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来源:知道新闻    发布时间:2020年02月25日 14:11:59    编辑:admin         

Nepals devastating earthquake was the disaster experts knew was coming.尼泊尔遭遇的此次毁灭性地震是在地震专家预料之中。Just a week ago, about 50 earthquake and social scientists from around the world came to Kathmandu, Nepal, to figure out how to get this poor, congested, overdeveloped, shoddily built area to prepare better for the big one, a repeat of the 1934 temblor that leveled this city. They knew they were racing the clock, but they didnt know when what they feared would strike.仅在一周前,来自世界各地的约五十名地震学家和社会学家来到尼泊尔首都加德满都讨论,如934年那场将这座城市夷为平地的大地震再次上演,如何才能让这个贫穷、拥挤、过度开发且建筑粗制滥造的地区更妥善地做好准备。专家们知道自己在和时间赛跑,但他们不知道令人担忧的情况何时会出现;It was sort of a nightmare waiting to happen,; said seismologist James Jackson, head of the earth sciences department at the University of Cambridge in England. ;Physically and geologically what happened is exactly what we thought would happen.;“有点像迟早会成真的噩梦,”英国剑桥大学地球科学系主任、地震学家詹姆斯#8226;杰克逊(James Jackson)说,“从物理学和地质学的角度来说,发生的事情完全在我们的预料之中。”But he didnt expect the massive quake that struck Saturday to happen so soon. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake killed more than 1,900 and counting and caused widesp destruction.但杰克逊没有料到这场大地震会来得如此之快,在周六降临。这场里.8级地震已经造成900人死亡(死亡人数仍在上升)以及大面积的破坏;I was walking through that very area where that earthquake was and I thought at the very time that the area was heading for trouble,; said Jackson, lead scientist for Earthquakes Without Frontiers, a group that tries to make Asia more able to bounce back from these disasters and was having the meeting.“地震无国界”是一个帮助亚洲从灾难中重新振作的团体,它组织召开了这次专家会议。其主席科学家杰克逊说:“我曾到过地震发生的地方,那时我就在想那儿可能会有灾难发生。”A Kathmandu earthquake has long been feared, not just because of the natural seismic fault, but because of the local, more human conditions that make it worse.人们早就担心加德满都会遭遇大地震,不仅是因为它处于地震断层,还因为更多人为的因素会导致灾难更严重。The same size shaking can have bigger effects on different parts of the globe because of building construction and population and thats something the U.S. Geological Survey calculates ahead of time. So the same level of severe shaking would cause 10 to 30 people to die per million residents in California, but 1,000 maybe more in Nepal, and up to 10,000 in parts of Pakistan, India, Iran and China, said USGS seismologist David Wald.同样面积的震动会因为房屋建筑和人口稠密给全球的一些地方带来更大的影响。这一点是美国地质勘探局很早之前计算出来的。因此,勘探局的地震学家大卫·瓦尔德(David Wald)说,同样程度的强震,如果发生在加利福尼亚,每一百万人会0-30人丧生,而在尼泊尔,可能导致1000人遇难,在巴基斯坦、印度、伊朗和中国的一些地方,可能会造成多达一万人死亡。While the trigger of the disaster is natural an earthquake ;the consequences are very much man-made,; Jackson said. Except for landslides, which in this case are a serious problem, ;its buildings that kill people not earthquakes,; Jackson said. If you lived in a flat desert with no water, an earthquake wouldnt harm you, but then few people want to live there.尽管地震发生的原因是自然原因,“但它造成的后果大多是人为的,”杰克逊说。除了山体滑坡,在这种情况下,这会是一个很严重的问题。“地震中杀死人的是建筑,而不是地震本身,”他说。如果你住在平坦干旱的荒漠里,那地震根本就不会对你造成任何伤害,但是极少数人愿意住在那里;The real problem in Asia is how people have concentrated in dangerous places,; Jackson said.杰克逊说:“亚洲国家面临的真正问题是在一些危险区域,人口十分密集。”Kathmandu was warned, first by the Earth itself: this is the fifth significant quake there in the last 205 years, including the massive 1934 one.这是地球第一次对加德满都发出警告:此次地震是205年以来的第五场大地震,包934年的那场;They knew they had a problem but it was so large they didnt where to start, how to start,; said Hari Kumar, southeast Asia regional coordinator for GeoHazards International, a group that works on worldwide quake risks. Kumar, Jackson and Wald said Nepal was making progress on reducing its vulnerability to earthquakes, but not quickly or big enough.国家自然灾害防制组织(一个致力于研究世界地震风险的组织)东南亚地区事务协调员哈里·库马尔(Hari Kumar)说:“他们知道自己的问题,但正因为问题太大,他们不知从何着手,如何着手。”库马尔、杰克逊和瓦尔德说,尼泊尔有在努力提高自身对地震的抵抗力,但效果不太明显,还需要些日子。Kumars group on April 12 updated a late 1990s report summarizing the Kathmandu Valley risks.库马尔小组在42日更新了一0世纪90年代晚期的报告,总结了加德满都河谷的地质灾害风险;With an annual population growth rate of 6.5 percent and one of the highest urban densities in the world, the 1.5 million people living in the Kathmandu Valley were clearly facing a serious and growing earthquake risk,; the report said, laying out ;the problem; the valley faces. ;It was also clear that the next large earthquake to strike near the Valley would cause significantly greater loss of life, structural damage, and economic hardship than past earthquakes had inflicted.;报告称:“加德满都河谷每年人口增长率.5%,是世界上城市密度最高的地区之一。在这里居住50万人明显面临着严重且日益增加的地震风险。”报告将河谷面临的“问题”一一展开,“很明显,和以往的地震带来的灾害相比,下一次袭击河谷附近的大地震会造成更重大的伤亡损失,建筑破坏和经济困境。”And for years there were no building codes and rampant development so homes and other structures could be built without any regards to earthquakes, the report said. There are now building codes, but that doesnt help the older structures, and the codes arent overly strong, Kumar said.报告称,多年来,这里没有建筑规范,但开发得很快,所以住宅和其他建筑在建造时没有任何防震考虑。库马尔说,如今有了建筑规范,但这对老建筑并没有什么影响,并且规范实施力度也不大。Its actually even made worse because of local inheritance laws that require property be split equally among all sons, Jackson said. So that means buildings are split vertically among brothers making very thin rickety homes that need more space so people add insecure living space on additional floors, he said.杰克逊说,实际上,当地的继承法使问题雪上加霜。法律要求房产应该平分给所有的儿子。他补充道,这就意味着建筑会在兄弟间平分,导致房屋结构不稳,如果需要更多空间的话,人们就会私自加建楼层;The construction is appalling in Kathmandu,; Jackson said.杰克逊说:“加德满都的建筑令人胆战心惊。”Poverty and pollution make the problem worse, Jackson said. Thats because people dont spend time worrying about some future earthquake because they have more pressing problems.杰克逊说,贫穷和污染使问题更恶化。正因为人们面临着更紧迫的问题,所以没时间担忧未来可能发生的地震;If you live in the Kathmandu Valley you have other priorities, daily threats and daily nasty things happen to you in terms of air quality, water quality, pollution, traffic and just poverty,; Jackson said. ;But it doesnt mean that the earthquakes go away.;“如果你住在加德满都河谷,你会优先考虑其他一些事情,每天会面临威胁以及讨厌的事情,比如空气质量、饮用水质量、污染、交通以及贫困,”杰克逊说,“但这不意味着地震就会消失。”来 /201504/372143。

After 250 South Korean high school students died in the sinking of the Sewol ferry in April, the artist Hong Sung-dam lashed out at a political and business elite he considers responsible for the disaster, doing so in the way he knows best. He painted, pouring his protest onto canvas just as he did during the country’s long years of military dictatorship.今年4月,250名韩国高中生在“世越号”(旧译“岁月号”)渡轮沉船事件中丧生。之后,艺术家洪成潭用他最擅长的方式猛烈抨击他心目中应对此次灾难负责的政治和商业精英。他采用的方式是绘画,就像在韩国漫长的军事独裁时期,他把自己的抗议倾注到画布上那样。He was not imprisoned this time, as he was in the waning years of military-backed rule. But Mr. Hong’s 34 foot by 8 foot canvas, which includes a caricature of President Park Geun-hye, was pulled from South Korea’s best-known international art festival in a type of censorship usually reserved for those accused of supporting communist North Korea.这一次他没像在军事统治末期那样被囚禁,但是他那些34英尺宀?英尺高的画作(包括一幅讽刺总统朴槿惠的漫画)从韩国最著名的国际艺术展上撤掉了,这种审查通常只针对那些被认为持共产主义朝鲜的人。“This is a ridiculous insult to an artist,Mr. Hong said of the treatment of the painting, in which Ms. Park is depicted as a puppet controlled by her late father, who led the country for nearly two decades after engineering a coup. “What they did was proof of what I tried to say in the painting. Under Park Geun-hye, the country is reverting to the old practices of her father’s era, repressing freedom of expression.”“这是对艺术家的荒谬侮辱,”洪成潭谈起这幅画的遭遇时说。画中朴槿惠被描绘为被其亡父控制的傀儡,他在发动政变后领导该国将0年。“他们的做法验了我的画想表达的东西。在朴槿惠的统治下,这个国家正在向她父亲统治时期的旧做法转变,压制言论自由。”Ms. Park’s administration has come under withering criticism since the disaster, first for a botched rescue effort, then for resisting the kind of broad independent investigation the victimsfamilies have demanded into the muddled emergency response and the lax government regulatory system many say helped lead to the sinking.朴槿惠政府在灾难发生后遭到了猛烈批评,首先是救援工作迟缓,然后是拒绝按照遇难者家属的要求,对混乱的应急措施和松懈的政府监管体系进行广泛的独立调查,很多人认为后者亦是导致沉船的原因。The painting, which Mr. Hong painted with other artists he invited to participate, shows the doomed ship at its center, upside down. Two enormous figures have lifted it out of the water, and in an imagined happier ending the passengers are emerging from the boat, smiling and waving. Surrounding that scene is a phantasmagoria of politically charged images from South Korean history, some dating from the country’s years of military rule. A prisoner is tortured under interrogation, and sinister figures lurk, wearing sunglasses and army uniforms.洪成潭邀请其他艺术家一起绘制了这幅画。画的中央是遇难渡轮,它上下颠倒。两个巨人把它从水里拉出来,在想象中更愉快的结局里,乘客们从船里出来,微笑着挥手。周围是韩国历史上因政治获罪者们的幻影,有些来自该国的军事统治时期。一个犯人正在被刑讯,戴着墨镜、穿着军装的邪恶人物若隐若现。Gwangju’s leaders defended their initial refusal to allow the painting in the festival, the Gwangju Biennale, an act that was unexpected in a city with a long history of resistance to conservative political power.光州的市领导为他们最初拒绝在光州双年展上展出这幅画进行了辩护。该市具有抵制保守政治势力的漫长历史,所以这一做法出人意料。“We demanded the exclusion of Mr. Hong’s painting because of its explicit political intention, such as the parodying of the president,Oh Hyeong-guk, a vice mayor of Gwangju, told reporters this month, adding that the city could not tolerate such a work in an art exhibition it helped finance. But as criticism mounted, the city later backtracked a bit, leaving the final decision to the festival’s authorities, who banned the painting.“我们要求撤掉洪成潭的油画,是因为它具有明显的政治意图,比如嘲弄总统,”光州市副市长吴炯国本月对记者说。他又补充,该市不能容忍在自己资助的艺术展上出现这样的作品。但是因为遭到越来越多的批评,该市后来做出了点让步,把最终决定权留给该展览的主办方,后者禁止展出该画。Some artists pulled out of the biennale in protest, and a few of its top officials resigned, saying they were torn between defending Mr. Hong’s freedom of expression and respecting the wishes of the city, one of the event’s main financial backers.有些艺术家撤出双年展以示抗议,该展览的几位高级主管因此辞职,称他们在维护洪成潭的言论自由和尊重该市的意愿之间左右为难。光州市是该展览的主要赞助者。The controversy, which Ms. Park’s office has not commented on, has renewed longstanding questions about the limits to artistic expression in South Korea.朴槿惠的办公室未对该争议作出。这场争议重新挑起了韩国民众对艺术表达限制的质疑,这种质疑长久以来就存在着。South Korean artists are vastly freer than they were under military rule, when a brand of crayon called Picasso was once banned because of the artist’s Communist associations. But artists who venture into political satire like other government critics often say they feel ostracized and harassed, and unflattering depictions of political leaders can lead to lawsuits and even criminal defamation charges.比起军事统治时期,韩国艺术家已经自由了很多,当时一种名为毕加索(Picasso)的蜡笔曾被禁止销售,只因为毕加索与共产主义有关系。但是大胆进行政治讽刺的艺术家,乃至其他批评政府的人经常声称感觉被排斥和骚扰,对政治领袖们毫不奉承的描述可能导致诉讼,甚至被判诽谤罪。For Mr. Hong, a 59-year-old painter who decades ago was jailed and tortured for his political expression, the fight over the painting is the latest skirmish in a long battle with repressive forces he believes are still at work.59岁的洪成潭几十年前曾因政治表达而遭到囚禁、拷打。他认为自己在与仍然存在的压迫势力进行漫长的战斗。对他来说,围绕这幅画的斗争只是其中的最新一次小冲突。“He is the last standing artist of resistance from the days of dictatorship,said Gim Jong-gil, an art critic.“他是来自独裁时代的最后一位长期反抗的艺术家,”艺术批评家金永吉(音译)说。As a young man, Mr. Hong studied art in Gwangju, which in the 1970s was a center of activism against the dictatorship of Park Chung-hee, Ms. Park’s father. By the time Mr. Park’s rule ended with his assassination in late 1979, Mr. Hong was an award-winning painter and a participant in the city’s underground pro-democracy movement.洪成潭年轻时曾在光州学艺术,0世纪70年代反对朴槿惠之父朴正熙独裁统治的运动中,光州是活动中心。朴正熙1979年末被刺杀,结束统治,当时洪成潭已经是一位备受赞誉的画家,是该市地下民主运动的参与者。Hopes that Mr. Park’s death would lead to democratization were soon crushed as power was seized by Gen. Chun Doo-hwan, one of Mr. Park’s protégés who was the head of military intelligence during the last year of his rule. Gwangju erupted in protests, and the regime sent tanks and paratroopers into the city in May 1980, killing hundreds.人们本希望朴正熙遇刺能带来民主,但是很快希望就破灭了,因为大权落入了朴正熙的门徒全斗焕将军手中,他在朴正熙统治的最后一年主管军事情报部980月,光州爆发抗议活动,政府派出坦克和空降兵,杀害了成百上千人。“I saw with my own eyes so many of my friends and colleagues killed,Mr. Hong said. “I decided then and there I would make it my lifetime duty to record and indict state brutality. Painting is my language, my picket protest, my placard.”“我亲眼看着我的很多朋友和同事被害,”洪成潭说,“我当场决定,把记录和控诉政府暴行作为我的终身责任。绘画就是我的语言,我的抗议,我的标语。”Under Mr. Chun’s rule, Mr. Hong, who was often on the run from the authorities, produced lithographs depicting scenes from the Gwangju massacre. But he is best known for his large canvases, which have often focused on South Koreans who suffered at the hands of their leaders.全斗焕统治时期,东躲西藏的洪成潭创作了很多描绘光州大屠杀场面的平版画。不过他最著名的作品是大型油画,它们的主题往往是那些因国家领导人而遭受苦难的韩国人。Mr. Hong’s works, along with pieces by other activist artists, were put to use by the student-led democracy movement of the 1980s. Police officers using tear gas raided university campuses and tore their paintings down.20世纪80年代学生领导的民主运动经常使用洪成潭等艺术活动家们的作品。警察曾用催泪弹突袭大学校园,撕毁他们的画作。Although Mr. Hong escaped imprisonment during the darkest years of dictatorship, he was arrested in 1989 as the country was moving toward democracy. Mr. Hong was arrested after sending slides of some of his work, including a painting that depicted the Gwangju uprising, to Korean-Americans who were headed to a youth festival in Pyongyang, North Korea. He was deemed to have violated the National Security Law, still in effect today, which prohibits any act judged to be “helping the enemyin North Korea. He was interrogated under torture and spent three years in prison.虽然洪成潭在最黑暗的独裁时期躲过了牢狱之灾,却989年该国走向民主时被捕。他把自己部分作品的幻灯(其中一幅画描绘的是光州起义)发给了前往朝鲜平壤参加一个青年节的一些韩裔美国人,因此被捕。他被认为违反了国家安全法。该法如今依然有效,它禁止任何被认定为“帮助”朝鲜“敌人”的行为。他遭受刑讯,在狱中度过了三年。After South Korea’s transition to democracy in the 1990s, most artists who had been active in the resistance to military rule moved on to other themes. But Mr. Hong continued to produce politically oriented work. In 2012, when the conservative Ms. Park ran for president, he made her a target. One scathing painting showed Ms. Park doing the now-famous “Gangnam Styledance created by a South Korean performer. She was dancing below a noose, an allusion to the hanging of dissidents under her father’s regime. Another painting put Ms. Park in a delivery room, having just given birth to a baby who resembles her late father.20世纪90年代韩国向民主社会过渡之后,大多数在反抗军事统治中非常活跃的艺术家转向了其他主题。但是洪成潭继续创作有政治导向的作品012年,保守派朴槿惠竞选总统时,他把她当成了一个靶子。在他的一幅尖刻的油画中,朴槿惠在一个绞架下面跳起了韩国艺人创作的著名舞蹈《江南Style》,绞架暗指她父亲统治时期对异见者实施绞刑。在另一幅画中,朴槿惠在产房里刚生了一个酷似其先父的孩子。Furious conservative politicians have compared Mr. Hong to Joseph Goebbels. The National Election Committee accused him of violating South Korean election law, which prohibits defaming candidates with the intent of preventing their election. But he was not charged. (Another artist, Lee Ha, was less fortunate; he was indicted after depicting Ms. Park as Snow White, holding a rotten apple with her father’s image engraved in its skin. He was acquitted two years later.)愤怒的保守派政客们把洪成潭比作约瑟夫·戈培尔(Joseph Goebbels)。韩国选举委员会指控他违反韩国选举法,该法禁止为阻止候选人当选而进行诋毁。但是他未被起诉(另一位艺术家李哈[Lee Ha音译]就没这么幸运了。他把朴槿惠描绘成白雪公主,手里拿着一个烂苹果,苹果皮上刻着其父的形象,他因此遭到起诉,两年后被判无罪)。“Sewol Owol,Mr. Hong’s painting about the ferry sinking, alludes both to the disaster of the ferry, the Sewol, and the Gwangju killings. (“Owolmeans May, the month when the massacre occurred.) Both events hit especially close to home for Mr. Hong, who not only witnessed the Gwangju murders, but has lived for years in Ansan, the city where the high school students who died aboard the Sewol were from.洪成潭的画作《世越五月Sewol Owol)既指沉没的渡轮“世越号”,也指光州大屠杀(Owol的意思是五月,大屠杀就是在五月份发生的)。这两起事件都触到了洪成潭的痛处,他不仅见了光州大屠杀,而且在安山市生活了很多年——“世越号”渡轮上的高中生就是来自安山市。One of those students, a girl who was in her junior year and who he said came from a poor family, worked part-time at his studio to help earn money and pick up skills to pursue her dream of being a painter. “Thirty-four years after the Gwangju massacre, in the Sewol disaster, I saw another massacre perpetrated by a cartel of crude capitalist businesses, corrupt bureaucrats and an irresponsible and feckless government,Mr. Hong said, referring to the corporate greed and government corruption that investigators say contributed to the disaster. “This was state brutality.”其中一名三年级的女生家境贫寒,在洪成潭的工作室里做兼职贴补家用,同时为追求当画家的梦想学习绘画技巧。“在光州大屠杀发生34年后,在‘世越号’沉船灾难中,我看到了另一场屠杀,凶手是野蛮的资本主义公司、腐败的官员和不负责任的政府,”洪成潭说。他指的是公司的贪婪和政府的腐败,调查者说政府的腐败也是这次灾难的原因之一。“这是国家的暴行。”After the city’s original rejection of his work, he retooled the painting, slightly. He replaced the caricature of the president with a chicken, a reference to a nickname used by critics: Geun-hye, the chicken. Startled city officials rejected that version as well.在该市第一次拒绝他的作品之后,他对画作稍微做了一点修改。他用一只小鸡代替总统的漫画——小鸡是批评家们对朴槿惠的谑称。大为震惊的市政府官员们也拒绝了这个版本。Mr. Hong sees the reaction to the Sewol painting as symptomatic of a dysfunctional society that cannot discuss its problems openly. Such a society, he said, is prone to disasters.洪成潭认为政府对“世越号”画作的反应表明这个社会功能失调,不能公开讨论自己的问题。他说这样的社会容易发生灾难。“Satirizing political power should not be a crime,he said.“讽刺政治权力不应该是一种罪行,”他说。来 /201409/326619。

This week Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida (and second son of George Bush), has been discreetly pressing the flesh in London. Unsurprisingly, interest in him has been sky high. For with the Republicans feeling exuberant after the recent midterm vote, there is fevered speculation about whether the genial Bush will become a 2016 Republican presidential candidate and thus potentially pave the way for a bizarrely dynastic Bush v Clinton fight.本周,美国佛罗里达州前州长杰#8226;布什(Jeb Bush,老布什(George H.W. Bush)的次子)低调地在伦敦与人们握手。不出所料,外界对他极感兴趣。最近中期选举结果出炉后,共和党人欢欣鼓舞,各方狂热地猜测这位待人亲切的布什会不会成016年大选的共和党总统候选人,潜在开启一场带有吊诡的王朝意味的选战,即他与希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)角逐总统职位。Indeed, curiosity is so intense that when Pi Capital, the financial networking group, arranged a private breakfast with Bush in a Mayfair hotel, the room was packed with business leaders and financiers, all eager to hear his plans, his views on Hillary Clinton and much else.的确,人们对布什是如此好奇,以至于当金融集团Pi Capital在伦敦梅菲尔(Mayfair)地区的一家酒店为他安排一场私人早餐会时,房间里挤满了商界领袖和金融家,他们都迫切地想听一听布什的计划,以及他对希拉里和其他许多事情的看法。But having attended the breakfast meeting myself, I came away with two clear conclusions. The first is that this latest Bush is still playing it coy about whether he will actually run. His famous father and brother the 41st and 43rd presidents respectively say they would back his bid and Bush seems to be seriously considering it. But he remains carefully non-committal right now much like Clinton herself in fact (she talks about her new grandchild if anyone asks if she will run for the Democratic nomination).然而,在亲自参加了这个早餐会之后,我得出了两个明确的结论。首先,关于他是否会真的竞选,这位最新登场的布什还在“打太极”。他著名的父亲和哥哥(分别是1任和3任美国总统)都表示他们将持他竞选,而他似乎也在认真考虑。但他谨慎地避免现在就明确表态,这一点和希拉里差不多(每当有人问她是否会竞争民主党候选人提名时,她会谈论自己刚出世的外孙女)。But, second, this third Bush is also a man who tries hard to sound not just genial but sensible too. Indeed, if you ignore the peculiar dynastic legacy and highly privileged life, he looks almost normal, more akin to an avuncular family doctor than firebrand. He is a man known for espousing the merits of free markets and private business but is not calling for the abolition of the Federal Reserve or a return to the gold standard. Bush favours tighter border controls and balanced budgets but he also wants to encourage economic immigration, free trade and infrastructure projects. He does not support an isolationist US but nor does he want to invade every country with an unpleasant regime.但是,我的第二个结论是,这位布什三号努力让自己听上去不仅是个亲切的人,还是个明智的人。的确,如果你忽略吊诡的王朝遗风和他极其优越的生活,他看上去几乎像个普通人,更像是一位具有长辈风范的家庭医生,而不是一个挑动争端的人。他以拥护自由市场和私营企业的优越性著称,但不会呼吁废除美联储(Fed)或者回到金本位制。他赞同更严格的边境管控和预算平衡,但他也同样希望鼓励经济移民、自由贸易和基础设施项目。他不持一个奉行孤立主义的美国,但也不想入侵每一个由令人不快的政权掌权的国家。He sounds, in other words, pragmatic, if not centrist and notably different from many of the Republican figures who have grabbed attention in recent years, be that Sarah Palin (the 2008 vice-presidential candidate), Ted Cruz (the Tea Party firebrand who fancies himself as a 2016 presidential candidate) or Rand Paul (the libertarian Republican leader who is another potential runner).换句话说,他听起来是务实的(如果说还算不上是中间立场的话),而且和近年来吸引人们注意力的许多共和党头面人物明显不同,比如莎拉#8226;佩林(Sarah Palin008年副总统候选人)、特#8226;克鲁斯(Ted Cruz,茶Tea Party)的挑动争端者,幻想当上2016年总统候选人)或者兰#8226;保罗(Rand Paul,自由主义派共和党人的领袖,另一位可能参选的人)。So does this mean that a third Bush presidential campaign is doomed? The answer partly depends not simply on that tricky matter of dynasty but something else: can “sensiblebe sold to US voters today? Judging from the past decade, the answer might seem to be “no As the rise of the Tea Party has shown, the big winners in American politics, particularly on the right, have tended to embrace celebrity politics, populism and protest.那么这是否意味着这位布什竞选总统注定会失败呢?不仅仅取决于棘手的王朝问题,还有其它因素:如今的美国选民是否还买“明智”的帐?从过0年的情况看,似乎是否定的。正如茶党的崛起所显示出的那样,美国政治的(尤其是在右翼),倾向于采用名人政治、民粹主义和抗议。That partly reflects the economic cycle and, most notably, the pain caused by the great financial crisis and recession. But it may also reflect a longer-term structural shift. These days, more and more voters are getting their information about politics and everything else via social media platforms such as Twitter. These platforms are an effective way to create a loud political noise but not a good place to create thoughtful debate. Attention spans are so short that everyone needs to shout to be heard. Extremism tends to dominate.这部分反映了经济周期,尤其是严重金融危机和经济衰退造成的痛苦。但或许也反映了更长期的结构性转变。如今,越来越多的选民通过Twitter等社交媒体平台来获取信息——无论是关于政治还是其他事情。这些平台能够有效地制造巨大的政治舆论,但不是开展有思想深度的辩论的理想平台。人们的注意力持续时间如此之短,以至于每个人都得大声叫嚷才能让别人听到自己的声音。极端言论往往主宰了这些平台。Perhaps this is just a short-term phenomenon. There are some factors in the current American political mood that might just possibly make it easier to sell a sensible candidate to voters, or so some of the old-school Republicans and business leaders who are trying to remake the party desperately hope. For one thing, the economic outlook seems to be improving. For another, the mood in Congress might be getting a little more pragmatic. With both the Senate and House of Representatives now controlled by the Republicans, it is possible that Congress will pass more legislation in the next couple of years. If so, that might show voters that pragmatic co-operation pays.也许这只是一个短期现象。当前美国政治氛围中的某些因素可能——仅仅是可能——让选民们更容易接受一个明智的候选人,至少一些老派共和党人和商界领袖殷切希望如此,他们正试图重新打造该党。一方面,经济前景似乎在改善。另一方面,美国国会的氛围也可能变得更务实了一些。随着共和党将参众两院都掌握在手中,未来两年国会可能会通过更多法律。若果真如此,那也许能让选民看到,务实合作是能够带来成果的。Then there is the nature of emotional cycles. Back in 2008, US voters fell violently in love with the idea of “hope and change as presented by a man blessed with soaring rhetoric and celebrity. Today many have fallen equally violently out of love with Barack Obama as those unrealistic dreams have been dashed. That might leave them grasping at another anti-establishment celebrity dream but it might also leave them shunning glitz. Voting for Bush, in other words, could yet be presented as the political equivalent of dating a lawyer after being burned by an unreliable rock star. Or, more accurately, like dating the sensible son of your high-school teacher, whose family you aly know well.还有就是情绪周期的本质。回008年,美国选民狂热地迷上了某位慷慨激昂、人气高涨的人提出的理念——“希望和改变”。如今,随着那些不切实际的梦想被击碎,很多人开始同样激烈地厌弃巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)。这也许会让他们拥戴另一位反体制的名人——但也可能让他们唾弃浮夸。换句话说,投票给布什在政治上可能等同于在被一个不靠谱的摇滚明星伤害后,转而和一个律师约会。或者,更准确地来说,就像和你高中老师家的明智的儿子约会一样,你已经非常了解他的家庭了。Of course, all this is mere speculation. Thus far the only thing that is tangibly clear is that this Bush commands moderate respect: according to a recent A News/Washington Post poll, some 26 per cent of voters think he would make a good president, which is better than many rival potential candidates, if not great. But in the months ahead, Americans and non-Americans alike should closely watch this third Bush. Not just because of what it might reveal about Republican policies or the dynastic-cum-tribal patterns of US politics but also for what it shows about how social media is changing politics or not. Can sensible, in other words, ever “trend当然,这些都只是猜测而已。到目前为止,唯一确凿的是,这位布什赢得了一定程度的尊敬:最近美国广播公司新闻部(A News)和《华盛顿邮报Washington Post)进行的民意调查显示,约有26%的选民认为布什会是一位好总统,就算这个比例不算太高,至少也比很多潜在的竞选对手强。在接下来的数月里,美国人和美国以外的人都应该密切关注这位布什三号——不仅仅是为了从中观察共和党的政策,或者领略美国政治的“王朝和部落”色,也是为了观察社交媒体如何改变政治进程,或者没能改变政治进程。换句话说,明智能引领潮流吗?来 /201411/345166。

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, started a week-long tour of the Middle East and Europe yesterday to try to win support for the creation a new government in Iraq capable of bridging the sectarian tensions threatening to tear the country apart.美国国务卿约#8226;克里(John Kerry)昨日开始对中东和欧洲进行为期一周的访问,以求争取各方持,在伊拉克建立一个有能力弥合可能撕裂该国的教派冲突的新政府。Mr Kerry will be seeking political cover from allies in the Gulf for possible US military action against Sunni militants in northern Iraq, while also trying to convince them that Washington does not plan to cede more ground in Iraq to Iran.对于美国可能对伊拉克北部逊尼派武装分子采取军事行动,克里将从海湾盟国那里寻求政治掩护,同时他还将试图让他们相信,美国不计划在伊拉克问题上向伊朗作出更多让步。The diplomatic push follows President Barack Obama’s announcement on Thursday that the US would send 300 “military advisersto Iraq and is considering “targeted air strikesagainst the insurgents but is also pushing for political reform in Baghdad to engage disaffected Sunni.在克里此次出访之前,美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)上周四宣布,美国将向伊拉克派00名“军事顾问”,并考虑针对叛军实施“有针对性的空袭”,但同时将推动伊拉克的政治改革,要求该国政府与不满的逊尼派接触。Mr Kerry arrived in Egypt yesterday for the first leg of his trip, just as Sunni militants gained control of a town close to the Jordanian border. “This is a critical moment,Mr Kerry said following a meeting with Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s president, calling the militants a “threat not only to Iraq but to the entire region克里昨日抵达此行的首站埃及,与此同时,逊尼派武装分子占领了一个接近约旦边境的小镇。克里在与埃及总统阿卜杜勒#8226;法塔#8226;西西(Abdel Fattah al-Sisi)会面后表示:“这是一个关键时刻,”他称这些武装分子“不仅是对伊拉克的威胁,而且是对整个地区构成的威胁”。In a television interview, Mr Obama said the insurgents were “destabilising the countryand that the fighting could “spill over into some of our allies like Jordan and that they are engaged in wars in Syria奥巴马在接受电视采访时表示,叛乱分子正在“破坏伊拉克的稳定”,战火可能“蔓延到约旦等我们的盟国”。来 /201406/308079。

A “Yesvote for independence would be an economic mistake for Scotland and a geopolitical disaster for the west, senior US figures, including Alan Greenspan have told the Financial Times, as Washington wakes up to the chance that its closest ally could break up this week.苏格兰公投结果若为独立,将是苏格兰在经济上的失算,也是西方的一场地缘政治灾难——这是艾#8226;格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)等美国高层人物告诉英囀?金融时报》的。华盛顿正意识到其最亲密的盟友有可能在本周面临分裂。Having assumed for months that “Nowould win comfortably, Washington has reacted with alarm to polls showing that Thursday’s referendum is going to the wire. “Like many Americans, and given that my name is Robert Bruce, I have an admiration for the Scots, their heritage and their role in US and world history,said Robert Zoellick, the former deputy secretary of state and World Bank president. “But a break-up of the UK would be a diminution of Britain and a tragedy for the west just at a moment when the US needs strong partners. I strongly suspect it would not work out well for the Scots either.”在多个月来假设反对独立的一方将轻松取胜之后,华盛顿对民调结果作出震惊的反应,这些民调显示周四的公投命悬一线。“和很多美国人一样,并且因为我的名字是罗伯特#8226;布鲁Robert Bruce),我对苏格兰人、他们的文化遗产,以及他们在美国乃至世界历史上起到的作用怀有一种敬佩之情,”曾先后担任美国副国务卿和世界银World Bank)行长的罗伯特#8226;佐利Robert Zoellick)表示。“但是联合王国的解体将意味着英国的缩小,那将是西方的一个悲剧,而目前正值美国需要强大的合作伙伴。我强烈预期,独立到头来对苏格兰人也没有什么好处。”Senator John McCain, a former Republican presidential candidate who sees the UK as America’s most important military partner, said he was reluctant to comment on another country’s internal affairs . “But I don’t see how it could be helpful, not just as far as intelligence ties are concerned, but to the unique military relationship as well.”曾经是共和党总统候选人的参议员约翰#8226;麦凯John McCain)将英国视为美国最重要的军事盟友。他表示,他不太愿意对另一个国家的内部事务发表,“但我看不出它怎么可能是有益的,无论是对情报关系还是对独一无二的军事关系而言。”Mr Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, said the economic consequences of independence would be “surprisingly negative for Scotland, more so than the nationalist party is in any way communicating美联Fed)前主席格林斯潘表示,独立的经济后果“对苏格兰将出奇负面,超过苏格兰民族党目前所表达的程度”。Despite nationalist claims to the contrary, he said there was no chance of London’s agreeing to a currency union. Differing fiscal policies would also cause any Scottish attempt at using the pound regardless to “break apart very quickly.#8201;.#8201;. There’s no conceivable, credible way the Bank of England is going to sit there as a lender of last resort to a new Scotland尽管民族主义者发表相反的预测,但格林斯潘表示,伦敦绝无可能同意货币联盟。不同的财政政策也将造成苏格兰自作主张使用英镑的尝试“很快瓦解……没有一种可以想象的、可信的方式让英国央BoE)作为新苏格兰的最后贷款人。”The US is worried that a Yes vote could increase the chances that the rest of the UK might vote to leave the EU, which US officials believe would make Britain a much less potent partner. “That is our nightmare Scottish independence followed by a British exit from the EU,said a senior administration official.美国担心,苏格兰独立的公投结果将增加英国其余部分投票退出欧盟的几率,美国官员认为,这将使英国成为一个不那么得力的合作伙伴。“那是我们的噩梦——苏格兰独立,接着英国退出欧盟,”奥巴马政府一名高级官员表示。Josh Earnest, White House spokesman, said: “We have an interest in seeing the UK remain strong, robust and united.”白宫发言人乔#8226;欧内斯特(Josh Earnest)表示:“英国保持强大、有活力和统一符合我们的利益。”来 /201409/328665。