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时间:2019年07月22日 15:57:25

Opec has joined a chorus of energy industry voices saying oil demand might peak within 15 years, as quicker adoption of alternative fuel cars and more aggressive climate targets look set to bring more than a century of rising consumption to a halt.石油输出国组织(Opec,简称欧佩克)附和了能源行业很多人的预言,称石油需求可能在15年内达到顶峰。替代燃料汽车的加速普及以及更激进的气候目标,看来将终结持续了一个多世纪的石油消费增长。The forecast is the first official recognition from the producers’ cartel that oil demand — the source of the majority of its 14-members’ revenues — may soon top out, despite predictions the global vehicle fleet could almost double in 20 years as emerging economies develop.该预测是这个产油国卡特尔首次正式承认石油需求——其14个成员国大部分财政收入来源——可能很快见顶,尽管有预测称,随着新兴经济体的发展,20年后全球汽车总量可能增加近一倍。Opec is not the first to argue oil demand might soon peak, but the forecast carries weight coming from a group that collectively pumps more than a third of world oil supplies.欧佩克并不是首个认为石油需求可能很快见顶的组织,但作为一个占世界石油供应三分之一以上的集团,其预测是有分量的。Royal Dutch Shell said last week that oil consumption might stop growing within five to 15 years, highlighting the threat to an industry that has enjoyed almost uninterrupted demand growth since the first commercial well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859.荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)上周表示,石油消费量可能在5至15年内停止增长,突显了该行业面临的威胁;自1859年第一口商业油井在宾夕法尼亚州开钻以来,该行业一直获益于几乎从不间断的需求增长。Predictions of a peak are predicated on the Paris climate agreement’s targets being fully implemented as well as faster adoption of alternative fuel cars.预测石油需求见顶的假设是,巴黎气候协议目标全面实施以及替代燃料汽车加快普及。Opec’s prediction is only one of a range of scenarios published in its annual long-term outlook, which forecasts how the market might look over the next 25 years. Its core scenario sees oil demand continuing to expand to 2040 and beyond if countries are less aggressive in trying to curb emissions.欧佩克的预测只是其年度长期展望中设想的一系列情形之一,该展望预测了未来25年市场可能呈现的格局。其核心情形是,如果各国不那么积极地尝试遏止排放,石油需求将持续扩张至2040年乃至更遥远的未来。“The uncertainties associated with energy and environmental policies at both national and international levels cloud the outlook for energy demand and supply, especially in the long term,” Opec said.“国家和国际层面能源和环境政策的不确定性,使能源需求和供应的前景(特别是长期前景)被蒙上阴云,”欧佩克表示。Opec’s prediction on peak demand also sounds a warning to its members who have aly been grappling with a prolonged price downturn. Saudi Arabia, Opec’s largest producer, has been racing to reduce its reliance on oil revenues, launching an ambitious plan to overhaul its economy including listing part of state oil giant Saudi Aramco.欧佩克有关需求见顶的预测,听起来也像是对其已经在应对油价持续低迷的成员国发出警告。欧佩克最大的成员国沙特阿拉伯正忙于降低其对石油收入的依赖,推出一个雄心勃勃的计划来推动经济转型,包括将国有的沙特阿美石油公司(Saudi Aramco)的一部分上市。Opec’s scenario that envisages countries hitting their Paris targets includes poorer nations whose pledges are conditional on financial support. Under that outlook, the cartel said demand peaks in 2029 at 100.9m barrels a day and then declines to 98.3m by 2040. Opec sees oil demand this year at around 94.4m b/d.欧佩克假设各国达到巴黎减排目标的情形包括较贫穷国家,它们的承诺以财政持为条件。在这一前景下,欧佩克称1.009亿桶/日的需求顶峰将在2029年到来,随后在2040年降至9830万桶/日。欧佩克认为今年的石油需求在9440万桶/日左右。 /201611/476855

Drug-resistant gonorrhea is on the increase. It causes severe reproductive complications and disproportionately affects sexual, racial and ethnic minorities. (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)抗药性淋病感染正在增加。它导致严重的并发症,且不成比例的影响不同性别,种族。(感染性疾病研究所)Infections from three sexually transmitted diseases have hit another record high, federal health officials reported.三种性病感染创历史新高,联邦卫生官员称More than 1.5 million cases of chlamydia were reported last year, up 6 percent from the year before. About 400,000 cases of gonorrhea were reported, a nearly 13 percent increase from 2014. The biggest increase, 19 percent, occurred in syphilis cases, with nearly 24,000 reported, according to the annual report on STDs released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.据疾病控制与预防中心关于性病的年度报告称:去年发现了超过150万衣原体感染病例,较前年上升了6%。约40万淋病病例,自2014年上升了近13%。梅毒感染病例增长最多,上升了19%,将近24000病例。All three diseases are curable with antibiotics, but gonorrhea is growing increasingly resistant to treatment with antibiotics.三种疾病均可用抗生素治疗,但淋病对抗生素治疗的抗性正在增加。CDC officials said STD rates are rising at a time when many of the country’s systems for preventing those infections have eroded. In recent years, more than half of state and local STD programs have had their budgets cut, resulting in more than 20 health department STD clinics closing in one year alone, the CDC said. In 2014, the number of chlamydia cases also rose to record levels.疾病控制与预防中心说在许多国家防控相关传染病系统关闭后,性病率升高。近年来,超过一半联邦和地方的性病项目遭到预算削减,单单一年时间内就导致超过二十个健康部门性病门诊关闭,疾病控制与预防中心说。在2014年,淋病病例也曾达到历史新高。“We have reached a decisive moment for the nation,” said Jonathan Mermin, director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention.“我们国家正处在决定性的时刻,” 乔纳森默明,国家疾控中心艾滋病病毒/艾滋病、病毒性肝炎、性病和结核病防空主任说。Americans ages 15 to 24 account for half of the estimated 20 million new STDs in the ed States each year. Numbers and rates of reported cases of chlamydia and gonorrhea continue to be highest among those ages 15 to 24. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)15-24岁的美国人预计在每年2000万新增性病感染中约占一半。在已发现的感染衣原体、淋病的数量和比例,15-24岁仍将是最高的(疾病控制与预防中心)。Most STD cases continue to go undiagnosed and untreated, putting people at risk for severe and often irreversible health consequences, the CDC said. The economic burden to the U.S. health-care system is nearly billion a year, according to the CDC.大部分经病感染者未确诊未治疗,使人们处于严重且常常是不可逆的风险中,疾病控制与预防中心说,对美国卫生保健系统造成每年160亿财政负担。Young people and gay and bisexual men face the greatest risk of infection, and there continues to be a troubling increase in syphilis among newborns, who are infected by their mothers.年轻人、同性恋和双性恋男性面临更大的感染风险,母婴传染导致的新生儿梅毒继续令人不安的增多。The 2015 data, the latest available, show:2015年最新的数据显示:Americans age 15 to 24 accounted for nearly two-thirds of chlamydia diagnoses and half of gonorrhea diagnoses.15-24岁美国人占2/3的衣原体确诊病例,和一半的淋病确诊病例。Men who have sex with men accounted for the majority of new gonorrhea cases and the most contagious forms of syphilis.啪男人的男人占大部分新增淋病病例,也是最多的梅毒感染途径。Women’s rate of syphilis diagnosis increased by more than 27 percent from 2014 to 2015.女性梅毒确诊病例从2014年到2015年上升了超过27%。Congenital syphilis, which occurs when the infection is transmitted from a pregnant woman to her baby, increased by 6 percent.先天性梅毒,即由怀的母亲传染给孩子的梅毒,上升了6%。Officials urged health-care providers to make STD screening a standard part of medical care, especially in pregnant women. Individuals need to get tested regularly and reduce risk by using condoms.官方敦促卫生保健提供者将性病筛查纳入医疗,特别是妇。个人需要定期测试和用避套降低风险。 /201703/499801

The tobacco industry should be dead by now. 烟草行业到现在应该已经死亡。Billions of dollars in lawsuits, public health campaigns, heavy restrictions on advertising, none have succeed in killing it. 数十亿美元的诉讼、公共卫生宣传、严格的广告限制,都没有成功掐灭这个行业。Forty million Americans still smoke — 15 per cent of women and about 20 per cent of men. 美国仍有4000万人吸烟,占女性的15%,占男性的20%左右。Chances are they’ll die a decade before non-smokers but they keep lighting up.他们可能比不吸烟者早死10年,但他们仍在吞云吐雾。Around the world, antismoking campaigns have succeeded in stabilising the rise in the number of smokers. 在全球范围内,禁烟运动成功稳定了吸烟者数量的增加。In China, sales are falling. 在中国,香烟销售额在下滑。In Australia, cigarettes must be sold in drab green packages covered in pictures of tumours, diseased hearts and lungs, and dying smokers. 在澳大利亚,香烟必须以单调的绿色包装销售,包装上有肿瘤、患病心脏和肺以及垂死吸烟者的图片。The brand name can only appear in small font on the front. 品牌名称只能以小字体出现在包装正面。The logic is that unbranded cigarettes are less appealing to the young who might otherwise see them as a statement of fashion or rebellion.其逻辑是,无品牌香烟不那么吸引年轻人,否则他们可能视其为一种时尚或反叛的声明。Yet, for all this, tobacco companies have proved crafty and resilient. 然而,尽管如此,烟草公司已被明足智多谋且灵活善变。This week John Boehner, the Republican former speaker of the House of Representatives, joined the board of Reynolds American, the makers of Camel and Newport. 最近,美国前众议院议长、共和党人约翰#8226;纳(John Boehner)加入雷诺美国(Reynolds American)董事会,该公司是骆驼香烟(Camel)和新港(Newport)香烟的生产商。Mr Boehner is a Camel Ultra-Lights man and his job will be to speak for tobacco in Washington.纳是骆驼超醇香烟(Camel Ultra-Lights)的爱好者,他的工作将是在华盛顿为烟草公司辩护。During the summer, Newport engaged in its first direct-to-consumer marketing campaign in 15 years, promoting its menthol cigarettes at music festivals around the country using the Newport Pleasure Lounge, an air-conditioned trailer for smokers. 今年夏季,新港展开了15年来首次直接面向消费者的营销活动,利用为吸烟者准备的一辆配有空调的拖车Newport Pleasure Lounge,在全国各地的音乐节上促销其薄荷香烟。Menthols, Newport reckons, have new potential among younger consumers who crave flavour. 新港估计,薄荷香烟在渴求风味的较年轻消费者中具有新的潜力。They provide all the hit of a traditional cigarette with a cool blast of mint. 它们提供传统香烟的所有提神效果,同时加上了一种清凉的薄荷浓香。Anyone willing to drink Budweiser’s Lime-A-Rita beer margarita, goes the theory, will be willing to take up menthols. 按照这种理论,任何一个希望饮用百威(Budweiser)青柠丽塔啤酒(Lime-A-Rita)的人都愿意尝试薄荷香烟。Whether these are the deranged ravings of product marketing or truth, only the market will tell.这些是产品营销的疯言疯语还是事实,只有市场能够作出评判。Japan Tobacco recently entered the US market with its inexpensive LD cigarettes. 日本烟草公司(Japan Tobacco)最近进入美国市场,推出了价格不高的乐迪(LD)香烟。In North Carolina, the home of US tobacco, where prices are among the lowest, a pack of LD costs just over half the price of a pack of Marlboro. 在美国烟草的故乡北卡罗来纳州,一包乐迪香烟的售价仅为万宝路(Marlboro)的一半多一点,而该州的香烟价格处于全球最低之列。Japan Tobacco’s logic is that the antismoking movement in the US is waning. 日本烟草公司的逻辑是,美国的禁烟运动正在衰落。There are fewer lawsuits, prices keep rising and the decline in the number of smokers seems to have slowed.诉讼数量减少,价格持续上涨,吸烟者数量的下滑趋势似乎已放缓。It feels as though, after years of hiding in plain sight, the tobacco industry is once again y to strut. 感觉好像是,在经过多年在人们眼皮底下藏身后,烟草行业正准备再次昂首阔步。Yet, for investors, the product has never stopped churning out returns. 然而,对于投资者而言,这种产品从未停止产生利润。A recent report from Credit Suisse covering industries with data going back to 1900 showed that tobacco had performed best, with an annualised return of 14.6 per cent compared with an average of 9.6 per cent. 瑞信(Credit Suisse)最近一份报告囊括了各种行业,数据回溯到1900年。A dollar invested in tobacco companies in 1900 would have grown, with reinvested dividends, to ,255 by the end of 2014. 报告显示,烟草行业表现最佳,年化回报率达到14.6%,而平均水平为9.6%。如果你在1900年投资烟草公司1美元,并将股息用于再投资,到2014年底这笔投资将增值至3.8255万美元。If you had invested the same dollar in shipbuilding and shipping, you would have a measly ,225.如果你用同样的钱投资造船和航运业,你只能拿回区区1225美元。The California Public Employees’ Retirement System sold its tobacco holdings 16 years ago, in the thick of the litigation against tobacco companies, but has said it may reconsider its decision.16年前,加州公务员养老体系(California Public Employees’ Retirement System)出售了其在烟草公司的持股,当时抵制烟草公司的诉讼非常多,但该机构表示,可能会重新考虑其决定。So what’s the secret? At one level, it’s simple. 那么秘诀是什么?从一个层面来说,很简单。Cigarettes are cheap to make and highly addictive, which allows for fat margins. 香烟生产成本廉价,而且很容易让人上瘾,达到丰厚利润率的空间巨大。And customers are loyal to their brands. 消费者忠于品牌。Snag them when they are young and chances are you’ll have them until they give up or die.如果在消费者年轻时就抓住机会,那么他们就很有可能会一直吸这种品牌的香烟,直到他们戒烟或死去。But tobacco companies have also proved remarkably innovative in the face of apparently existential threats. 但事实还明,面对貌似生死存亡的威胁,烟草公司具有惊人的创新能力。Chewing tobacco sales have been creeping up. 嚼烟的销售额一直在缓慢攀升。The market in ecigarettes, which heat tobacco fluid rather than burning cured leaves, is rapidly growing as companies figure out how deliver more nicotine per puff and send it deep into a smoker’s lungs. 电子香烟市场(加热烟草液体,而不是燃烧卷烟)正迅速壮大,烟草公司琢磨出如何增加每口吸入的尼古丁含量并令其深入吸烟者的肺。Sixteen per cent of school pupils aged 17-18 had smoked ecigarettes in the past year, according to US government estimates.根据美国政府的估计,过去一年,在17至18岁的学生中,有16%吸过电子香烟。Cigarette companies have even ridden the organic wave. 烟草公司甚至搭上了有机的浪潮。Reynolds American makes Natural American Spirit cigarettes, which it describes as natural, additive free and made with organic tobacco. 雷诺美国生产了Natural American Spirit香烟,称其为天然、无添加剂而且用有机烟草生产。The packets show a figure of a native American smoking a long pipe.香烟包装上是一张美国原住民抽旱烟的图片。Antismoking campaigners say, call them what you like, the cigarettes are just as bad for you as any other. 禁烟活动人士(你怎么称呼都行)表示,这种香烟和其他香烟一样对人体有害。But the marketing message — that somehow in smoking them you are tapping into some ancient, herbal ritual — goes down especially well with hipsters. 但这种营销信息(吸这种烟会让你重拾一些古老的、草本的仪式)尤其受到潮人的欢迎。A packet of Natural American Spirit is acceptable in environments where Marlboro is not.在万宝路不被接受的某些环境,一包Natural American Spirit可以让人接受。Tobacco companies also benefit from rising incomes in emerging economies. 烟草公司还受益于新兴经济体收入的日益增加。Even if the number of smokers is stagnant or falling in many places, you can keep pushing up the price of cigarettes as wages rise in emerging markets to compensate. 即便很多地区的吸烟者数量不增或下降,随着新兴市场的薪资上涨,你仍可以推高香烟价格作为弥补。If you put aside the health consequences, a pack of 20 remains a cheap thrill.如果你抛开健康后果,一包20的香烟仍然是一种廉价的刺激。For those who have rightly been banging on for years about the iniquity of tobacco companies, it must be maddening. 对于那些多年来正当抨击烟草公司罪恶的人而言,这肯定令人恼火。For every blow they land, the industry feints into new areas of profitability. 每当他们展开抨击时,该行业都会虚晃一,进入新的盈利领域。It seems quite possible that, 100 years from now, it will still be churning out cash at a rate to turn the rest of the Dow Jones green.100年后,该行业仍将实现高额利润,而其利润率将让道琼斯指数(Dow Jones)其他股票艳羡。 /201610/469782

China’s asset bubble did not burst last year, it just changed location — from equities to residential property. 去年,中国的资产泡沫没有破裂,只是换了地方,从股市转移到了住宅房地产市场。Last month, in an effort to cool the frenzy, the government introduced property price cooling measures. 上月,中国政府为了给房地产市场降温,推出了抑制房价的举措。On Friday, official data showed that these have halted the run in cities including Shenzhen. 上周五,官方数据显示,这些举措遏制了各城市的房价上涨趋势,包括深圳。There, interest looks set to shift back to the stock market as a scheme will open soon, allowing foreigners to trade Shenzhen-listed stocks through Hong Kong accounts.在深圳,投资者的兴趣似乎将返回股市,因为一项计划即将启动,将允许境外投资者通过香港账户交易在深圳上市的股票。In 1980, as part of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, Shenzhen was designated a special economic zone; a test ground for a more freewheeling, capitalist system under Chinese communism. 1980年,作为邓小平改革计划的一部分,深圳被列为经济特区;成为在中国共产党统治下一个测试更自由资本主义制度的场所。Its proximity to Hong Kong bolstered its position in modernisation drives. 深圳毗邻香港,这增强了其在中国现代化进程中的地位。In the most recent residential property recovery it has also led the way: prices have nearly doubled in two years.在最近这轮住宅房地产市场涨势中,深圳也一马当先:房价在两年内几乎翻了一番。The appeal is not just speculative. 深圳并非只吸引投机。Shenzhen is home to China’s Silicon Valley, hosting tech companies from Tencent and Huawei to space explorers and start-ups. 深圳是中国的硅谷所在地,很多科技公司在这里落户,从腾讯(Tencent)到华为(Huawei),这里有探险家和初创企业。In October, Apple said it will open a research lab in the city. 今年10月,苹果(Apple)表示,将在深圳开设一个研究实验室。Taiwanese iPhone assembler Foxconn and SoftBank-owned chipmaker Arm will, too.台湾iPhone组装企业富士康(Foxconn)和由软银(SoftBank)所有的芯片制造商Arm也要这么做。Shenzhen is also home to China’s second largest stock market with a capitalisation of .5tn (to Shanghai’s tn). 此外,深圳是中国第二大股市所在地,市值达3.5万亿美元(上海为4万亿美元)。In August, regulators began the process of opening a stock connect link with Hong Kong, mimicking one in place with Shanghai. 今年8月,中国监管机构开始筹备启动深港通,仿效上海的沪港通。The new link will allow foreign investors to buy Shenzhen-listed A shares directly. 这一新计划将允许境外投资者直接购买在深圳上市的A股。Recent reports suggest it could open as soon as next week.最近的报道称,深港通最早可能在本周开通。There will be appetite. 投资者将会产生兴趣。At an average 24 times forecast 2017 earnings, the Shenzhen index is more expensive than Shanghai (13 times). 深圳股指2017年预期市盈率平均为24倍,比上海(13倍)昂贵。But growth is higher: earnings are forecast to rise by four-fifths from 2015 — twice the rate of Shanghai. 但增长更快:预计收益将比2015年增长五分之四,增幅是上海的两倍。That is partly down to index make-up. 这在一定程度上归因于其股指构成。Shenzhen is home to tech and healthcare names; Shanghai more stodgy financials. 很多科技和医疗公司在深圳上市;而在上海上市的更多的是古板乏味的金融公司。Even if China’s property surge slows, Shenzhen’s appeal will endure.即便中国的房地产热潮降温,深圳的吸引力也将继续存在。 /201611/479683


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