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乌市眼耳鼻喉专科医院激光祛痘多少钱乌市水磨沟区保妥适多少钱乌鲁木齐隆鼻手术多少费用 Bengt Holmstr#246;m and Oliver Hart, two academics who developed modern ways to think about writing contracts in areas as diverse as car insurance, bonuses for chief executives and the provision of public services, have won the 2016 Nobel Prize for economics.本特#8226;霍姆斯特姆(Bengt Holmstr#246;m,图右)和奥利弗#8226;哈特(Oliver Hart,图左)赢得了2016年诺贝尔经济学奖。他们发展了思考如何写合同的现代化方式,这些合同涉及多个领域,包括汽车保险、首席执行官的奖金,以及公共务的提供。Professor Hart, a Briton based at Harvard University, and Professor Holmstr#246;m, a Finn who teaches at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, share the 5,000 award from the Swedish Riksbank in memory of Alfred Nobel, for their contribution to contract theory in the 1970s and 1980s.哈特教授是在哈佛大学(Harvard University)工作的英国人,霍姆斯特姆教授是在麻省理工学院(MIT)执教的芬兰人。他们两人将分享来自瑞典央行(Swedish Riksbank)的92.5万美元奖金,以表彰他们在20世纪70年代和80年代对契约理论作出的贡献。诺贝尔经济学奖是为了纪念阿尔弗雷德#8226;诺贝尔(Alfred Nobel)而设立的。Their work does not prescribe what a good contract is, since that depends on circumstances, but instead helps parties think clearly about important design issues.他们的研究并没有说明一份好的合同应该是什么样的(因为这要视乎具体情况而定),而是帮助当事人想清楚重要的设计问题。Some contracts are straightforward to write. 有些合同写起来直截了当。But in instances where it is difficult to monitor whether people have stuck to their side of a deal or where it is difficult to specify all future eventualities, the work gives practical advice on how to achieve the best outcome for both sides and how to avoid common pitfalls in contract design.但在很难监测人们是否履行他们的义务,或者很难列举所有未来可能事态的情况下,他们的研究给出了实用建议,阐明如何实现对双方都是最好的结果,以及如何避免常见的合同设计陷阱。The theory has been relevant in understanding the design of performance bonuses, why gig economy companies can enforce rigid contracts and why the US justice department has decided to phase out the use of private contractors in the prison service.契约理论有助于理解绩效奖金的设计,为什么零工经济企业可以采用硬性合同,以及美国司法部为什么决定逐步淘汰在监狱系统使用私营部门的承包商。Many contract design elements were aly widesp before being formalised in contract theory. 许多合同设计要素在被契约理论正式纳入之前就已广泛存在。Car insurance contracts, for example, have for decades avoided providing full cover in the event of accidents, forcing drivers to pay a proportion of the costs from a crash. 例如,汽车保险合同几十年来一直避免完全覆盖事故,而是迫使驾车者为碰撞事故付一定比例的代价。Contract theory formalises the common sense that excess payments help prevent careless driving, which insurance companies cannot perfectly monitor.契约理论正式确立了这种常识:自掏腰包的额外费用有助于阻止粗心驾驶,而后者是保险公司无法完美监测的。Similarly, employers have long offered bonuses as well as fixed payments in an attempt to motivate better performance. 同样,雇主早就会提供固定报酬以外的奖金以激励更好的绩效。But the contribution of Prof Holmstr#246;m was to determine that an optimal contract should link payments to outcomes that reveal the performance of either party to a contract.霍姆斯特姆教授的贡献是确定一份最优化的合同应该把报酬与结果(揭示任何一方履行合同的表现)联系起来。Even today, many chief executives are rewarded for the strong performance of their company’s share price, despite wide acknowledgment that this can sometimes be the result of their luck in being in post at a time of rising financial markets. 即使在当今,许多首席执行官们也会因为公司股价表现强劲而获得奖励,尽管人们广泛承认,有时这可能只是由于他们的运气较好,在金融市场上涨期间执掌公司。Prof Holmstr#246;m’s work showed it was much better for shareholders to reward managers based on the relative performance of their company compared with others.霍姆斯特罗姆教授的研究显示,对股东来说更好的做法是根据其公司相比业内同行的相对表现来奖励管理人员。The more difficult it is to observe the effect of an individual’s actions, the less remuneration should be performance-based, according to Prof Holmstr#246;m’s findings. 霍姆斯特姆教授的研究发现,越难观察一个人行动的效果,与绩效挂钩的薪酬比例就应该越低。Where there is significant uncertainty, it is better to pay fixed salaries, modern contract theory now states. 现代契约理论认为,若存在显著不确定性,最好付固定薪酬。But for Uber drivers or couriers, the theory demonstrates why their pay can be based so heavily on performance. 但是,对于优步(Uber)司机或快递员,该理论展示了为什么他们的报酬可以如此大幅度取决于绩效。With the technology underpinning the gig economy enabling employers in the sector to have almost complete information about their workers, those companies can perform more strongly by using heavily performance-based remuneration.撑零工经济的技术使雇主能够几乎完全掌握有关工人的信息,这些企业通过采用在很大程度上基于绩效的薪酬,就可以实现更为强劲的业绩。However, while Uber drivers’ performance might be easy to monitor, this is trickier in occupations where output is more difficult to measure, where people work in teams and where certain incentives may lead to distorted outcomes.然而,尽管优步司机的绩效也许容易监测,但在某些职业(产出更难衡量、人们在团队中工作、某些激励可能导致扭曲结果),要做到这一点就比较棘手。Prof Hart’s contribution to contract theory since the mid 1980s has revolved around how best to write contracts that cover eventualities that cannot be precisely specified in advance. 哈特教授自20世纪80年代中期以来对契约理论作出的贡献,围绕着如何写合同最好,以覆盖不能预先精确列举的各种可能事态。His insight was that where it was futile to try to specify what should happen, it was important to write down who had the right to decide when both parties to a contract could not agree.他的高见是,在试图罗列未来情形徒劳无益的情况下,重要的是写明若合同双方意见不同,哪一方将有权做出决定。This is most useful in financial contracts, such as providing finance to entrepreneurs. 这在财务契约中(比如为创业家提供资金)最为有用。Rather than paying people as employees to innovate, Mr Hart found it was best to allow them to take control as entrepreneurs so they gained most of the profits of their efforts. 哈特教授发现,与其把人才当作雇员,付工资让他们创新,不如让他们成为拥有控制权的创业家,获益于自己努力所取得的大部分利润。The outcome is that entrepreneurs get to control their companies if performance is good but progressively lose control as it worsens.结果是,如果绩效良好,创业家能控制自己的企业,而如果绩效恶化,他们将逐渐失去控制。Some contracts are particularly difficult to specify, such as in the provision of public services. 有些合同特别难写,比如提供公共务的合同。Public providers run by a manager on a fixed salary often have little incentive to improve efficiency or service quality, while private providers often make efforts to cut costs at the expense of quality.公共部门提供商由一名拿固定工资的管理人执掌,往往毫无提高效率或务质量的动力,而私营部门提供商往往以牺牲质量为代价削减成本。For many years the latter was thought to be a better solution than the former, but Prof Hart’s work highlighted difficulties with contracts relating to prison services. 多年来,私营部门提供商被认为是比公共部门提供商更好的解决方案,但哈特教授的研究突显了监狱务合同的困难。His work was instrumental in the US decision to shift prison provision back into the public sector after his findings on such incomplete contracts demonstrated the efficiency incentive was too strong and that jail conditions had as a result deteriorated unacceptably.他对此类不完全合同的研究发现,效率激励太强大了,其结果是监狱条件出现了不可接受的恶化。这些发现对美国政府决定把监狱务转回公共部门起到了重要作用。 /201610/470807新疆中医学院附属医院割双眼皮手术多少钱

乌鲁木齐天山区脱小腿毛多少钱The growth rate of China’s migrant workforce has fallen to levels not seen since the depths of the global financial crisis.中国农民工总量增速已降至本次金融危机最严重时期以来最低水平。The total number of migrant workers rose 1.3 per cent in 2015 to 277.8m, the slowest rate since 2009 according to data available from the National Bureau of Statistics.据中国国家统计局公布的数据,2015年农民工总人数上升1.3%,至2.778亿人。这是2009年以来的最低增速。In 2014 the number of migrant workers had increased 1.9 per cent of 2014, on par with growth in 2009. But growth in China’s mobile workforce jumped to 5.4 per cent year-on-year in 2010, thanks in part to a major stimulus package that revved up economic activity through infrastructure projects and real estate development – and which has left a fraught legacy of overcapacity as the country attempts to transition toward a more services-oriented economy.2014年农民工总数增加了1.9%,与2009年增幅相当。但2010年农民工总数同比激增5.4%,部分原因是一项重大刺激计划,该计划通过基础设施项目和房地产开发推动经济活动。但随着中国试图转型成更以务业为导向的经济,该计划也留下了产能过剩这个令人担忧的遗产。Now China’s “migrant miracle” – in which cheap, mobile labour subsidized an export-driven manufacturing sector – is drawing to a close.中国的廉价流动劳动力曾对出口驱动型制造业有利好效应,但如今,这一“农民工奇迹”正接近尾声。Adding to downward pressure on the growth rate is a demographic downshift: the share of migrant workers above age 30 rose to 67.1 per cent last year, up from 57.6 per cent in 2010, according to the latest figures from the statistics bureau.同时,人口增速放慢也加大了农民工增速的下行压力。根据中国国家统计局最新数据,30岁以上农民比例去年攀升至67.1%,2010年为57.6%, /201605/441110五家渠曼托丰胸的价格 Mongolia’s new government has revealed a budget deficit equivalent to nearly one-fifth of economic output, underlining the dire financial conditions that have sent the currency tumbling.蒙古国新政府披露称,该国财政预算缺口已接近经济产出的五分之一。这凸显出该国财政状况是多么的糟糕,该国货币已因此大幅贬值。Even after stringent cost-cutting measures outlined by the Mongolian People’s party, which won a landslide victory in last month’s elections, 蒙古人民党(Mongolian People’s party)在上月的选举中获得压倒性胜利。the country faces a gap between its revenues of MNT5.34tn (.67bn) and MNT9.7tn (.87bn) expenditure — a shortfall equivalent to 18 per cent of gross domestic product, well above the 4 per cent statutory limit.尽管该党列出了严格的削减成本措施,但蒙古国5.34万亿图格里克(合26.7亿美元)的财政收入与9.7万亿图格里克(合48.7亿美元)的财政出之间仍存在缺口——这一赤字相当于该国国内生产总值(GDP)的18%,远高于4%的法定上限。Mongolia, with a population of 3m and GDP of some bn, is heavily dependent on mining and commodities exports, mostly to China. 蒙古国人口为300万,GDP约为120亿美元,高度依赖采矿业和大宗商品出口(主要出口对象是中国)。A surge of mining investment helped it repay previous IMF loans early, but the more recent downturn in copper and coal prices has dealt a heavy blow to the economy.矿业投资猛增帮助蒙古国提前偿还了之前国际货币基金组织(IMF)给该国的贷款,但最近的铜价和煤价下行对该国经济造成了沉重打击。The country also faces hefty debt repayments beginning in March, when a 0m bond issued by the Development Bank of Mongolia comes due. It must repay .7bn-.8bn over the next two years, including a swap agreement with China’s central bank.从明年3月开始,蒙古国还面临着沉重的偿债压力,届时蒙古开发(Development Bank of Mongolia)发行的一笔5.8亿美元的债券将会到期。该行在未来两年必须偿还17亿至18亿美元,其中包括与中国央行之间货币互换协议要求的还款金额。“Our priority is to bring discipline and order to our finances, to make sure the public gets the full picture and understands the reasons for our actions,” said Tsend Munkh-Orgil, foreign minister.“我们的当务之急是给我国的财政带来纪律和秩序,确保公众了解全部情况、理解我们为什么采取这些行动,”蒙古国外长蒙赫奥尔吉勒(Tsend Munkh-Orgil)说。The budget includes cuts in civil service salaries, higher taxes and a later retirement age. 这份预算案包括下调公务员工资、加税和延长退休年龄。Other social payments from funds set up during the height of the mining boom have run dry, including subsidies for students and the popular universal “child money” of MNT20,000 () per month for every family.蒙古国在矿业发展风头最劲时建立了一些基金,用于满足其他社会性出。如今,这些出已经枯竭,其中包括学生补贴、以及颇受欢迎的每个孩子每月2万图格里克(合9美元)的全民“儿童补助”。“While we expected increased fiscal pressure, we did not expect the budget situation to be as critical as recently reported,” said Yolanda Fernandez, representative for the Asian Development Bank. “The government is going to face two challenging years.”“尽管我们预料到财政压力会加大,但我们没预料到预算状况会像近期报道的那样生死攸关,”亚洲开发(ADB)驻蒙代表冯幽兰(Yolanda Fernandez)表示,“(蒙古国)政府将迎来颇具挑战性的两年。”The Mongolian People’s party government has not formally requested assistance from international donors, but observers expect that it will after the budget is approved and the new government draws up a plan later this year.蒙古人民党政府尚未正式向国际捐助机构求援,但观察人士预计,当预算案获批、新政府在今年晚些时候拟定一份方案后,人民党政府就会正式求援。 /201608/463608北屯点痣多少钱

新疆生产建设兵团总医院隆胸多少钱As Disney’s Magic Kingdom prepares to enter the Middle Kingdom, China’s richest man has geared up to do battle with Mickey Mouse for the hearts of the country’s children — and their parents’ wallets.就在迪士尼(Disney)的“神奇王国”(Magic Kingdom)准备进军“中央王国”之际,中国首富磨拳擦掌,要与“米老鼠”(Mickey Mouse)争夺中国童心——以及儿童父母的钱包。Wang Jianlin, billionaire real estate tycoon and chairman of the property and entertainment conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group, is betting his bn investment in a new children’s theme park will draw a newly flush middle class through its gates in big numbers.主营地产与的大连万达集团(Dalian Wanda Group)董事长、亿万富翁房地产大亨王健林,正押注其投资30亿美元新建的一个儿童主题乐园将吸引大批中国中产阶层新富。Wanda City, a leisure resort that opened late last month in Nanchang, southern China, is banking on its ability to satisfy local tastes. It opened to a ceremony of dancing lions and obligatory speeches from local party chiefs. Attractions include China’s tallest and longest roller coasters, and a mall designed to evoke a Chinese tea set.上月底在中国南方城市南昌开业的休闲胜地万达城(Wanda City),寄望于自己有能力满足本土品味。开园仪式上进行了舞狮表演,而且依惯例由当地党政领导发表讲话。园中最吸引人的游乐设施包括中国最高、最长的过山车,以及一处造型类似中式茶壶的购物中心。Disney, the world’s largest entertainment company, meanwhile, is also betting on the new thirst in China for leisure activities. The US company’s first Disneyland resort in mainland China opens in Shanghai on June 16 — a Rmb55bn (bn) joint venture with three government owned companies.与此同时,全球最大公司迪士尼也在押注中国民众在休闲活动方面的新需求。迪士尼在中国内地的首座迪士尼乐园(Disneyland)将于6月16在上海开业——该项目由迪士尼与三家中国国企联合投资550亿元人民币(合80亿美元)兴建。The US media conglomerate is banking on its international movie hits to attract impressionable youngsters and obliging parents. Its new park features attractions based on Pirates of the Caribbean and superhero pictures such as Iron Man and Avengers Assemble.这家美国传媒集团寄望于其在全球热映的大片来吸引易受感染的年轻人以及愿意顺从他们的父母。这座新建乐园的特色在于,许多游乐设施依据《加勒比海盗》(Pirates of the Caribbean)以及超级英雄大片如《钢铁侠》(Iron Man)和《复仇者联盟》(Avengers Assemble)的故事情节而建。The US company is deploying its globally recognised characters, including Elsa and Anna from the 2013 hit Frozen, to draw visitors from across China, where per capita income has grown 20-fold in a generation.迪士尼正利用其全球知名的动漫人物——包括2013年热映大片《冰雪奇缘》(Frozen)中的艾莎(Elsa)与安娜(Anna)——吸引中国各地的游客。中国的人均收入在一代人时间里增长了20倍。But Mr Wang, with a fortune estimated by Forbes at bn, says he does not fear Disney’s big advantage in name recognition and icons. His group plans to create a plethora of cheaper venues across the country to woo white-collar workers looking for a quick weekend day out rather than a blowout holiday.但王健林表示,并不害怕迪士尼在知名度以及拥有众多偶像方面的巨大优势。万达集团计划在中国各地新建大量更廉价的休闲乐园,吸引那些希望利用周末“一日游”(而不是耗资巨大的正式度假)的白领阶层。据《福布斯》(Forbes)杂志估计,王健林身价为340亿美元。“The days of Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck creating a frenzy are over,” he told China Central Television last month. “One tiger is no match for a pack of wolves — Shanghai has one Disney, while Wanda, across the nation, will open 15 to 20 Wanda Cities.”“现在已经不是看米老鼠、唐老鸭(Donald Duck)为之疯狂的年代了,”他上月在中国中央电视台(CCTV)上表示,“好虎架不住群狼——上海只有一个迪士尼,而万达则在全国其他地方开了15到20个乐园项目。”Tiger Hou, a partner at Ent Group, the Chinese entertainment consulting firm, says Disney has “a real edge” against local theme parks because of their famous characters. “Disney parks are special enough for Chinese consumers to be willing to pay a premium price to see their and their children’s favourite characters. Local theme parks can provide only a lesser experience, and many are homogeneous,” he adds中国咨询公司艺恩网(Ent Group)合伙人侯涛(Tiger Hou)表示,因为拥有知名动漫人物,迪士尼相对中国本土主题公园拥有“真正优势”。他补充说:“对于愿意花钱看自己和孩子最喜爱的动漫人物的中国消费者,迪士尼乐园足够特别。本土主题公园提供的体验比较逊色,许多乐园都大同小异。”Historically, theme-park chains have been the reserve of companies with the deep coffers needed to pour billions into upkeep of existing attractions, as well as regularly opening new rides to draw customers back year after year.从历史上看,连锁主题公园一直是财力雄厚企业的专属,因为它们需要投入巨额资金以维护现有游乐设施,还要年复一年地经常开放新的游乐设施以吸引回头客。In the US, Disney and Comcast, the US cable company which owns the Universal chain of theme parks, are among the big operators. But Disney has been raising overall ticket prices above the rate of inflation for several years running, a pattern that could become unsustainable if it pushes the parks out of the reach of middle-class parents. The company is considering offering cheaper “off peak” prices at slower times of the year to increase overall attendance and counteract seasonal crowding.在美国,迪士尼与有线电视运营商康卡斯特(Comcast)都是大型主题公园运营商。康卡斯特旗下拥有环球(Universal)连锁主题公园。但迪士尼整体票价涨幅已连续数年高于通胀率,如果票价超出中产阶层父母的承受范围的话,这一模式将难以为继。迪士尼正考虑在每年的淡季提供较便宜的“非高峰期”票价,以增加入园总人数,并缓解季节性拥挤。In China, Disney’s ticket prices are double those of Mr Wang’s Wanda Park: a weekend day admission is a steep Rmb499 compared with Rmb248 for Wanda Park.在中国,迪士尼门票价格是万达乐园的两倍:迪士尼周末单日门票售价高达499元人民币,而万达乐园只要248元人民币。As well as being more affordable, Mr Wang’s parks rely on their ability to adapt to the local culture and climate — although a recent walk through a Wanda City park showed revellers taking photos next to storm trooper characters from the Star Wars movies.除了门票更便宜,王健林的乐园寄望于自己有能力适应当地文化和气候——虽然当记者最近走过万达城乐园时,看到的是游客挨着《星球大战》(Star Wars)系列电影中的帝国风暴兵(stormtrooper)造型合影。Disney said it would take legal action after a woman in a Snow White costume was spotted in the Wanda mall recently.针对近期一位身穿白雪公主(Snow White)饰的女性现身万达购物中心的情况,迪士尼表示将采取法律行动。But Wanda City is also seeking to create a uniquely Chinese experience. Revellers can fly over Jiangxi province in a flight simulator in the Wanda mall, or dragon-boat across the water-park, or follow a path through a 10-metre high bamboo forest to reach China’s longest rollercoaster, made of wood.但万达城也在设法创造独特的中式体验。游客可以在购物中心乘坐飞行模拟器飞越江西省,乘坐龙舟穿越水上公园,或者穿过10米高的竹林去乘坐中国最长的木制过山车。On a recent visit, resort attendants, always in groups of threes, beamed around every corner, staffing cafés and buffet restaurants.在最近的一次参观中,记者看到主题公园三人一组的工作人员笑容满面地站在各个角落,在咖啡馆和自助餐厅提供务。“Wanda reflects my principles — to bring happiness to families across China,” says a young tour guide, Zou Jiali, with a steady smile.“万达反映了我的原则——给全国各地的家庭带来欢乐,”一直保持微笑的年轻导游邹佳丽(音)说。Analysts say the competition between the two entertainment heavyweights should be positive for both companies if it energises the country’s cash-starved theme park industry. Up to now, Chinese consumers have been reluctant to splash out on attractions. They spend a mere per person annually on theme parks,#8202;compared#8202;with#8202;#8202;in#8202;the#8202;US,#8202;says Richard Huang, who analyses China’s entertainment industry for Nomura investment bank in Hong Kong.分析人士表示,这两家巨头间的竞争对双方应该都有好处——如果这种竞争为中国缺少资金的主题公园产业注入活力。迄今中国消费者还不愿在游乐设施上大把花钱。投资野村券(Nomura)驻香港的中国产业分析师Richard Huang表示,中国每年在主题公园上的人均出仅为3美元,而美国是58美元。Both Disney and Wanda should also benefit from the government’s plans to create more national holidays and high-speed rail lines, says Reto Wilhelm, general manager for the Chinese arm of the Thomas Cook tourism group.Thomas Cook旅游集团中国公司总经理雷托#8226;威廉(Reto Wilhelm)表示,迪士尼和万达还将受益于中国政府设定更多国定假日以及修建更多高铁的计划。Liu Zhaohui, who does consulting for theme parks in China, estimates that 70 per cent of China’s theme parks lose money, mainly due to poor management. “Disney’s advantage is that it would bring proper management to the sector,” he says.为中国主题公园提供咨询的刘朝辉(音)估计,70%的中国主题公园亏损,主要原因是管理不善。他表示:“迪士尼的好处在于它将为该行业带来像样的管理。”“It’s going to be a whole different landscape when you have quality theme parks, because the supply will create the demand,” says Mr Huang.Richard Huang表示:“当中国拥有高品质主题公园时,这一产业将呈现出一番完全不同的景象,因为供给将创造需求。”He noted that when Disney opened a Hong Kong theme park, the nearby attraction Ocean Park feared losing customers but in fact gained attendance.他指出,当迪士尼在香港开设主题公园时,邻近的海洋公园(Ocean Park)曾担心出现游客流失,但实际结果是到海洋公园的游客增加了。 /201606/448727 新疆中医学院附属医院光子嫩肤手术多少钱哈密激光点痣多少钱

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