obama missed, too, the link between adventurism and hurt national pride. 奥巴马还忽视了冒险主义和受伤害的民族自豪感之间的关联。If Mr Putin wants anything on the global stage, it is to be treated as the leader of a power that can sit down as an equal with the US and China.如果说普京想要在国际舞台上获得某种东西的话,那便是被当作能与美国和中国平起平坐的强国的领导人对待。Barring a political earthquake and a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump, November’s US election will not change the essential parameters of the relationship between Russia and the west. 除非发生一场政治地震、共和党总统候选人唐纳特朗Donald Trump)获胜1月的美国大选不会改变俄罗斯和西方关系的基本参数。The reset offered by Mr Obama at the beginning of his presidency has been lost to the annexation of Crimea, the occupation of eastern Ukraine and the raining down of Russian bombs on the Syrian city of Aleppo.奥巴马在上任初期提出的重启美俄关系的策略,败给了俄罗斯的一系列举动——吞并克里米亚、侵占乌克兰东部地区以及对叙利亚阿勒颇市(Aleppo)狂轰滥炸。True, the Russian president still has admirers in the west. 不错,西方仍然有普京的崇拜者。They extend beyond Mr Trump. 不光是特朗普。Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Britain’s Labour party, has spent a political lifetime marching against wars fought by the west. 英国工党领袖杰里科尔Jeremy Corbyn)在整个政治生涯里都在反对西方进行的战争。He cannot bring himself to condemn the Russian slaughter of civilians in Aleppo. 他做不到指责俄罗斯对阿勒颇平民的屠杀。He is in the company of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front, and pro-Moscow fascist parties in Hungary and Greece. 和他一样的还有法国国民阵线(National Front)领导人马勒庞(Marine Le Pen),以及匈牙利和希腊亲俄罗斯的法西斯主义政党。Far left thus meets far right.极左翼和极右翼在这点上不谋而合。It is evident to just about everyone else, however, that the interventions in Ukraine and Syria are expressions of a broader Kremlin strategy. 然而,几乎其他所有人都清楚,俄罗斯在乌克兰和叙利亚的军事干预是克里姆林宫一项更广泛战略的表现。Regime survival and hostility towards the west are two sides of the same coin. 维系政权和敌视西方是同一枚硬币的两面。Support for populist parties of left and right in Europe, the subversion of democracy in formerly communist states and the cyber attacks on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign are all of the same piece. 持欧洲或左或右的民粹主义政党、颠覆前共产主义国家的民主制度、以及对希拉克林Hillary Clinton)总统竞选团队发动网络攻击,本质都一样。Mr Putin’s target is the liberal international order. 普京的目标是自由国际秩序。He wants a great power carve-up that restores Russian suzerainty over its near-abroad and flatters its relevance in global affairs.他希望由大国来瓜分世界,恢复俄罗斯对周边邻国的宗主地位,并凸显俄罗斯在国际事务中的重要性。There is no off-the-peg response available to the west. 对于西方来说,目前没有现成的应对办法。Useful lessons can be drawn from the cold war particularly about the importance of things such as predictable and calibrated responses 西方国家可以从冷战中吸取有益教训——特别是有关可预测的标准化回应策略的重要性。and diplomats and strategists need to relearn some of the old rules for managing great power relations. 同时,外交官和策略家需要重新学习一些有关管理大国关系的老规矩。But, pace Mr Putin, Russia is not the Soviet Union. 但是,尊敬的普京先生,俄罗斯不是苏联。What the US and its allies can usefully do is establish principles to frame a reset grounded in realism. 美国及其盟友可以采取的有效办法是,确立一些原则,拟定一项务实的重启战略。They should start with resolve, consistency, engagement and respect.首先要从四点做起:决心、一致性、接触和尊重。Resolve is the most important. 决心是最重要的一点。Mr Putin is an opportunist rather than a grand strategist, a leader looking to probe and test the weaknesses of adversaries. 普京是机会主义者,而不是大战略家,他伺机试探着敌人的弱点。The west’s mistake has been to worry that deterrence could be seen as provocation. 西方的失误是担心威慑会被视为挑衅。By failing to show resolve, it has heightened rather than defused tensions. 由于没能表现出决心,它激化、而非缓和了紧张关系。The forward deployment of Nato forces in eastern Europe has gone some way to provide public reassurance. 北约部队在东欧的前沿部署,在某种程度上使公众安心。But Washington should be sending unequivocal messages about lines in Syria and Europe that cannot be crossed without consequences.但是华盛顿方面应该发出明确的信息,明确其在叙利亚和欧洲的底线——俄罗斯一旦跨过这条线就要承担后果。The second ingredient is consistency. 第二点是一致性。Mr Putin is adept at exploiting division and hesitation. 普京擅长利用分歧和犹豫。European states, in particular, need to show that they can put differences to one side in treating with Moscow. 欧洲各国尤其需要表现出他们在对待莫斯科方面可以放下分歧。Instead of rolling over economic sanctions every few months each occasion providing an opportunity for Russia to sow dissent the EU should change the dynamic by declaring them open-ended. 与目前每隔几个月便重启一轮经济制裁——每一次都给俄罗斯提供挑拨离间的机会——的做法相反,欧盟应该宣布无限期制裁来改变这一现状。They will be lifted only when the Kremlin changes its behaviour. 只有当克里姆林宫改变做法时,制裁才能解除。Consistency also demands a series of graduated responses to hostile acts. 一致性也要求西方在面对敌对行动时采取一系列递进的应对办法。Moscow should know that cyber attacks and subversion will elicit a response, whether travel restrictions on those closely associated with the regime or tighter economic sanctions.莫斯科方面应该明白,网络攻击和颠覆行为将招致西方回应,无论是针对那些与政府有密切关系的人士的旅行限制还是不断加强的经济制裁。Engagement is a word often used by those whose real agenda is submission. 那些真心想屈的人士,经常把接触这个词挂在嘴上。Mr Corbyn comes to mind. 这让人一下子就想到了科尔宾。But tough-minded management of the relationship should not preclude recognition of mutual interests. 但是,以坚定的态度管理双方关系,不应妨碍对共同利益的承认。Where the two sides can co-operate usefully say, in countering terrorism or nuclear proliferation the west should take the initiative in promoting joint action.在双方可以有效合作的领域——比方说在打击恐怖主义或阻止核扩散方面——西方在推进共同行动方面应该抓住主动权。Finally, there is that word respect. 最后,还要尊重对方。To say that Russia is weak in most of the dimensions of power is to state the obvious. 没错,在判断实力的大多数标准上,俄罗斯都很薄弱。That does not mean it is wise for a US president publicly to confront a thin-skinned Russian president with the uncomfortable reality. 这并不意味着美国总统以令人不悦的事实公开叫板脸皮薄的俄罗斯总统是明智的行为。Dissembling has a place in diplomacy. 看破而不说破是可取的外交策略。The sadness is that, if Mr Putin continues to pretend Russia is a great power, it will eventually cease to be a great nation.可悲的是,如果普京继续假装俄罗斯是世界强国,那么它是怎么也不会成为强国的。来 /201611/475319Now everyone will love her again. 现在所有人都会再次喜欢她。Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, in his postmortem on the election, wrote that although as a candidate Hillary Clinton was never able to show that she was something more than the hyper-prepared, supersmart, best student in the class, she managed to show more of herself in her concession speech Wednesday morning, the latest example of politicians doing their best when they’ve lost something they wanted so badly.《华盛顿邮报Washington Post)的克里斯.席利Chris Cillizza)在美国大选后的剖析中写道,尽管作为候选人,希拉里.克林Hillary Clinton)从未能够展示她不只是班级里做足功课的、超级聪明的最优秀学生,但她成功在周三早上的败选演讲中更多地吐露了心声,这是政客们在失去自己渴望的东西时华丽转身的最新例子。Nonsense. 这完全是胡说。Mrs Clinton made the same case for a united America, an inclusive, big-hearted America in her concession speech that she made in the last debate and in plenty of campaign speeches. 无论是在败选演讲中,还是在最后一场辩论以及许多竞选演讲中,希拉里都在主张建设一个团结的美国,一个包容的、心胸宽广的美国。The change was in the listener, not the speaker. 改变的是听众,而非演讲者。Once she was properly humbled, her grace, grit and authenticity could be recognised. 一旦她好好尝到了逆境的滋味,她的风度、坚韧和真诚就可以得到认可。For millions of American women, and plenty of men, she was always striving for something beyond herself, a stronger, more united, equal and caring America. 对数以百万计的美国女性和众多男性而言,她始终在为事业而忘我地奋斗,为的是打造一个更强大、更为团结、平等和关怀的美囀?She made this point at the 2008 Democratic Convention, when she talked about the people who had motivated her to run. 她在2008年民主党全国代表大会上阐明了这一点,当时她谈到了激励自己竞选的人们。She said to her supporters: I want you to ask yourselves: Were you in this campaign just for me?#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;Or were you in it for all the people in this country who feel invisible?她向持者表示:我希望你们扪心自问一下:你们投入这场竞选中只是为了我?……还是为了这个国家所有觉得自己毫无发言权的人们?The context is all. 背景是一切。As long as Mrs Clinton was seeking to be president, she was, to so many, a striving, ambitious, cold and calculating woman. 只要希拉里在寻求竞选总统,她在许多人眼里就是一个不择手段、野心勃勃、冷酷而且精于计算的女性。That stereotype is all too familiar to women who want to hold the same positions that men do.对那些希望占据由男性把持的职位的女性来说,这种成见过于熟悉。But once she held a job, whether senator or secretary of state, she was widely admired by many of the same people who had disliked her as a candidate. 但是一旦她投入工作,无论是参议员还是国务卿,当初不喜欢她作为候选人的许多人都对她倍感钦佩。Both Democrats and Republicans would tell me that they had opposed her in the 2008 campaign but were so impressed with the job she was doing.无论是民主党人还是共和党人都会告诉我,他们在2008年大选中反对希拉里,但对她的工作表现留下极为深刻的印象。Beyond sexism, however, Mrs Clinton lost this election above all because of a sweeping and intense desire for change the same hunger that elected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.然而,除了性别歧视以外,希拉里之所以败选,最大原因是人们普遍渴望改变——正是这种渴望让巴拉奥巴Barack Obama)008年和2012年赢得大选。Nate Silver predicted before the election that if Donald Trump won, it would be because of white American men without a college degree who had voted for Mr Obama over John McCain or Mitt Romney but would now vote Trump. 纳特.西尔Nate Silver)在大选前预计,如果唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)赢得大选,那将是因为那些没上过大学、曾经持奥巴马而非约翰.麦凯John McCain)或者米罗姆Mitt Romney)的白人男性选民现在持了特朗普。And so it proved. 结果就是如此。More than 80 per cent of voters, who prioritised can bring needed change, chose Mr Trump, even when they thought he did not have the temperament to be president.看重候选人能够带来必要改变的选民中,80%以上选择了特朗普,即使他们认为特朗普的性情不适合当总统。The question, for Republicans and Democrats alike, is how to accomplish that change. 无论是对共和党还是对民主党人士来说,问题在于如何实现那种改变。How to rebuild a crumbling country and redress the decades-long slide in the standard of living and quality of life for middle-class Americans?如何重建一个摇摇欲坠的国家,纠正美国中产阶级持续数十年的生活水平和生活质量滑坡?How to create an economy that provides opportunity for white men in post-industrial America as well as for African Americans, Latinos and other minorities?如何让后工业时代的美国经济为白人男子以及非裔、西语裔以及其他少数族裔美国人提供机会?A few weeks ago, at the annual dinner for the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank, its president Arthur Brooks spoke of the need to return to core values as the starting point for finding opportunity in the crisis gripping America. 几个星期前,在保守派智库美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的年度晚宴上,所长阿布鲁克斯(Arthur Brooks)谈到有必要重拾核心价值观,作为在危机肆虐的美国寻觅机遇的出发点。Core values include the equality of human dignity, and the right of each person to realise his or her potential.核心价值观包括人的尊严平等,以及每个人都有实现自己潜能的权利。He was repeating, perhaps unwittingly, one of Mrs Clinton’s mantras: the desire for a nation and a world where everyone can live up to his or her God-given potential. 他(或许是无意地)在重复希拉里的信条之一:渴望建立一个每个人都能实现自己天赋的国家乃至世界。Mr Trump took up this refrain in his victory speech, adding one of his signature phrases: It’s going to be a beautiful thing. 特朗普在胜选演讲中借鉴了这一格言,加上他自己的口头禅之一:这将是非常美妙的事情。Every single American will have the opportunity to realise his or her fullest potential.每一个美国人都将有机会实现他或者她的全部潜胀?Equal opportunity is a staple of the American political diet. 机会平等是美国政治食谱的主菜。But focusing on individual potential could point to a populism without demagoguery, a people-centred politics that measures success in terms of the numbers who have access to good jobs, schools and life opportunities rather than of the size of government, the level of taxes or the amount of regulation.但是聚焦于个人潜能有望带来一种没有煽动的民粹主义,一种以人为本的政治,其衡量成功的标准是获得好工作、学校和人生机遇的数量,而非政府规模、税收水平或者法规数量。The American political system is #172;broken. 美国政治制度目前运转不灵。It does not deliver the results that a majority of Americans want, in poll after poll, on issues from gun safety to wages to fiscal responsibility. 从安全、薪资,到财政责任,一次又一次投票的结果显示,它没有带来绝大多数美国人希望的结果。The only way forward is to harness the desire for change to political reforms that will allow voters to vote for what they want and politicians to be able to deliver it.唯一的前进之路是利用改变的愿望来推行政治改革,让选民能够投票选出他们想要的结果,也让政客们能够兑现改革承诺。Mr Trump said he would take on that system;特朗普表示,他将挑战这个制度the Republican establishment that hopes to tame him has a different idea. 希望驯他的共和党建制派有不同的想法。But if he fails, another candidate for change will run the table in 2020.但是如果他失败了,另一个举着改变大旗的候选人将在2020年异军突起。来 /201612/483594

Malaysia has recalled its ambassador to Pyongyang as a diplomatic row over the apparent assassination of the North Korean leader’s brother escalated on Monday.马来西亚已召回该国驻朝鲜大使。围绕朝鲜领导人的同父异母长兄显然被暗杀的外交争吵周一升级。The killing of Kim Jong Nam at Kuala Lumpur airport has soured relations between the two countries, with North Korea accusing Malaysia of colluding with “hostile forces金正Kim Jong Nam)在吉隆坡机场遇袭身亡事件,损害了两国关系,朝鲜指责马来西亚勾结“敌对势力”。Malaysian authorities have infuriated Pyongyang by insisting on an independent investigation into the death, and refusing North Korean officials access to the body during the autopsy.马来西亚有关部门坚持对这一死亡事件进行独立调查,并在尸检期间拒绝让朝鲜官员在场,这些决定激怒了平壤方面。Police in Kuala Lumpur have detained a North Korean national, and released the names and images of four other North Korean men who are wanted in connection with Kim’s death.吉隆坡警方已拘留了一名朝鲜籍人士,并发布了另外四名被通缉的朝鲜男子的姓名和图像,称他们在金正男死亡案件中有重大嫌疑。Kim, who was waiting to board a flight to Macau, complained of dizziness after two women wiped liquid on his face, police said. He collapsed and died on the way to hospital.警方称,正在等候登上飞往航班的金正男,在脸上被两名女子抹上液体后,向工作人员诉说自己头晕。之后他昏迷倒下,在被送往医院途中死亡。Since his death, Mr Kim’s body has been subject to a tussle between the two countries, with Pyongyang attempting to block an autopsy and take possession of the body.在他死亡后,金正男的尸体成了两国间争执不下的一个问题,平壤方面试图阻止尸检,并要回尸体。Malaysian authorities insist that the body must be handed to Kim’s next-of-kin after DNA tests to confirm his identity.马来西亚有关部门则坚称,尸体必须在DNA测试确认身份后交给金正男的家属。Malaysia’s ministry of foreign affairs said on Monday that its top diplomat in Pyongyang is being recalled to Kuala Lumpur “for consultations马来西亚外交部周一表示,该国常驻平壤的最高外交官正被召回吉隆坡进行“磋商”。North Korea’s ambassador to Malaysia, Kang Chol, was summoned to the ministry of foreign affairs on Monday to explain criticisms of the Malaysian government, including a claim that Malaysia had “forced the postmortem without our permission朝鲜驻马来西亚大使姜Kang Chol)周一被马来西亚外交部传召,要求解释其对马来西亚政府提出的批评,包括声称马来西亚“未经我方允许而强行进行尸检”。The ambassador was seen speeding away from the ministry in a black limousine flying a North Korean pennant on Monday morning.周一上午,这位大使被看到乘坐一辆悬挂朝鲜国旗的黑色豪华轿车驶离马来西亚外交部。In a statement on Friday, the ambassador complained that as Kim was a diplomatic passport holder and under the “consular protectionof North Korea, Pyongyang was entitled to block an autopsy.这位大使在上周五发表的一份声明中抱怨称,由于金正男是外交护照持有人,受到朝鲜的“领事保护”,因此平壤方面有权阻止进行尸检。Malaysia’s foreign ministry said that as the death occurred on Malaysian soil “under mysterious circumstances it was the government’s responsibility to conduct an investigation.马来西亚外交部称,由于这起“案情离奇的”死亡事件发生在马来西亚领土上,政府有责任展开调查。North Korea is widely believed to have instigated the assassination of Kim. He was a half-brother of North Korea’s hardline leader Kim Jong Un and had advocated market reforms.朝鲜被广泛认为策划了暗杀金正男的行动。他是朝鲜强硬领导人金正Kim Jong Un)的同父异母长兄,生前主张市场化改革。The Malaysian foreign ministry, rejecting the ambassador’s criticism as “baseless said: “The Malaysian government takes very seriously any unfounded attempt to tarnish its reputation.”马来西亚外交部拒绝接受朝鲜驻该国大使的批评,称其“毫无根据”,表示:“马来西亚政府非常严肃地对待旨在玷污其声誉的任何毫无根据的企图。”Malaysia and North Korea have sought to boost business ties in recent years. North Korea, which grants Malaysians visa-free entry, imports refined oil, natural rubber and palm oil from Malaysia, and exports electrical and electronic products and chemicals to the south-east Asian country.马来西亚和朝鲜近年致力于加强商业往来。向马来西亚国民提供免签待遇的朝鲜,从马来西亚进口成品油、天然橡胶和棕榈油,同时向这个东南亚国家出口电气和电子产品以及化学品。However, official trade between the two countries was worth just 22.7m ringgit (m) in 2015, according to Malaysia’s national trade agency.但是,根据马来西亚国家贸易发展局的数据,2015年双边贸易总值只270万林吉特(合500万美元)。Air Koryo, the North Korean state carrier, launched direct flights between Pyongyang and Kuala Lumpur in 2011, but this service was discontinued in June 2014.朝鲜国家航空公司高丽航空(Air Koryo)曾在2011年开通平壤和吉隆坡之间的直航航班,但这项务014月终止。The Malaysian capital was also a venue for unofficial talks last year between former US officials and North Korean diplomats.马来西亚首都吉隆坡还是去年美国前官员和朝鲜外交官之间非正式会谈的地点。来 /201702/493474

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