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环山乡妇女医院门诊官网富阳妇女保健医院打孩子Science and Technology科技Climate and the solar cycle气候与太阳周期Chilling out in the winter sun冬日下的冷噤Stratospheric changes can lead to nasty cold snaps平流层变化引起讨厌的严寒THOSE unconvinced-and those seeking to unconvince others-of the reality of man-made global warming often point to the changeable behaviour of the sun as an alternative hypothesis.那些自己不信和那些游说他人不要相信人类活动导致全球变暖的人,常常将其归咎于太阳活动多变。A new study showing how the severity of winters in Europe, and warming in the Arctic, might be linked to changes in solar activity might seem to add to this case.一项新的研究似乎为此提供了新据:该研究显示欧洲冬日的严寒以及北极地区的温暖也许真与太阳活动有关。In itself, it does not, for the heat (or, rather, the cold) in question is being redistributed, not retained.就研究本身而言,它并不能提供新的据,因为所提到的热能(或者是寒气)是被重新分配而不是滞留固定的。But it does point to two other lessons about climate change: that hard data on the factors which affect it are sometimes difficult to come by;但它的确指出了关于气候变化的另外两个问题:一是有时候很难获得影响气候变化的因素的切实数据;and that computer models of the climate can be quite impressive tools for working out what is going on.二是计算机气候模型在探究气候现象方面是十分强大的工具。The suns activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle, and over this cycle the amount of ultraviolet (UV) light the sun emits changes a lot more than does the total amount of energy.太阳活动的盛衰以11年为一个周期,在一个周期内,太阳放射的紫外线的变化幅度要比其放射的能量的变化幅度要大得多。The stratosphere, the part of the Earths atmosphere which does most to absorb UV, might thus be expected to particularly sensitive to the cycle.因此,地球大气中吸收最多紫外线的平流层也许对这一周期变化最为敏感。In a paper just published in Nature Geoscience, Sarah Ineson of Britains Meteorological Office and her colleagues compared the way that the Met Offices new and putatively improved climate model dealt with winters at times of high UV and at times of low UV, using data on the amount of ultraviolet the sun gives off that were collected by a satellite called SORCE.《自然地球科学》杂志刚刚发表的一篇论文上,英国气象局的莎拉?伊内森和她的同事们利用SORCE(太阳辐射和气候试验)卫星收集的太阳放射的紫外线数据,对比了气象局新建立的改良版气候模型对于紫外线峰值年与低谷年的冬天的处理方式。Dr Ineson found that at low UV levels the stratosphere in the tropics was cooler, because there was less UV for it to absorb, which meant the difference in temperature between the tropical stratosphere and the polar stratosphere shrank.伊内森士发现,热带平流层在紫外线低谷年的温度偏低,因为可吸收的紫外线较少,这就使得热带平流层与极地平流层的温差缩小。That changed the way the atmosphere circulated, and as those changes sp down into the lower atmosphere they made it easier for cold surface air from the Arctic to come south in winter, freezing chunks of northern Europe.这一温差变化会改变大气循环的方式,而低层大气循环方式的改变让冬天北极冷空气更易南下,冰冻北欧大片地区。These conditions looked similar to those seen in the past two cold European winters-which occurred at a time of low solar activity.这些状况与欧洲上两次均发生在太阳活动沉静期的严酷寒冬的状况十分相似。The Arctic itself, in models and in real life, was warmer than usual, as were parts of Canada.这种状况下,无论在气候模型中还是现实中,北极和加拿大部分地区都比平常要温暖。In contrast, northern Europe, swathes of Russia and bits of America were colder.相比之下,北欧、俄罗斯大部分地区以及美国小部分地区则比平常要冷。Why had this solar effect not been seen before?为何太阳在这方面的影响之前未被发现?To some extent it had.某种程度上说,的确有前人初见其端倪。Earlier modelling of a period of prolonged low solar activity in the 17th and 18th centuries showed similar patterns.早前一个的反映十七、十八世纪偏长的太阳活动低迷期的模型显示了类似的气候变化模式。That models of todays climate had not was, in part, because they used much lower estimates of the amount of UV variation over the solar cycle than those derived from the SORCE data, the most precise to be taken from a satellite looking at the sun.今日的模型未能发现这一影响的部分原因是,与SORCE卫星收集的最精确数据所计算衍生的数值相比,这些模型对太阳活动周期内紫外线值的变化幅度估计过低。It may just be that working with more realistic data made the model work better.也许就是更切实的数据让这些模型做得更好。This does not mean the question is settled.但问题并没有解决。Some scientists suspect the SORCE data may be exaggerating the suns variability, and if they were revised the link might go away.有些科学家认为SORCE卫星的数据有夸大太阳活动变化幅度的嫌疑,如果将数据加以修正,那么太阳活动与气候的所谓联系很可能也不复存在。There are other theories around seeking to explain the recent cold winters, too.还有其他一些理论也致力于找出近期严酷寒冬发生的原因。Improving predictions of future cold winters on the basis of this work, as the researchers say they would like to do, may thus prove hard.如研究人员所说,基于这项工作的成果,他们就有可能对寒冬做出更精准的预测。But though global warming has made people look to models as predictors of the future, that is not their strongest suit.尽管全球变暖使人们将气候模型视为预测工具,但这可不是它们最强大的地方。Something they can do much better is look at what happens when a variable such as UV is altered, compare that with the data, and thus gain insight into the mechanisms by which climate works.它们更精于研究当紫外线等某一变量变化时发生的情况,并将其与已有数据进行比较,从而了解气候运作机制。This new research provides a good example of what such an approach can achieve.此项新研究很好地给我们展现了这一方法的潜能。 /201211/207279富阳人流时间多久 常安镇做产检哪家医院最好的

杭州富阳骨伤科医院上环Business商业Express Scripts and Medco美国快捷药方公司与美可保健Bigger means cheaper越大越便宜A new drugs manager may change the way Americans pop their pills全新的药物管理者可能改变美国人购买药品的方式IT TOOK eight months and more than 200 interviews.花了八个多月的时间,会面达到200多次。But on April 2nd Americas Federal Trade Commission (FTC) decided, in a three-to-one vote, to let Express Scripts acquire Medco.但是4月2日,美国联邦贸易委员会以三比一的投票决定同意美国快捷药方公司收购美可保健。The two firms are Americas second-biggest and biggest pharmacy-benefit managers.两家公司合并后将成为美国第二大药品公司以及最大的药品福利管理者。Eventually, they may change the way Americans take drugs.这两家公司的合并可能最终改变美国人购买药物的方式。Despite an intolerably dull title, pharmacy-benefit managers (PBMs) are important.尽管标题无聊的令人无法忍受,但是药品福利管理者(PBMs)十分重要。America is the worlds biggest drug market; in 2010 it spent more than 7 billion on prescription medicines.美国是世界上最大的药品市场;2010年美国在处方药上的花费达到3070亿美元。PBMs are the middlemen that manage drug costs for employers and insurers. Together, Express Scripts and Medco will control more than 40% of the market.药品福利管理是是平衡雇主和保险公司之间医药费用的中间人,快捷药方公司与美可保健一起将能控制40%以上的药品市场份额。Express Scripts announced the acquisition in July 2011. Medco was a good company that had had a bad year, and so looked cheap.快捷药方公司曾宣布在2011年7月完成收购工作,美可保健去年情况不佳,看起来有点贬值,但美可保健是一个业绩不错的公司。It had lost about 30% of its business in a few months as some of its largest clients ended their contracts.由于一些大客户终止了合同,美可保健几个月内就损失了30%的生意。For both firms, bigger ought to mean better.对两家公司来说,扩大经营必须意味着良好的收益。With scale would come the power to negotiate fatter discounts on drugs, lowering costs for employers and insurers.大规模将在药品折扣问题的商讨上占有更大的优势,并降低雇佣者和保险公司的成本。Pharmacists felt sick when they heard the news.听说了这个消息之后药剂师感觉并不好。PBMs encourage consumers to fill their prescriptions through the mail instead of going to a costly pharmacy.药品福利管理者鼓励消费者通过邮件方式而不是通过花费过高的药品公司购买药物。PBMs, pharmacists fret, will crush their fees for dispensing drugs.药品福利管理者让药剂师们很头痛,药品福利管理者会把削减开处方药的费用。Worse, PBMs will demand that drugmakers give them exclusive deals for new, complex medicines.更糟糕的是,药品福利管理者要求药品制造上对于新药和合成药给与特别的折扣。Competitors and consumers will suffer, the pharmacists argue.药剂师认为竞争者和消费者都会遭受损失。The FTC disagreed.联邦贸易委员会并不这么认为。The merged firm is unlikely to squeeze pharmacies fees for dispensing drugs, it ruled.合并后的公司不可能压榨药剂师配置药物的费用,只是对此收费进行规范。There remain plenty of lively, smaller PBMs.市场中还有很多小规模活跃的药品福利管理者。John Kreger of William Blair, an investment bank, says there is enough turmoil—thanks both to the merger and to Express Scripts continuing fight with Walgreens, a big pharmacy—that smaller PBMs may snatch new business in the next year.投资William Blair的John Kreger说已经够乱了——多亏两家公司的合并,还有快捷药方公司与大型的医药公司Walgreens不断的竞争——小规模的药品福利管理者明年会抢走新业务。The small fry may also benefit if the pharmacy lobbys lawsuit against the merger moves forward.如果反对合并进程的药品游说诉讼能够成功的话,小公司也能从中获益。The combined firm will have billion in revenue in 2012, estimates Lawrence Marsh, an analyst at Barclays Capital.据巴莱克集团的分析师Lawrence Marsh预测,合并后的公司在2012年的收益能够达到910亿美元。It is so big that it could shape a new era for Americas drug market.收益如此巨大以至于可以塑造美国药品市场的新纪元。As more drugs lose their patents, consumers will increasingly fill their prescriptions with generics.由于越来越多的药品不再拥有专利权,越来越多的消费者都会使用非专利药物开具处方。If Express Scripts has its way, they will also fill their prescriptions by post.如果快捷药品公司也采用此方法,那么他们也会采取邮寄方式开药方。Medco recently acquired a firm that compares the efficacy of different drugs.美可保健最近收购了一家比较药品不同功效的公司。This may prove useful when America begins to see cheap copies of complex drugs, called biosimilars, which will be tested against the originals.美国开始看到合成药剂的复制品,即生物仿制药,价格低廉,能用来与源药品做对比试验。此时上述收购还是极为有益的。The new Express Scripts may also play a role on Barack Obamas new insurance exchanges, working with insurers to court individuals shopping for health care.新的快捷药方公司同样在奥巴马提出的新型保险交易中扮演了重要角色,他和保险代理人一起劝说个人购买健康保险。Most intriguingly, the new Express Scripts could push Americans to buy the right medicines and take them at the right time.最有趣的是新的快捷药方公司可以推动美国人在正确的时间购买正确的药物。For years PBMs have tested ways to urge consumers to buy cheaper, effective drugs.几年来,药品福利管理者尝试新的方法以促使消费者购买便宜而有效的药物,For example, if a patient wants a branded pill rather than a generic, he must pay for more of it himself.例如如果病人想购买品牌药物而非一般药物,他要为多出的费用自己掏腰包。Experiments will probably scale up and become more sophisticated.这样的试验将逐步扩大规模,也会越来越复杂。Eventually, they might even sp to Medicaid, the public programme for the poor.最终将波及医疗补助计划,该计划是救助穷人的公共计划。Health reform (unless the Supreme Court strikes it down) will add 16m new members to Medicaid by 2019, a 27% jump.到2019年,健康改革(除非最高法院将其驳回)将增加160万名新的受益者,约增长了27%。PBMs such as Medco and Express Scripts have so far spent little time chasing the Medicaid market.像美可保健和快捷药方公司这样的药品福利管理者迄今为止在医疗补助计划投入的时间还不多。That may change.这种情况可能会有所改变。 /201210/205819富阳区中山综合门诊部属于几级 Reason you are gonna go to mercury as a travel destination would be this night sight view because its gonna be highly unique in the solar system.你要把水星作为一个旅游目的地的原因就是夜间的景色,因为它在太阳系里是独一无二的。You have sodium that atoms are streaming off and giving off to see a lot white.你有钠原子正在发散而且散发很多白色的光。So you could almost look like you are standing in a donut of sodium emission.因此你会看上去像站在钠排放的面包圈里。With the sunrise three months away, you have plenty of time to sit back and take in the view, frame in a hallow of ember light.当太阳光照离开3个月,你就有足够的时间坐下来,欣赏美景,好像在一个光的中心。In some sets, you can get a very nice light show and now people go to Canada to look at the northern whites all the time and so that would be a reason to go to mercury.在一些地方,你就会看到非常不错的灯光秀,而现在人们去加拿大看光秀,所以这也是一个到水星去的不错理由。Now the night out then head into the light.现在晚上然后一头进入了光的世界。But when you are this close to a stellar-wrote history, make sure you pack plenty of sun scream.但是当你这进入星星的历史,确保你已经对太阳光做好准备。If you want a suntan, you cannot beat the dusty sands of mercury. 如果你想要晒黑,你就不能打掉水星满是灰尘的沙子。Stretch out on the ground here and the sun crackles and fizzes right above you, appearing almost three times bigger in the sky and seven times as hot.在这里的地面伸展自己让上面的太阳直接照射你,天空近三倍大的太阳而且是七倍热量。注:听力文本来源于普特201203/173921富阳市第一人民医院过年

富阳张氏骨科医院妇科 Science and technology科学技术Collective behavior集体行为Follow my leader跟领导走A groups “intelligence” depends in part on its membersignorance群体“智慧”部分依赖于群体成员的“愚昧”HUMAN beings like to think of themselves asthe animal kingdoms smartest alecks.人们总是喜欢将自己看作动物王国中最聪明的。It may come as a surprise to some,therefore, that Iain Couzin of Princeton University believes they havesomething to learn from lesser creatures that move about in a large crowd.然而,令一些人感到惊讶的是,普林斯顿大学的Iain Couzin相信人们能从更低等的、大群活动的动物中学到东西。Ashe told the AAAS meeting in Washington, DC, groups of animals often make whatlook like wise decisions, even when most of the members of those groups areignorant of what is going on.正如他在华盛顿AAAS召开的会议上所说的,虽然群居动物中的大部分成员对接下来会发生什么一无所知,但整个群体却常常做出看起来更明智的决定。Coming to that conclusion was not easy.得出这个结论并不容易。Beforelessons can be drawn from critters perched on the lower rungs of theevolutionary ladder, their behaviour must first be understood.因为必须首先理解这些动物的行为,人们才能借鉴,而由于这些动物处于进化阶梯的较低位置。One way to dothis is to tag them with devices that follow them around—motion-capturesensors, radio transmitters or global-positioning-system detectors that can puta precise figure on their movements.要做到这点,首先要用设备为他们打上标签以便跟踪—采用运动传感器、无线电发射装置和全球定位系统的探测器能精确描述它们活动。Unfortunately, it is impossible to tag morethan a few individuals in a herd, flock or swarm.不幸的是,能被标定的个体只是兽群、鸟群或蜂群中的少数。Researchers have thereforetended to extrapolate from these few results by using various computer models.研究者们因此将这些少量数据采用各种电脑模型进行推演。Dr Couzin has done quite a bit of this himself.Couzin士已经完成了一部分工作。Most recently, he has modelledthe behaviour of shoals of fish.最近,他建立了鱼群行为模型。He posited that how they swim will depend oneach individuals competing tendencies to stick close to the others while not actually getting too close to anyparticular other fish.他推测鱼群游动的方式有赖于鱼类个体倾向于截住对方,而又不真的靠近对方的竞争方式。It turns out that by fiddling with these tendencies, avirtual shoal can be made to swirl spontaneously in a circle, just like somereal species do.基于这些倾向就归纳出模型,这些模拟的鱼群可以自行转圈巡游,就像真的一样。That is a start.那只是一个开始。But real shoals do not existto swim in circles.不过真实的鱼群并不只是转圈游动。Their purpose is to help their members eat and avoid beingeaten.他们的目的是帮助成员觅食,同时防止被猎食。At any one time, however, only some individuals know about—and can thusreact to—food and threats.然而,无论什么时候,只有一些个体能对食物和威胁做出反应。Dr Couzin therefore wanted to find out how suchtemporary leaders influence the behaviour of the rest.因此,Couzin士想找出这些临时领导如何影响其余个体行为。He discovered that leadership is extremelyefficient.Couzin士发现这种领导方式及其有效。The larger a shoal is, the smaller is the proportion of it thatneeds to know what is actually going on for it to feed and avoid predationeffectively.鱼群越大,需要知道接下来做什么才能有效觅食和避免危险的“领导”比例就越小。Indeed, having too many leaders with conflicting opinions resultsin confusion.的确,领导越多,矛盾观点造成的混乱就越多。At least, that is true in the model.至少,模型上是这样。He is now testing it inreality.他现在正在真实环境下测试模型。Tracking individual fish in a shoal is hard.跟踪记录鱼群中的个体很困难。Fortunately, advances in pattern-recognition software mean it is no longerimpossible.幸运的是,模式识别软件的进步让这变成可能。Systems designed to follow people are now clever enough not only totrack a person in a crowd, but also to tell in which direction his head isturned.为跟踪人类设计的系统已经足够智能,不仅能跟踪人群中的某个人,而且能显示这个人的头转向何方。Since, from above, the oval shape of a human head is not unlike theoblong body of a fish, this software can, with a little tweaking, followpiscine antics, too.因此,尽管鱼类的身体是长条形,与这个软件可以识别的人类椭圆形头部不同,从原理上说,只要稍作修改使之适应鱼类外形即可。Robo fish机器鱼Dr Couzin has been using a program developedby Colin Twomey, a graduate student at his laboratory, to track individual fishin a tank.Couzin士一直在使用他实验室的研究生Colin Twomey开发的程序来记录水池中鱼类个体的行为。The result is not just a model of shoaling fish, but a precisenumerical representation of their actual movements and fields of vision.这个成果不仅是鱼群的模型,更是鱼群真实行动和视野的精确数值反应。Thatmeans it is possible to investigate whether real-life fishy leaders have thesame effect on a group as their virtual kin.这就意味着深入研究真实鱼群中的领导们与他们的“模拟亲戚”在鱼群中是否有同样影响变成可能。Alas, merely observing a shoal does not makeit clear which individuals lead and which follow.然而,仅仅只观察一个鱼群并不能清楚地区分哪个是领导,哪个是随从。Instead, Dr Couzin has builta biddable robot three-spined stickleback.作为替代,Couzin士制作了一条能发出命令的机器三棘刺鱼。A preliminary study of a shoal often flesh-and-blood sticklebacks shows that they do indeed mingle with therobot and that they follow its leadership cues as predicted.对一个有十条真实刺鱼鱼群的初步研究显示,他们确实接纳了那条机器鱼,并且接受它的领导指示。He is now making arobot predator to see how the shoal reacts to less benign intruders.他现在正在制作一个机器猎食者,用来观察鱼群对凶猛入侵者的反应。If the models are anything to go by, the bestoutcome for the group—in this case, not being eaten—seems to depend on mostmembers being blissfully unaware of the world outside the shoal and simplytaking their cue from others.如果模型一切正常,那么就可得出对群体来说最好的结果—不会被吃掉—这看起来有赖于大多数成员对鱼群外部世界毫无知觉,仅仅只是接受其他鱼指示的“傻鱼傻福”。This phenomenon, Dr Couzin argues, applies to allmanner of organisms, from individual cells in a tissue to voters in the democratic process.Couzin士指出,这个现象符合所有的组织行为,从组织中的个体单位到民主过程中的选民。His team has aly begun probing thequestion of voting patterns.他的研究团队已经开始探索选举模式的问题。But is ignorance really political bliss?然而,愚昧真是政治之福吗?DrCouzins models do not yet capture what happens when the leaders themselvesturn out to be sharks.Couzin士的模型还没有涉及领导们自己变成“鲨鱼”会发生什么。 点击此处下载本期经济学人讲解PDF与音频字幕 /201303/229553杭州市富阳妇女儿童医院收费高吗富春街道妇女医院到底好不好

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