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盐城医院处女膜修复盐城协和医院有男科Leaders: Big economic ideas Breakthroughs and brickbats社论:重大经济思想突破与板砖What economists can learn from the disciplines seminal papers经济学家能够从这一学科的经典论文中所学到的It is easy enough to criticise economists: too superior, too blinkered, too often wrong.批评经济学家是再容易不过了:高高在上,眼界狭隘,错误频频。Paul Samuelson, one of the disciplines great figures, once lampooned stockmarkets for predicting nine out of the last five recessions.保罗·萨缪尔森,作为该学科的伟人之一,曾经为了预测到过去五次衰退中的9次而嘲讽股市。Economists, in contrast, barely ever see downturns coming. They failed to predict the 2007-08 financial crisis.相比之下,经济学家几乎从来都不去注意即将到来的危机。他们未能预测到2007-08年的金融危机。Yet this is not the best test of success.然而,这不是最好的成功验。Much as doctors understand diseases but cannot predict when you will fall ill, economists fundamental mission is not to forecast recessions but to explain how the world works.如同医生通晓百病却不能预测人们会何时得病一样,经济学家的根本任务不是预测衰退,而是解释这个世界是如何运转的。Over the next six weeks we will be running a series of briefs on important economic theories that did just that—from the Nash equilibrium, a cornerstone of game theory, to the Mundell-Fleming trilemma, which lays bare the trade-offs countries face in their management of capital flows, exchange rates and monetary policy;在今后六周中,我们将刊登一系列短文,论述那些恰恰是完成了这一任务的重要经济理论——从作为弈论基石的纳什均衡,到阐述国家在管理资本流动、汇率和货币政策时所面对的取舍的蒙代尔—弗莱明三难困境;from the financial-instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky to the insights of Samuelson and Wolfgang Stolper on trade and wages;从海曼·明斯基的金融不稳定假设到萨缪尔森和沃尔夫冈·斯托尔珀关于贸易和工资的洞见;from John Maynard Keyness thinking on the fiscal multiplier to George Akerlofs work on information asymmetry, the topic of this weeks article.从约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯对财政乘数的思考到乔治·阿克洛夫关于信息不对称的研究,这是本周文章的标题。These breakthroughs are adverts not just for the value of economics, but also for three other things: theory, maths and outsiders.这些突破不仅是对经济学价值的弘扬光大,也是对理论、数学和圈外人等其余三者的广而考之。More than ever, economics today is an empirical discipline.如今,经济学比以往任何时候都是一门实学科。Thanks to the power of big data, economists can track consumer behaviour in real time or know almost precisely how much a good teacher is worth to the lifetime income of children.由于大数据的力量,经济学家能够实时追踪消费者行为,近乎准确地知道一位好老师对于孩子终身收入的具体价值。But theory remains vital.但是,理论仍然非常重要。Many policy failures might have been avoided if theoretical insights had been properly applied.要是理论洞见得以正确地应用,许多政策失败本来是可以避免的。The trilemma was outlined in the 1960s, and the fiscal multiplier dates back to the 1930s; both illuminate the current struggles of the euro zone and the sometimes self-defeating pursuit of austerity.三难困境在上世纪60年代就已经有了轮廓,财政乘数也可以追溯至上世纪30年代;两者阐明了欧元区当前的困境以及时常是自欺欺人的紧缩追求。The Nash equilibrium describes an outcome in which everyone is doing as well as they can given the strategies of others; it explains how countries compete with each other to cut tax rates in order to lure global capital.纳什均衡描述的是一种参与其中的每一个人在得知其他人策略的情况下能做而且正在做的事情的结果;它解释了国家是如何为了吸引全球资本而竞相降低税率。Nor is the body of economic theory complete.经济理论本身也不完整。Big gaps remain in the understanding of financial markets, for example, and on how best to regulate tech platforms like Facebook.例如,在对金融市场的理解方面,在如何最好地监管像脸书这样的科技平台方面,仍旧存在着巨大的差距。The shortfalls are particularly glaring when it comes to modern macroeconomics.这些缺陷在当代宏观经济学中尤其明显。From “secular stagnation” to climate change, the discipline needs big thinkers as well as big data.从“长期停滞”到气候变化,这门学科既需要大数据也需要大思想家。It also needs mathematics.它还需要数学。Paul Romer, who is heading to the World Bank as its chief economist, has railed against “mathiness”, the habit of using algebra to disguise ideological positions.即将出任世界首席经济学家的保罗·罗默猛烈抨击了“泛数学化”(mathiness)——即使用代数来掩盖意识形态立场的习惯。Economic papers are far too formulaic; models should be a means, not an end. But the symbols do matter.经济学论文千篇一律公式化;模型应当是一种手段,不是一个目的。但是,这些符号的确至关重要。The job of economists is to impose mathematical rigour on intuitions about markets, economies and people.经济学家的工作就是用数学的严谨来影响关于市场、经济和民众的直觉。Maths was needed to formalise most of the ideas in our briefs.在我们这个系列中,数学之所以有需要是为了让大多数思想规范化。In economics, as in other fields, a fresh eye can also make a big difference.如同在其他领域一样,在经济学中,新人也能够带来翻天覆地的变化。John Nash was only 21 when he set out the concept that became known as the Nash equilibrium;纳什在提出闻名遐迩的纳什均衡概念时年仅21岁;Mr Akerlof had not long completed his PhD when he wrote “The Market for Lemons”, the paper that made his name.阿克洛夫在撰写让他成名的《柠檬市场》时刚修完了士学位不久。New ideas often meet resistance.新思想经常碰壁。Mr Akerlofs paper was rejected by several journals, one on the ground that if it was correct, “economics would be different”.阿克洛夫的论文曾被多家期刊拒绝,其中一家的理由是:如果论文的思想是正确的,“经济学会截然不同”为理由的。Recognition came slowly for many of our theories: Minsky stayed in relative obscurity until his death, gaining superstar status only once the financial crisis hit.对于许多理论来说,承认是慢慢地到来的:明斯基在去世前一直相对默默无闻;只有在金融危机袭来时才获得明星地位。Economists still tend to look down on outsiders.经济学家仍然倾向于小看圈外人。Behavioural economics has broken down one silo by incorporating insights from psychology.行为经济学已经用吸收心理学这一真知灼见的行为打破了一座堡垒。More need to disappear: like anthropologists, economists should think more about how individuals decision-making relates to social mores;更多的堡垒需要消失:如同人类学家一样,经济学家应当更多地去思考个人的决定如何与社会习俗相关连;like physicists, they should study instability instead of assuming that economies naturally self-correct.如同物理学家一样,他们应当研究不稳定而不是假设经济体自然地自我纠错。This could make the maths trickier still.这或许会让数学更加难以应付。But not as hard as getting the profession to eschew its natural insularity.但是,再难也没有让这个职业科避开其自然的偏狭那样难。译文属译生译世 /201611/476032盐城人流与引产的区别 网罗天下新鲜、好玩、有趣、时尚的英语表达,尽在独家专栏节目;E聊吧;。本期节目的topic:掌管、作主并发号施令Call,个词最普通的意思是呼唤。这个习惯用语起源于五十多年前,根据专家的推测call the shots最早出现在二次世界大战期间部队的打靶场,成千上万的新兵在那里接受射击训练。他们对着五十米外或者更远处的靶子开火,当新兵练习射击的时候。另外有一名士兵负责用望远镜观察靶子,然后告诉打的新兵他击中了目标的什么部位,以便指导新兵改进技能。这就是call the shots当年的出典。好,我们通过下面的例子来试着琢磨call the shot这个习惯用语如今在实际应用中是什么意思吧。说话的人要告诉我们:当他公司的经理得病必须住院几星期的时候,公司在人事方面作出了什么安排。例句:When our boss, Ms. Philips, had to go to the hospital she asked Joe Greene to take over and call the shots. So hes making all of the business decisions, running the company and supervising all the rest of us in our daily work.他们的领导Philips女士在去住院时要求Joe Greene接管业务,也就是说Joe要作出一切业务决策,经营公司并且指导所有其他人员的日常工作。可见这里call the shots作为习惯用语就是掌管、作主并发号施令的意思。有时我们也说call the shot,shot不带s,作单数。这时它的意思是作出一个决定,或者在某一件事情上作主。例如有对夫妇曾经为了去哪儿度假发生争执,后来妻子还是顺从了丈夫的意思,于是那位先生这样说:例句:For once I called the shot and we went to New York instead of Florida, where she thought we ought to go.他说:这一次是我说了算,我们去了纽约。而没去她向往的佛罗里达。Called the shot这个习惯用语意思是在某一件事上作了主。 /201208/193749关键词:sweep something under the carpe 逃避或者隐瞒问题,掩盖事实短语释义:今天的图片上有这样一句话:Were going to need a bigger rug!我们需要一块更大的地毯。Rug是“小地毯”的意思,在英文中单词carpet也表示“地毯”。图片中的男士为什么说“需要一块更大的地毯”呢?因为他们夫妇俩要sweep something under the carpet,把一些东西扫到地毯下面去,显然一块小地毯rug是不够的,所以需要更大一点的地毯。听到这里大家可能会觉得很奇怪,地毯放在地下好好的,很整洁,把东西扫到底下难道不会很难看么?那么想问大家,有没有在电视剧中看到一些人把秘密的信件、纸条等藏到地毯下呢?习语to sweep something under the carpet其实就是指逃避或者想隐瞒什么问题,掩盖事实。情景领悟:1. Lets sweep the whole unfortunate incident under the carpet and never refer to it again. 让我们完全忘却那件不幸的事件,并且永远不再谈起它。(Unfortunate: 不幸的。Incident: 事件。Refer to: 涉及,提起。想要保持开心的秘诀之一就是忘掉不好的事情而留下美好的回忆。)2.Unpleasant episodes in her early career were swept under the carpet. 她早年生涯中一些令人不快的事情被掩盖起来了。(Episode: 插曲,情节。Career: 生涯;职业。有些明星出道之前可能有很多不光的事情,而作为公众形象,他们必须把那些“黑历史”掩盖起来。)本节目属 /201404/287968盐城/哪里治疗做包皮手术好

盐城/市医院怎样治疗尖锐湿疣东台市中医院男科 学习一门语言,日常交际很重要,向别人表示一些赞美、感激以及礼尚往来都能促进两人之间的关系更近一步,下面我们来学习日常交际中你可能会用到的三句话,做好准备了吗?1. 中国人为了表示热情友好,总是爱说一些关心体贴的话。比如看到别人累了,提醒人家注意休息会说:You must be tired. Have a good rest. 但是如果你想和老外套近乎,就千万别来这一套!因为听到这类的话,人家会以为自己看上去很差劲,身体出了问题。其实老外最喜欢听人家夸自己身体强健气色好,衣着打扮呢很有品位。所以,多在这些方面说赞美的话,后面才能有的聊。比如说很简单的:Youre looking great! 你看起来棒极了!称赞人家的衣可以说:What a wonderful dress youre wearing!你今天的这条裙子看上去真棒!2. 去朋友家串门,中国人总是喜欢带些礼物,在这一点上,老外也一样。不同的是中国人为了讨吉利,喜欢送礼送双数,而西方人做客带一瓶酒或者一盒巧克力就够了。其实送礼这件事就是个心意,你只需大大方方表达心意就好了。I got you something I hope you like it. 我给你带了点东西,希望你喜欢。Heres a little gift for you. Enjoy! 这个小礼物是给你的。好好享用吧!3. 中国有句话讲“大恩不言谢”,可是遇到小事,尤其是和熟人之间,说“谢谢”又显得格外生分。所以不管是大事小情,“谢谢”这个词儿就被理所当然地省略掉了。这一点让“谢”不离口的老外们实在不能忍,因为他们早已习惯成自然,就算是对家人说声“谢谢”也是家常便饭。所以,和老外在一起,千万要记得在适当的时候说“Thank you”。当然,你还可以用其他英文表达来满足他们的期待。 Thanks a million. I really appreciate it. 万分感谢,真是帮了我大忙啦!如果想说得简单点,可以直接说:Thanks for the help. I owe you one.多谢帮忙,我欠你个人情。今天的三句话你都记住了吗?美图+英语,随时下到手机观看和收听,坚持积累,你一定会有所收获的。今天的节目就到这里,我们下期再见,拜拜!背景音乐:Thank You-蔡依林本节目属 /201407/311337盐城/医院治疗早泄哪家最好

盐城/专治包皮包茎有哪些好医院听力参考文本(文本与音频不全一致,敬请谅解):Reporters from around the world have spent the week checking out the offerings at the North American International Auto Show.Today, suppliers got their turn. The black-tie charity preview is tomorrow night and Saturday morning, the doors at the Cobo Center open to the public.Paul Eisenstein is the publisher of TheDetroitBureau.com and he joined Stateside to talk about the buzz surrounding this years auto show, a major shift in the industry and the latest news about Chrysler getting in trouble with the EPA.;Were in the midst of probably one of the most important transformations that we have seen in the auto industry in decades,; said Eisenstein. ;The transformation from cars to light trucks.;Crossovers, SUVs, pick-ups and vans account for almost two-thirds of the market, which has created a major shift in the industry. This is reflected in the offerings at the Detroit auto show. While there are still some interesting and popular passenger cars, bigger vehicles appear to be the future for automakers.Listen to the full interview above to hear Eisensteins tips of what people need to see at the auto show, his reaction to the latest news about Fiat Chrysler being accused of violating the Clean Air Act by the EPA and how the lines between the auto industry and the technology industry are blurring.201701/488279 the last/final straw; the straw that breaks the camel's back:the last in a series of bad events, etc. that makes it impossible for you to accept a situation any longer 压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草;终于使人不堪忍受的最后一件事(或因素等)I've had a terrible day, and this traffic is the last straw,I can't take any more.我这一天已经够倒霉了,这样的堵车更是雪上加霜,我受不了了.the writing is on the wall:used when you are describing a situation in which there are signs that something is going to have problems or that it is going to be a failure (看出)厄运临头的预兆,不祥之兆 It is amazing that not one of them saw the writing on the wall. 令人吃惊的是他们就没有一个人看出大难临头的预兆.The writing is on the wall for the club unless they can find 000.这家俱乐部就要大难临头了,除非他们能筹到2万美元. /201001/95502盐城/早泄专科医院亭湖区治疗前列腺炎多少钱



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