郴州做包茎手术365中文

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原标题: 郴州做包茎手术安互动
U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, who arrived in South Korea on Thursday, says Pyongyangs recent missiles tests are a reminder of how dangerous the situation is on the Korean peninsula.美国国防部长卡特说,平壤最近试射导弹提醒人们注意朝鲜半岛非常危险的局势。卡特是星期四抵达韩国的。Speaking at Yokota Air Base in Japan before departing for South Korea, Carter told reporters he was ;flattered; if the North Korean missile launches were meant to be a ;welcome message; for him.在离开日本前往韩国之前,卡特在横田空军基地对记者说,如果朝鲜发射导弹是送给他的“欢迎信号”,他会感到“荣幸”。The short-range missiles were launched this week into the sea off North Koreas west coast. North Korea also fired four missiles in a similar test last Friday.朝鲜本星期向其西部沿海发射了短程导弹。上星期五,朝鲜在一次类似的试射中发射了四枚导弹。It is not unusual for the North to conduct such tests ahead of visits to the region by U.S. officials or during moments of heightened tension with its foe, South Korea.当美国官员访问该地区之前,或平壤与韩国之间的关系趋于紧张之际,朝鲜经常会试射导弹。Seouls defense ministry on Thursday called this weeks test routine and said the projectiles did not represent a serious security threat to South Korea.星期四,韩国国防部将朝鲜本星期试射导弹称为“例行公事”,并表示此举并不构成对韩国安全的严重威胁。South Korean officials have also said the launches appear to be a response to the ongoing Foal Eagle joint military exercise between the U.S. and South Korea.韩国官员还说,朝鲜试射导弹看来是对美韩举行代号为“雏鹰”的联合军演做出的反应。来 /201504/369111The starting point for anyone wanting to understand how the world’s energy markets will develop over the next 20 years must be China. Companies, bankers, investors and those of us who try to follow the industry will have to shift our attention away from local circumstances in Europe or the US. What happens in both continents is interesting, but on the world scale it pales into insignificance. Even a very radical change in the European market a real carbon price or a single common energy policy, or indeed the development of French and German shale gas would be as nothing compared to the transformation that is coming, as China becomes the dominant force in every part of the energy business.要把握世界能源市场今0年的发展趋势,必须以中国为出发点。企业、家、投资者,还有其他任何密切关注能源行业的人士,必须把注意力从欧洲或美国本地的形势转移开。这两个大陆发生的事情确实值得关注,但放在全球层面上就没那么重要了。即便欧洲市场上出现了根本性的变革,比如确定了碳价格或实行了单一能源政策,或者是法国和德国的页?气开发取得了实质性进展,与一个即将到来的重大变化——中国将成为能源产业各领域的主导力量——相比,它们就都不值一提。Consider a few facts and projections. The facts are taken from the BP Statistical Review, while the projections are from the International Energy Agency annual outlook and reflect the general consensus of private sector forecasters我们来看一些事实和预测。这些事实摘自英国石油公BP)的《世界能源统计年鉴BP Statistical Review of World Energy),而预测则来自国际能源机构(IEA)的年度展望报告,它们反映了私营部门预测人员的普遍共识。In the last decade, Chinese oil use has almost doubled. Gas consumption has risen fivefold and electricity production is up by factor of 9. Total energy demand in China is up 60 per cent in a decade and 300 per cent since 1990. China alone now accounts for 22 per cent of global energy every day. And that is just the beginning.上个十年里,中国的石油消耗量几乎翻了一番,天然气消耗量增长倍,发电量则增长9倍。在十年的时间里,中国的能源总需求增长了60%。如果从1990年算起,总需求则增长了三倍。目前中国的能源日消耗量占全球的22%,而这还只是开始。The projections for the next 20 years suggest another surge, with oil demand set to double again, gas use to more than double and total energy consumption to rise by 70 per cent even allowing for an optimistic view of gains in energy efficiency.在针对今0年的预测中,我们将又一次看到中国需求的激增。中国对石油的需求将再次翻番,天然气消耗量将增加不止一倍。即使对能源使用效率的提升持乐观看法,今0年中国能源消耗总量也将增长70%。Of course, 20 year projections are not meant to be taken as precise forecasts. Chinese data is far from perfect and the outlook is based on a number of assumptions about public policy decisions. The detail matters less than the broad direction which the numbers describe. The overall story is that Chinese energy consumption will shape every part of the energy business from oil and gas to nuclear and renewables.当然,时间跨度长0年的预测不可能十分精确。中国的数据还很不完善,而且以上预测是基于对公共决策的一系列假定得出的。但是详细的数据没有这些数据所反映出的总体趋势重要。这个总趋势就是:从石油和天然气,到核能和可再生能源,中国的能源消费将决定全球能源产业各个领域的格局。Even if you believe, as I do, that China will inevitably experience something close to a normal economic cycle with periods of low growth, and even recessions, the direction of change remains a valid projection of the future. Indeed, there is a case for saying that the figures set out above understate the possible growth in demand. As an excellent article by Robert Wilson on the website Energy Collective makes clear, most of China’s current energy demand growth is driven by the needs of industry.即使你和我一样,相信中国将不可避免地经历某种类似正常经济周期的现象,会出现经济增长放缓甚至是衰退的时期,以上变化趋势依然是对未来的有效预测。事实上,有理由认为上述数据低估了中国需求的可能增长。正如罗伯特#8226;威尔Robert Wilson)在Energy Collective网站发表的一篇精文章所阐明的,中国当下能源需求的增长主要是由工业需求带动的。The Chinese economy is clearly still in a phase of production growth, helped on by the self-defeating decisions of the EU to increase its own energy costs and therefore to encourage the migration of economic activity to lower cost areas. Global industrial production is growing but the geographic location of that production is changing. Such migration does nothing to reduce net emissions of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases.中国经济显然仍处于生产增长的阶段。与此同时,欧盟却决定提高自己的能源成本,这一自讨苦吃的决策促使经济活动转移到成本较低的地区,这对中国生产的增长起到了助推。全球工业生产正在增长,但生产活动的地理位置却在发生改变。这种迁移对降低二氧化碳或其他温室气体的净排放量没有任何作用。But the production growth phase may not continue to be the dominant force in driving energy demand in China. That growth could be supplemented over time by increases in personal consumption. As Wilson points out, Chinese per capita use of energy for travel and in the home is still a fraction of the levels in Europe or the US. The shift is beginning, but there is a long way to go.然而,中国处于生产增长阶段这一因素可能不会继续成为推动中国能源需求增长的主导力量。随着时间推移,个人消费的增长可能也将帮助推动中国能源需求增长。正如威尔逊所指出的,相对欧美来说,无论是出外旅游还是在家,中国人均能源消耗量都处于极低水平。这种现象开始发生改变,不过还有很长的路要走。The figures above may also understate China’s share of global energy demand if the European economy remains stagnant and the Middle East remains in chaos.此外,如果欧洲经济保持停滞,中东仍然一片混乱,以上数据还有可能低估中国占全球能源需求的比重。Two issues arise from all this. First, what choices will the Chinese make on the key decisions that will determine how the future global energy markets evolve? Will they shift away from coal in the interests of clean air in the cities a topic of live political debate? Will the Chinese tolerate ever-increasing imports and the potential vulnerabilities that brings? Will they pour money into scientific research on renewables in the hope of maintaining a higher level of energy self-sufficiency? All these are public policy decisions, but given the scale of China’s role they will shape demand, and therefore global prices, for all forms of energy.所有这一切引发了两个问题。首先,在一些将决定未来全球能源市场动向的关键决策上,中国会做出什么样的选择?中国会不会为了让城市拥有干净的空气,放弃使用煤炭(这是一个引发激烈政治争论的话题)?中国能否容忍进口的不断增长,以及由此带来的潜在脆弱性?中国会不会为了维持较高的能源自给率,在可再生能源的科研上投入重资?所有这些都是中国自己的公共决策,然而考虑到中国影响力的大小,这些决策将决定所有形式的能源的需求,从而影响它们的国际定价。The second broad issue is for the corporate sector. China will dominate global energy demand growth for the next two decades. Are the majors (or indeed smaller) energy companies prepared for this, or are they happy to remain in the shrinking markets of the US and Europe where total oil demand on the IEA’s projections is set to continue falling?第二大问题是企业部门的问题。今0年,中国将主导全球能源需求的增长。另一方面,根据国际能源机构的预测,欧美能源市场的石油总需求将持续降低。对这种变化趋势,那些大能源企业(或许事实上应该是那些规模较小的能源企业)是否已做好准备,还是将乐于留在不断萎缩的欧美市场?Most corporates see the opportunity, but few have moved beyond the most limited initial steps. Looking at the most recent annual reports of the oil and gas majors, the shares of total assets and revenue coming from Asia is minimal and far below the region’s weighting in current let alone future demand. Few of the companies have many visible Asian-born leaders.多数企业都看到了由此带来的机遇,然而除了极为有限的初步举措之外,采取进一步措施的企业寥寥无几。从石油和天然气巨头最近的年度报告就能看到,在它们的总资产和营收中,亚洲市场所占份额极小,远低于亚洲在当前全球需求中所占的比重——更不用说将来的需求了。此外,没有几家企业拥有许多明显出生在亚洲的领导人。Taking a long term view, which after all is what the biggest companies are supposed to do, you can’t help feeling that there is a great prize to be won by becoming China’s strategic partner: guaranteeing supplies from across the world market. In a world beyond colonialism that is the function the great multinationals are built to perform.大企业应该着眼于长远,而从长远来看,你会不由得想到,成为中国的战略合作伙伴——确保来自全球市场的供应——将得到巨大实惠。在这个没有了殖民主义的时代,这正是大型跨国公司所应履行的职能。Perhaps it is no coincidence then to find one of the majors sponsoring the brilliant and highly recommended new exhibition of treasures from the Ming Dynasty at the British Museum in London.伦敦大英物British Museum)新近举办的美奂美仑、备受推崇的中国明朝珍宝展,赞助商就是这样一家大型能源公司,这或许并非偶然。来 /201409/331787The spillover of the Syrian refugee crisis to Europe, followed by the Sinai, Beirut, and Paris attacks, demonstrate tragically that the threat posed by Isis has not been contained. It may be true that the organisation is turning its fire abroad because, thanks to international coalition efforts, it can no longer take territory in the region. But that will be small comfort if the result is only more attacks in Europe.叙利亚难民危机导致大量人口流入欧洲——以及随后在西奈、贝鲁特和巴黎发生的恐怖袭击——以惨痛的方式表明,“伊斯兰国ISIS)构成的威胁没有被遏制住。该组织正将口转向海外是因为其无法再在该地区控制领土——多亏了国际联盟的努力——这或许是事实。但是,如果结果只是使欧洲遭遇更多袭击,这也只能算是小小的安慰。Critics of existing efforts to defeat Isis have thus begun to clamour for a new strategy. The problem is that most of their proposals consist of what the ed States and its partners are aly doing: conducting air strikes, blocking foreign fighters and financing, countering extremist ideology, and sharing intelligence. While these efforts can and should be intensified, adding a few more coalition aeroplanes, forward air controllers, or media advisers is not going to fundamentally change the campaign’s trajectory.批评现有打击ISIS努力的人因此开始呼吁采取新策略。问题在于他们提出的多数建议都是美国及其盟友已经在做的事:实施空袭、阻止外国战士加入ISIS并堵住该组织获取资金的渠道,打击极端主义意识形态、以及情报共享。尽管这些努力有可能、也理应有所加强,但是部署更多联盟飞机、前线空中管forward air controller)、或是媒体顾问,无法从根本上改变打击ISIS行动的轨迹。The problem is not that these efforts are misplaced, it is that they target the symptoms of the problem rather than its cause. That cause, to simplify, is that tens of millions of Sunni Muslims living between Damascus and Baghdad and millions more in Europe and elsewhere are resentful, insecure and humiliated by the politics of the region. A small but growing minority has concluded that the only way to address the injustice they perceive is to rally to the perverted cause of the Isis.问题不是这些努力不适当,而是它们只治标而不治本。简单来说,根本问题就是那些生活在大马士革和巴格达之间的数以千万计的——在欧洲及其他地区还有数百万——逊尼派穆斯林,他们愤怒又没有安全保障,在政治上饱受羞辱。规模较小但是人数不断增多的少数派得出结论:要解决他们所遭受的不公,唯一途径是与ISIS非正道的使命同仇敌忾。The problem of disaffected Sunni Muslims is hardly new, but it exploded after the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the decision to disband the Iraqi army. Those moves put a major Arab power under Iranian and Shia control and disenfranchised thousands of armed Sunni men. Afterwards, Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki governed in a sectarian, non-inclusive fashion, driving many Iraqi Sunnis to join an earlier version of Isis, al-Qaeda, in Iraq. In June 2014, when a significant portion of the Sunni population of the city of Mosul sided with the invading Isis against their own government, it was clear efforts to make Iraqi Sunnis feel included had failed.逊尼派穆斯林的不满算不上什么新鲜事,但是在2003年西方入侵伊拉克、以及决定解散伊拉克军队之后,问题就变大了。这些举动将一个阿拉伯大国置于伊朗人和什叶派的控制之下,并且剥夺了成千上万的逊尼派武装分子的选举权。此后,伊拉克什叶派总理努里氠利Nouri al-Maliki)大搞教派主义,实行非包容的政策,促使很多伊拉克逊尼派加入了早期版本的ISIS——基地组al-Qaeda)014月,当苏尔Mosul)很大一部分的逊尼派与入侵的ISIS并肩对抗伊拉克政府时,旨在使伊拉克逊尼派感觉融入的努力显然已经失败。The war in Syria has vastly exacerbated the problem. There, the Bashar al-Assad regime, backed by Shia Iran and Hizbollah, is savagely repressing a largely Sunni opposition. This wanton killing is an inspiration not just for Syrian Sunnis but for foreign fighters flowing to the region, y to die, and kill, for their cause.叙利亚战争使问题严重恶化。在叙利亚,以什叶派为主的伊朗和真主Hizbollah)所持的巴沙尔阿萨Bashar al-Assad)政权,野蛮地镇压主要为逊尼派的反对派。这种肆意杀戮不仅激起了叙利亚逊尼派的反抗,而且使涌入该地区的外国战士随时准备为了他们的使命而赴死和杀戮。Seen in these terms, the strategy we are pursuing, even if bolstered by further military action, will not destroy Isis. The conflicts and injustices in Iraq and Syria are attracting more recruits than we can possibly capture or kill.以此看来,我们目前实行的策略即便有进一步军事行动的撑,也不会摧毁ISIS。伊拉克和叙利亚的冲突和不公正现象正吸引着越来越多的新成员追随ISIS,我们不可能将之全部逮捕或消灭。To deal with the causes of Isis and not the symptoms, two things are essential. The first is to empower the Sunnis of Iraq. The Baghdad government must urgently deliver on its pledges to revise outdated de-Baathification laws, employ more Sunni tribal fighters, create a National Guard, end the disproportionate detention of Sunnis, and put more police on the streets of Sunni areas. Delivering more humanitarian aid to areas freed from Isis control, and curbing the abuses of Shia militia, would also make a huge difference.要从ISIS的发展根源(而非表面症状)入手,有两件事是必不可少的。第一件是向伊拉克逊尼派放权。伊拉克政府必须尽快兑现其修订过时的“非复兴社会党化”相关法律的承诺,启用更多的逊尼派部落战士,建立国民警卫National Guard),结束大力拘捕逊尼派的行为,并且在逊尼派聚居区的街道部署更多警力。向脱离ISIS控制的区域提供更多的人道主义援助、同时阻止什叶派民兵组织的虐待行为,这也会带来巨大改变。In Syria, the overwhelming priority needs to be on de-escalating the conflict, even if that means deferring the question of Mr Assad’s ultimate fate. The Vienna talks, for the first time including both Iran and Saudi Arabia, are a good start. A ceasefire that allows for local governance, makes humanitarian assistance possible, ends the regime’s daily bombing of Sunnis, and ultimately paves the way for a political transition would do more to undermine Isis than any of the military or political steps being discussed.在叙利亚,缓和冲突才是重中之重,即使这意味着暂时搁置有关阿萨德最终命运的问题。首次有伊朗和沙特阿拉伯参与的维也纳会谈是个良好的开端。一份为地方治理留有余地、使人道主义援助成为可能、终结阿萨德政权每天对逊尼派进行的轰炸、并且最终为政治过渡铺平道路的停火协议,比任何正在讨论之中的军事或政治措施都更能动摇ISIS的根基 /201511/412265

A Chinese state-run oil company has signed an oil production deal with the capital of the ed Arab Emirates in a further indication of the deepening ties between oil-rich Gulf states and their energy-hungry Asian customers.中国国有石油公司中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC,简称中石油)与阿联酋首都阿布扎比签署了一份石油生产协议。此举进一步表明,盛产石油的海湾国家与其渴求能源的亚洲客户之间的关系正不断加深。Al Yasat Company for Petroleum Operations, owned 60 per cent by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and 40 per cent by China National Petroleum Company, was formalised by the UAE’s president, the state news agency reported on Tuesday.官方通讯社周二报道,阿布扎比国家石油公司(Abu Dhabi National Oil Company)持股60%、中石油持股40%的Al Yasat石油作业公司(Al Yasat Company for Petroleum Operations),已由阿联酋总统正式宣布成立。The announcement cements a 2012 strategic partnership through which the two parties agreed to develop upstream projects in the oil-rich UAE.这项宣布巩固了双方在2012年达成的、同意在盛产石油的阿联酋开发上游项目的战略合作关系。A consortium from South Korea, which is also deepening energy ties with Abu Dhabi, also struck a similar deal in 2012, taking a 40 per cent interest in the development of three Abu Dhabi oilfields.一个来自韩国的财团也在努力加深与阿布扎比的能源关系,同样在2012年敲定了一项类似的协议,在阿布扎比三个油田的开发中拿到40%的权益。CNPC would help take a share of oil produced in onshore and offshore fields, the news agency said.上述官方通讯社称,中石油将帮助中国从陆地和海上油田分得一部分石油产量。The Chinese group had aly been operating in Abu Dhabi, said one oil executive. The exact scope of the work had yet to be identified, he added.一位石油业高管表示,中石油此前已在阿布扎比展开作业。他补充道,相关合作的具体范围还有待确定。Energy-hungry China has been on the hunt for access to upstream oil and gas resources to fuel economic growth.中国急需能源,一直在寻求获得上游油气资源以推动经济增长。The deal comes as Abu Dhabi, which has 98bn barrels of proven oil reserves, is considering how to extend 75-year-old concessions that elapsed with western oil groups earlier this year.阿布扎比拥有980亿桶已探明石油储量。达成此项协议之际,其正在考虑如何延长今年早些时候到期的、授予西方石油集团的长达75年的特许权。Majors such as ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Total have for decades dominated upstream production in this significant member of the Opec.埃克森美ExxonMobil)、荷兰皇家壳Royal Dutch Shell)、英国石BP)和道达尔(Total)等石油巨头数十年来一直在这个欧佩OPEC)主要成员国主导上游生产。Western oil groups bidding for these contract extensions say the emergence of Asian competitors is not expected to impact the renewal.竞争延长特许合同的西方油企表示,亚洲竞争者的出现预计不会影响合同展期。The UAE is looking to lock in production expertise as it seeks to boost output, most of which heads east to Asia, from ageing oilfields.阿联酋希望锁定石油生产技术,以扩大日益老化的油田的产量。这些油田产出的大部分石油都向东运往亚洲。Abu Dhabi officials have said they hope to raise capacity to 3.5m barrels of oil a day from around 2.9m barrels a day by as early as 2017.阿布扎比官员表示,他们希望最早在2017年将产能从每天约290万桶石油扩大到每50万桶。来 /201405/295247

Russian authorities have placed Vladimir Yevtushenkov, one of the country’s richest men, under house arrest on charges of money laundering.俄罗斯政府指控该国最富有的人之一弗拉基米#8226;叶夫图申科夫(Vladimir Yevtushenkov)洗钱,已对他实行软禁。Mr Yevtushenkov is the chairman and largest holder of AFK Sistema, one of Russia’s biggest private corporations.叶夫图申科夫是俄罗斯最大的私企之一AFK Sistema的董事长和最大股东。Sistema’s subsidiaries include MTS, one of the largest mobile operators in Russia, oil company Bashneft and Russian children’s store Detsky Mir.Sistema旗下子公司包括俄罗斯最大的移动通信运营商之一MTS、石油公司Bashneft以及俄罗斯儿童用品商店Detsky Mir。Forbes ranks Mr Yevtushenkov as the 15th richest man in Russia with a net worth of .8bn. Lord Mandelson, the prominent former British government minister, sits on Sistema’s board.在《福布斯Forbes)的俄罗斯富豪榜上,叶夫图申科夫位列第15位,其净资产8亿美元。知名的英国前内阁大臣曼德尔森勋Lord Mandelson)是Sistema董事会成员。Vladimir Markov, a spokesman for Russia’s investigative committee, the country’s equivalent of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, yesterday said a Russian court had decided to place Mr Yevtushenkov under house arrest. This came after, he said, investigators claimed there were “reasonable groundsto believe Sistema had employed “criminal meansin its acquisition of Bashneft in which Mr Yevtushenkov had been complicit.俄罗斯调查委员会(相当于美国的联邦调查局)发言人弗拉基米尔#8226;马尔科夫(Vladimir Markov)昨日表示,俄罗斯一法院已决定对叶夫图申科夫实行软禁。他表示,此举缘于调查人员称,有“合理依据”相信Sistema在收购Bashneft时采用了“犯罪手段”,而叶夫图申科夫在这件事上难辞其咎。Sistema said in a statement it considered the allegations against him “wholly unfoundedand said it would use “all our opportunities to appeal against itSistema在一份声明中表示,其认为针对叶夫图申科夫的指控“毫无根据”,并表示将利用“我们的一切机会对此提出上诉”。In Russia, criminal investigations are often used as a way to settle political scores.在俄罗斯,刑事调查往往被用来进行政治上的报复。Troubles for Sistema began this summer when authorities in the Bashkortostan Republic, a central Russian region, which is also Bashneft’s former owner, alleged that Sistema had underpaid for the company when it was acquired from the local government in , suing Sistema for .8bn in damages. The lawsuit came ahead of an initial public offering that Bashneft was planning in London.Sistema的麻烦开始于今年夏季,当时位于俄罗斯中部的巴什科尔托斯坦共和国(Bashkortostan Republic)当局指控称,Sistema009年以偏低价格向当地政府收购了Bashneft,并以此为由,请求法庭命令Sistema付58亿美元的损害赔偿金。在此次诉讼之前,Bashneft正计划在伦敦上市。Mr Yevtushenkov’s arrest will deal another blow to Russia’s investment climate, which has rapidly deteriorated this year on the back of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.叶夫图申科夫被捕将让俄罗斯投资环境再受冲击。在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚和莫斯科卷入乌克兰东部冲突的背景下,今年俄罗斯的投资环境迅速恶化。One of Russia’s richest men, Mr Yevtushenkov came to prominence in Moscow in the early 1990s, when he was seen as close to Yuri Luzhkov, the then powerful mayor of Moscow.叶夫图申科夫是俄罗斯的首富之一,他于上世纪90年代初在莫斯科声名鹊起,被认为与强势的时任莫斯科市长尤里#8226;卢日科夫(Yuri Luzhkov)关系密切。He acquired many of his assets during the chaotic privatisations of the Yeltsin era when many state-owned properties were sold off for a song to politically-connected businessmen.他的许多资产都是在叶利钦时代混乱的私有化期间获得的,当时许多国有资产被以极低价格抛售给与政界关系密切的商人。MTS shares fell close to 2 per cent in New York on the news of the arrest.叶夫图申科夫被捕消息传出后,在纽约上市的MTS股价下跌%。来 /201409/329212Angus Deaton, a British-born economist at Princeton University in the US, has won the Nobel Prize for economics for his pioneering work into what determines poverty and how people make their consumption decisions. 出生于英囀?现在任职于美国普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)的经济学家安格斯·迪顿(Angus Deaton)因为开创性的研究工作而获得诺贝尔经济学奖,他的研究揭示了哪些因素决定贫困,以及人们如何作出自己的消费决策。The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said Mr Deaton was awarded the prize ;for his analysis on consumption, poverty and welfare;. 瑞典皇家科学Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)表示,迪顿被授予该奖是因为他“对消费、贫困和福利的分析”;[His research] shows an impressive bth in its approaches: basic theory; statistical methods for testing theories; in-depth knowledge of the quality of existing data; and extensive work on producing new kinds of data.; “(他的研究)在方法上展示了令人印象深刻的广度:基本理论;用于测试理论的统计方法;对现有数据质量的深入把握;以及在产生新类型数据上的大量工作。”A dual US and British citizen, Mr Deaton is the first native Briton to win the Nobel Prize in economics since Clive Granger in 2003. He joins a select list of academics who have won the SKr8m (0,000) prize solo. 拥有美英双重国籍的迪顿,是自2003年克莱夫·格兰Clive Granger)赢得诺贝尔经济学奖以来首位获得这一殊荣的英裔学者。他成为少数独享800万瑞典克朗(8万美元)奖金的学者之一。Mr Deatons work has employed innovative statistical techniques to understand what drives peoples shopping habits and how governments can better foster economic development. 迪顿在研究中采用了创新的统计方法,以求理解哪些因素驱动着人们的购物习惯,政府如何更好地促进经济发展。He has spearheaded the use of more precise microeconomic data to understand what happens in an economy as a whole, questioning well-known assumptions and helping to solve apparent paradoxes on the relation between consumption and income. 他率先利用更精确的微观经济数据探究经济体作为一个整体在发生什么,在此过程中质疑著名的假设,并帮助解决消费和收入之间貌似存在的矛盾;Natural scientists are often sniffy [about the Nobel Prize in economics] as they dont regard it as scientific,; said John Muellbauer, an economist at Oxford university who has worked with Mr Deaton. ;This is an exception, it is evidence-based economics of the highest standard.;“自然科学家往往对(诺贝尔经济学奖)嗤之以鼻,不承认经济学也是科学。”牛津大Oxford university)经济学家、曾与迪顿共事的约翰·米尔鲍尔(John Muellbauer)表示,“这是一个例外,它是最高标准的循经济学。”For example, together with Mr Muellbauer, Mr Deaton compiled a system of equations to understand how consumer decisions regarding different goods interacted. This is essential for governments planning to make policy changes such as cutting value added tax for some products, as such decisions have varying effects on different groups of consumers depending on what they buy. 例如,迪顿曾与米尔鲍尔一起编写了一个方程组,试图描述消费者对于不同商品的决策是如何互动的。对于正在酝酿政策变化(比如降低针对某些产品的增值税)的政府,这种理解是不可或缺的,因为此类决策对不同的消费者群体会产生不同的影响——取决于他们购买什么。He built on work looking at the link between consumption and income by fellow Nobel laureates Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman to understand how changes in income drive changes in consumption. He warned against using aggregate data for the whole economy to justify important policy decisions and showed how it is essential to understand what happens to different groups of consumers, depending on their age or income levels. 他进一步发展了诺贝尔奖得主佛朗哥·莫迪利亚尼(Franco Modigliani)和米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)对于消费和收入之间联系的研究,以求理解收入变化如何驱动消费变化。他警告不要使用整个经济的汇总数据为重要决策提供依据,并且明,了解不同消费者群体的具体情况(取决于他们的年龄或收入水平)是至关重要的。Orazio Attanasio, an economist at University College London, said: ;Angus Deaton is one of the few people who understands consumption behaviour deeply, both across individuals and over time.; 伦敦大学学院(University College London)经济学家奥拉齐奥·阿塔纳西Orazio Attanasio)表示:“安格斯·迪顿是深刻理解消费行为的极少数人之一,他对消费行为的理解不仅涵盖广大个体,还涵盖时间维度。”Mr Deaton advocated the importance of building extensive data sets on consumption patterns to understand the determinants of poverty. Contrary to what was previously assumed, he showed that increasing peoples income leads to a better food intake. As a result, there was little empirical reason to orient aid programmes only towards food as opposed to economy growth, as some agencies had recommended. 迪顿主张构建广泛的消费模式数据集,据此理解贫困的决定因素,他认为这很有必要。与以往的假设相反,他展示了提高人们的收入会带来更好的食物摄入。这意味着,没有什么实理由持某些机构的建议,即援助计划应当专注于提供食物,而非促进经济增长。来 /201510/402992To the casual observer, it’s easy to doubt that China and Russia would have ever struck a natural gas supply and purchase deal during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shanghai last month. After all, countless summits between Chinese and Russian leaders have come and gone with no final agreement signed for the long-discussed plans to ship more Russian gas to China. However, Putin and Xi finally ended an energy courtship, agreeing to a 0 billion deal for the delivery of 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China starting in 2018.中俄天然气交易已经酝酿数年之久,如今终于达成协议。包括这笔交易在内,中俄近十几年年来在能源领域的一系列合作表明,双方弈的主动权已经逐渐从俄罗斯转移到了中国手中。Long before the Chinese and Russian leaders on May 21 toasted their supply contract, the two countries had viewed each other as attractive natural gas partners. Russia regarded tapping into the Chinese market as essential to its plans to diversify its exports away from Europe, where natural gas demand is projected to grow at a substantially slower pace than in China. Meanwhile, the surge in China’s natural gas demand in recent years made the Chinese eye their northern neighbor, the world’s largest natural gas exporter, as an important source of supply to fill the gap between China’s domestic natural gas production and consumption.上个月,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔o普京与中国国家主席习近平在上海会面时,外行的观察者们可能不会相信中俄两国会达成天然气供应协议。毕竟,针对俄罗斯向中国增加天然气出口的问题,两国经历了漫长的谈判,双方领导人也进行了无数次会谈,却始终没有结果。最终,普京与习近平终于敲定,000亿美元的能源合作协议。双方商定,俄罗斯从2018年开始,每年向中国输80亿立方米天然气。Developments in the months leading up to the Shanghai summit may have provided Russia and China with added incentives to get serious about a natural gas marriage. For Russia, the new imperative is the country’s increased isolation from the ed States and Europe in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the resulting Western sanctions.51日,中俄两国领导人为达成天然气供应协议举杯庆贺。事实上,两国很早便将彼此视为极具吸引力的天然气合作伙伴。俄罗斯希望摆脱天然气出口业务对欧洲的依赖,而中国市场对实现这个计划至关重要。根据预测,欧洲市场的天然气需求增长速度将远远低于中囀?而另一面,近几年,中国天然气需求激增,而中国的北方近邻作为全球最大的天然气出口国,自然被中国视为填补国内天然气产量与消费量差距的重要供应来源。Europe’s renewed interest in finding alternatives to natural gas supplies from Russia, and the calls by U.S. policymakers and pundits for Washington to expedite the process for granting LNG export licenses and lift the virtual ban on crude oil exports to help wean Europe off Russian energy, undoubtedly made signing a gas pact with China even more appealing to Moscow.而近几个月,促使两国举行上海峰会的局势变化,也为中俄认真考虑天然气合作提供了更多诱因。在俄罗斯方面,吞并克里米亚地区和由此导致的西方国家制裁使俄罗斯遭到美国和欧洲的进一步孤立,因此,与中国的合作势在必行。For China, the country’s poor air quality and it’s “war on pollutiondeclared by Premier Li Keqiang in March likely increased the desirability of Russian natural gas. Indeed, the Chinese government’s announcement in April that the country aims to more than double the country’s natural gas consumption from 170 bcm in 2013 to 400-420 bcm in 2020 means China now needs Russian gas more than ever.欧洲重新开始寻找新的天然气供应以取代俄罗斯,而美国决策者和华盛顿权威人士呼吁加快授予液化天然气出口许可的进程以及取消原油出口禁令,以帮助欧洲摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖,这无疑使得莫斯科方面更加迫切与中国签署一份天然气协定。The major obstacle that Russia and China encountered on past attempts to make it to the altar was price. Russia did not want to sell gas to China at a price lower than it commanded in Europe, its largest customer. Meanwhile, China did not want to buy gas at a higher price than it paid Turkmenistan, its largest supplier of natural gas.在中国方面,糟糕的空气质量以及今年三月份李克强总理“向污染宣战”的决心使得俄罗斯的天然气更具吸引力。实际上,中国政府今年四月份宣布,到2020年,全国天然气消费量将增长两倍以上,013年的1,700亿立方米增加,000 4,200亿立方米。这就意味着,中国现在更需要俄罗斯的天然气。Although the Russians and the Chinese have come to a meeting of the minds on price, they are treating it as a commercial secret. Consequently, there has been much speculation by outside analysts about the price implied by the 0 billion contract and what it says about which country got the better deal. A back-of-the-envelope calculation yields an implied price of 0 per thousand cubic meters, which is close to what the Chinese are understood to have paid for gas from Turkmenistan last year. This estimate fits with the consensus among many outside observers in the lead up to the summit that Chinese had the upper hand due to Russia’s strained relations with the U.S. and Europe and the number of natural gas producers eager to supply the Chinese market.过去,中俄无法达成天然气协议的主要障碍在于价格。俄罗斯不希望价格低于自己向最大的客户欧洲出口天然气的价格。而中国却不希望价格高于自己从最大天然气供应国土库曼斯坦进口天然气的价格。That said, we do not know the pricing formula, the base number to be plugged into that formula or how a variety of other issues on the negotiating table such as the apparent lack of upstream access in Russia for the Chinese, a rumored prepayment from the Chinese to the Russians, a Russian proposal to exempt gas sent to China from a mineral extraction tax, a Chinese proposal to exempt Russian supplies from an LNG import tax, and expectations about the pace of natural gas price reform in China influenced both countries decisions about price.中俄两国最终就价格问题达成了共识,但双方都把这个价格看成商业机密。因此,对于4,000亿美元合同中隐含的价格以及合同的受益方,外界分析师有大量的猜测。通过大致计算得出的隐含价格是每千立方50美元,基本接近去年中国从土库曼斯坦进口天然气的价格。这个估算结果也符合许多外部观察家在两国领导人峰会之前的一致意见,即由于俄罗斯与美国和欧洲的紧张关系,而且希望向中国市场供应天然气的国家大有人在,因此,中国在谈判中掌握了主动权。It is also important to note that this is not a marriage among equals. The natural gas supply agreement is the third time in the past decade that the Russians have brokered a multi-billion dollar energy deal with the Chinese in a time of need. In 2005, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China were lenders of last resort to Rosneft, providing the Russian national oil company with a billion oil-backed loan to help fund the purchase of the main production asset of a private Russian oil company, Yukos.另外需要注意的一点是,中俄两国在这笔交易中并不是处在平等的地位上。过去十年间,包括此次天然气供应协议在内,俄罗斯曾经三次在有需要的时候与中国达成数十亿美元的能源交易005年,中国国家开发(China Development Bank)与中国进出口(Export-Import Bank of China)成为俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)的最后贷款人,为这家俄罗斯国有石油公司提0亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款,帮助它收购俄罗斯私有石油公司尤科斯(Yukos)的主要生产资产。Four years later, the China Development Bank extended oil-backed loans worth billion to Rosneft and Transneft, the state-owned pipeline operator, when oil prices collapsed and credit crunch during the global financial crisis left both Russian companies in a world of hurt. These deals have not only deepened bilateral energy relations, but also underscored a shift in power in the relationship away from Russia and toward China.四年后,中国国家开发向俄罗斯石油公司和俄罗斯国有管道运营商俄罗斯石油运输公司(Transneft)提供了250亿美元以石油为抵押的贷款。当时正值全球金融危机,石油价格暴跌,信贷紧缩,这两家俄罗斯公司都陷入困境。这几笔交易不仅加深了两国的能源关系,同时也意味着在这种关系中,主动权正在从俄罗斯向中国转移。Regardless of which country may have conceded more, both countries can present themselves as winners to domestic and international audiences. The gas deal signifies that the China-Russia energy relationship is starting to live up to its full potential. Russia, which was China’s fourth largest crude oil supplier in 2013, is poised to become a major source of natural gas imports for its southern neighbor. This arrangement should provide Russia with greater security of demand and China with greater security of supply in the long-term. In the short-term, the main benefits of the gas agreement are political. Russia can claim a powerful friend in China, and China can point to another indicator of its growing economic and political clout on the world stage.不论到底哪一方做出了更多让步,在国内和国际舞台上,中国两国都把自己描绘成获胜者。这次的天然气交易预示着中俄两国的能源关系开始充分发挥潜力013年,俄罗斯是中国第四大原油供应国,未来将成为它南方邻邦重要的天然气进口来源。从长期来看,这份协议将分别给俄罗斯和中国带来更可靠的供应与需求保障。而从短期而言,天然气协议的主要好处表现在政治方面。俄罗斯可以获得中国这个强有力的盟友,而中国也获得了又一次机会,彰显出它在世界舞台日益扩大的经济与政治影响力。Erica Downs is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings Institution. She focuses on the international expansion of Chinese companies and China’s energy and foreign policies as well as government-business relations in China, and was previously was an energy analyst at the CIA.本文作者邓丽嘉是布鲁金斯学会约翰oLo桑顿中国研究中心研究员。她一直致力于研究中国公司的海外扩张、中国的能源和外交政策以及中国政府与企业的关系,之前曾在美国中央情报局担任能源分析师 /201406/307770

Germany has arrested one of its most prominent Islamic extremists on charges he supported a foreign terrorist group.德国以持国外恐怖组织的指控逮捕了该国最知名的伊斯兰极端主义分子之一。German prosecutors announced Tuesday that they have arrested 35-year-old Salafist Sven Lau on four counts of aiding the Syria-based group known as Jaish al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, or JAMWA. The group has been linked to Islamic State.德国检察官星期二宣布,他们以协助在叙利亚的“圣战组织移民和持者武装”等四项罪名,逮捕5岁的萨拉非斯特·史文·劳。该组织和伊斯兰国恐怖组织有牵连。Lau is suspected of recruiting fighters for the group as well as providing financial and material support.史文·劳涉嫌为该组织招募战士以及提供财政和物质持。Lau, a convert to Islam, gained fame last year when he organized a force of so-called ;Sharia police; in the German city of Wuppertal. The men wore orange jackets marked ;Sharia Police; and patrolled the streets trying to enforce strict adherence to Islamic law, demanding that nightclub patrons stop drinking, gambling, and listening to music.皈依伊斯兰教的史文·劳因为去年在德国伍珀塔尔市组织了一个名叫“伊斯兰法警察”的队伍而出名。该组织成员身穿印有“伊斯兰法警察”的橘色马甲在街上巡逻,试图严格实施伊斯兰法,并要求光顾夜总会的人停止酗酒、和听音乐。A Wuppertal court last Thursday decided not to prosecute the men. The ruling has sparked nationwide controversy.伍珀塔尔市法庭上周四决定不起诉这些人。这一裁决在德国全国引发争议。来 /201512/415972

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