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While international views of Britain’s referendum on EU membership are eagerly solicited and picked over, and Germans, Chinese and Americans may be quizzed by either side for reassurance or nuance, Russia’s support for Brexit is assumed. Vladimir Putin was an early, if unwitting, recruit as bogeyman in the service of those campaigning for the UK to remain in the bloc.不管是退欧派还是留欧派都殷切征求国际社会对英国退欧公投的看法,双方或许也都寻求德囀?中国和美国的持或是寻找他们态度上的细微差别,但他们都认定俄罗斯持英国退出欧盟。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)无意中早就被留欧派视作反派角色。David Cameron, prime minister, bracketed the Russian president with the leader of Isis as people who would be “happyat a victory for Leave. Michael Fallon, UK defence secretary, told MPs that Brexit would be “payday for Putin former foreign secretary Jack Straw branded Boris Johnson, former London mayor and leading advocate of the Leave camp, a “Putin apologistfor criticising EU policy towards Ukraine. Vote out, the Remain argument goes, and you will be advancing Russia’s nefarious purpose.英国首相戴维#8226;卡梅David Cameron)将普京与“伊斯兰国ISIS)头目相提并论,认为他们将为退欧派的胜利而“感到高兴”。英国国防大臣迈克尔#8226;法伦(Michael Fallon)对议员称,英国退欧将成为“普京的收获日”;前外交大臣杰#8226;斯特Jack Straw)将前伦敦市长、退欧阵营主要持者鲍里斯#8226;约翰Boris Johnson)视为“普京的辩护者”,因为约翰逊对欧盟的乌克兰政策持批评态度。留欧派还认为,英国退出欧盟将有利于俄罗斯实现险恶用心。The logic runs like this: Mr Putin’s ultimate objective is the destabilisation, even the collapse, of the EU. A vote by a big member state to leave would be a significant step in that direction. Therefore Brexit is in Moscow’s interest. Underlying this thesis are two ingrained western beliefs: that Russia’s intentions towards the west are only malign; and that it sees the EU as vulnerable.他们的逻辑是:普京的终极目标是欧盟出现不稳定,甚至解体。一个大成员国的退出将是朝着这个方向迈出的重要一步。因此,英国退欧符合莫斯科方面的利益。撑这一论点的是西方根深蒂固的两大信条:俄罗斯对西方只怀有恶意;它认为欧盟很脆弱。How true is this? Russia might well prefer a weaker EU a grouping which, by the way, it sees as expansionist and strong but willing the bloc’s disintegration is something of a quite different, and more dangerous, order.这种判断在多大程度上是准确的呢?俄罗斯很可能希望看到一个较弱的欧盟——实际上它认为欧盟强大且怀着扩张之心——但希望欧盟解体则是另外一回事,也更加危险。The absolute priority for the Kremlin has long been Russia’s security, and regional stability is seen as a condition for that. Russians of Mr Putin’s vintage have lived through the break-up of the Warsaw Pact, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fear that the Russian Federation could also disintegrate. Viewed from Moscow, the prospect of the EU falling apart threatens Europe-wide contagion from which Russia would not necessarily be spared.长期以来,克里姆林宫把俄罗斯的安全作为重中之重,而地区稳定是实现这一目标的先决条件之一。与普京同时代的俄罗斯人都经历过华约(Warsaw Pact)解散、苏联解体以及担忧俄罗斯联邦也可能解体的时期。在莫斯科看来,欧盟解体造成的后果很可能波及整个欧洲,俄罗斯未必能独善其身。Russia is commonly accused of trying to undermine the EU. But playing the bully towards the Baltic states and cosying up to Greece, while leaving a sour taste, are for the Kremlin no more than diplomatic manoeuvres. It regards such probing as affordable, precisely because it sees no risk that the EU will, as a result, fall apart.俄罗斯常常被指试图暗中削弱欧盟。但恫吓波罗的海诸国并示好希腊,对克里姆林宫而言只不过是外交策略。俄罗斯认为这样进行试探代价不高,而这正是因为它不认为欧盟因此将有走向解体的风险。In practical terms, Russia appreciates the EU’s solidity and the convenience of dealing with one trading area. Moscow was seriously rattled when the single currency appeared to be at risk to the point of offering financial support to the European Central Bank. It saw a euro collapse as a danger to Russia, too.实际上,俄罗斯重视欧盟的稳固以及与单一贸易区打交道的便利。当欧元遭遇危机时,莫斯科似乎深感不安——到了向欧洲央行(ECB)提供资金持的程度。俄罗斯也将欧元崩溃视为对本国的威胁。The EU’s success, as perceived in Moscow, is what Mr Putin wanted to replicate with the Eurasian Economic Union. This was to be a voluntary grouping of states on the EU model, building on Soviet-era economic links. It was to be a partner for the EU, not a competitor. But first the EU refused to deal with it, and then came the contest for Ukraine. The project now looks moribund, but that does not mean Russia wants to strike down the EU in revenge.普京希望欧亚经济联盟(Eurasian Economic Union)能复制欧盟的成功。欧亚经济联盟的目标是成为一个建立在苏联时代经济联系基础上、以欧盟为样板、自愿参与的国家集团。其初衷是成为欧盟的合作伙伴,而非竞争对手。但从一开始,欧盟就拒绝与该组织打交道,而后来双方又因乌克兰问题陷入对抗。虽然这项计划目前看起来停滞不前,但这并不意味着俄罗斯想通过击垮欧盟进行报复。Which leaves an intriguing question. If Russia is not actually rooting for Brexit, why is neither Mr Putin nor any of his allies saying so? Partly, perhaps, because they are well aware of the savaging they would receive if they seemed to interfere in the UK’s internal affairs. Partly also perhaps Machiavellian: if casting Mr Putin as a bogeyman makes a Remain vote more likely, so be it.这带来了一个引人深思的问题。如果俄罗斯实际上并不持英国退欧,为什么普京及其盟友都不表态呢?也许部分原因在于,他们深知任何疑似干涉英国内政之举都会招致猛烈抨击。还有一个原因或许是出于权谋考量:如果让普京当反派能让留欧阵营的胜算更大,那样也奀?The Kremlin has given no hint of any preference. If you chance upon a Russian diplomat in a quiet corner you might find, if not outright hostility to Brexit, then profound misgivings. Which is why, although the western consensus is that Mr Putin is preparing to toast an Out win, do not be so sure. The champagne may indeed be on ice. Whether it is in anticipation of a UK vote to leave the EU is another matter.克里姆林宫没有给出持哪一方的任何暗示。如果在一个安静角落偶遇一位俄罗斯外交官,你或许会发现,他们不是直接表示反对英国退欧,就是流露出深深的不安。因此,虽然西方的共识是普京正准备为退欧阵营的胜利干杯,但不要如此肯定。香槟或许的确放在冰块上,但这是否预示期待英国退欧是另一回事。来 /201606/448726China’s strategy to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions faces a crucial test in the coming days as the UN Security Council presses ahead with a resolution, and possible new sanctions, against China’s neighbour and sometime ally.中国遏制朝鲜核抱负的战略将在未来几天面临关键考验。目前联合国安理会正推动通过决议,可能对中国的这个邻国(有时还是盟友)施加新的制裁。Experts on both sides of the Pacific say Beijing has been surprised by the US’s tough response to Pyongyang’s testing of a nuclear warhead in January and launch this month of a long-range rocket. The US is asking China to impose sweeping economic sanctions on Pyongyang, including an oil embargo.太平洋两岸的专家们表示,美国对平壤今月份核弹头试验和本月发射远程火箭做出了强硬的回应,这让北京方面感到意外。美国要求中国对平壤施加包括石油禁运在内的全面经济制裁。“My sense from talking with the Chinese is that they were quite surprised that the US came to them with such a big ask,says Bonnie Glaser of Washington-based think-tank the Center for International and Strategic Studies. “They were expecting something along the lines of what had been done in the past, a marginally tougher UN Security Council resolution and tough rhetoric, and move on.”总部位于华盛顿的智库——战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示:“从与中方人士的谈话中,我感到他们对美国提出这么高的要求感到相当意外。他们预计会像过去那样,联合国安理会通过稍微强硬一点的决议,做出严厉谴责,然后事情就过去了。”One measure Washington has rolled out is a proposal to base a new anti-missile defence system in South Korea. This has infuriated Beijing, which says the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) platform could threaten its own nuclear deterrent.华盛顿已经推出的一个举措是,提议在韩国部署新的反导弹防御系统。这激怒了北京,后者表示,末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD)平台可能威胁到中国的核威慑力量。The US has also said it will press ahead with tough unilateral secondary sanctions, with bills working their way through Congress that could target some Chinese banks and companies working with North Korea.美国还表示,将推动出台严厉的二级单边制裁措施,美国国会正在审议的一些法案可能针对某些与朝鲜有业务来往的中资和公司。The measures are also intended to stiffen Beijing’s resolve and make it consider cutting off its economic lifeline to Pyongyang. Beijing, however, not only fears the consequences of further antagonising North Korea, it is also anxious to prevent the downfall of the regime.这些措施也意在强化北京方面的决心,促使后者考虑切断平壤的经济命脉。然而,北京方面不仅担心进一步激怒朝鲜的后果,而且还急于阻止朝鲜政权倒台。“North Korea is a nuclear-armed country on the brink of collapse,says Tong Zhao, an expert on nuclear disarmament at the Beijing-based Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre.位于北京的卡内基-清华全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)核裁军专家赵通表示:“朝鲜是一个处于崩溃边缘的核武国家。”“Making it into an enemy is the last thing China wants to see, because China can be directly threatened. I think it is unfair for the international community to make that demand on China.”“把它变成敌人是中国最不想看到的事情,因为中国可能直接受到威胁。我认为,国际社会对中国提出这种要求是不公平的。”Beijing appears to have adopted a policy of publicly paying lip service to tougher sanctions while privately working the levers behind the scenes. Wang Yi, foreign minister, told Reuters in Munich last week that the UN should adopt a resolution to ensure “North Korea will pay the necessary price and to show there is a consequence for its behaviour中国政府采取的政策似乎是口头上公开持对朝鲜实施更严厉制裁,私下里却在幕后斡旋。中国外交部长王毅上周在慕尼黑告诉路透社(Reuters),联合国应出台一项决议,确保“朝鲜将付出必要的代价并表明朝鲜要为其行为承担后果”。The US has been emboldened by the recent Iran nuclear deal, which showed how tough sanctions can work to change the behaviour of “rogue states But these arguments do not appear to be working in Beijing, where there is fear for stability on the Korean peninsula.最近生效的伊朗核协议使美国得到鼓舞,该协议表明,严厉制裁能够改变“无赖国家”的行为。但这些主张对中国似乎没有说力,中国对朝鲜半岛稳定感到担忧。“Yes they want de-nuclearisation but only under the precondition of the preservation of stability in North Korea,says Ms Glaser. “The Chinese have no stomach for regime change in North Korea.”“没错,他们希望实现无核化,但前提条件是维护朝鲜的稳定,”葛来仪表示,“中国不希望朝鲜发生政权更迭。”When John Kerry, US secretary of state, travelled to Beijing and urged the Chinese government to embargo oil shipments to North Korea, he was rebuffed by Mr Wang, according to experts.据专家称,美国国务卿约翰克里(John Kerry)访问北京并敦促中国政府对朝鲜实施石油禁运,遭到了王毅的拒绝。Meanwhile, the opposite approach seems to be in the air in Beijing. Cui Lei, a researcher at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies, wrote a widely followed opinion piece in a Singapore newspaper last month advocating treating North Korea similarly to India and Pakistan, which both tested nuclear bombs in 1998.与此同时,中国似乎在试探相反的策略。北京中国国际问题研究院(China Institute of International Studies)研究员崔磊上月在一份新加坡报纸上发表了一篇广受关注的文章,持像对待印度和巴基斯坦那样对待朝鲜。前两个国家曾在1998年进行核弹实验。“We should opt our India-Pakistan approach: acquiescence in North Korea’s nuclearisation, while refusing to legalise it,he wrote.他写道:“我认为,可以考虑采取印巴模式,默认朝鲜的拥核事实,但不给予其合法地位。”来 /201602/427480The leader of the Islamic States operations in the volatile Sinai Peninsula and mastermind of the October 2015 attack on a Russian airliner in the region that left 224 dead has been killed by Egypts air force, intelligence sources told Fox News last Thursday.上周四,情报来源告知《福克斯新闻》称,极端组织ISIS的首领在暴乱的西奈半岛被埃及空军所杀。他曾策0150月袭击俄罗斯客机事件,共造成224人死亡。ISIS Sinai leader Abu Dua al-Ansari was killed in Al Arish, the sources said.消息来源称,ISIS组织在西奈分的头目阿布·安萨里是在阿里什伏法的。A post on the Facebook page of the militarys chief spokesman, Brig-Gen Mohammed Samir, said al-Ansari was killed in an operation guided by ;accurate intelligence.;军方首席发言人、陆军准将穆罕默德·萨米尔在脸书的一条帖子上声明,据可靠情报,安萨里是在一次行动指挥中被杀的。He helped organize ISIS activities in the region including attacks against U.N. personnel in their Sinai base, investigators said.调查人员表示,安萨里曾组织过ISIS在此区域的活动,其中包括在其西奈基地袭击联合国人员。In the Metrojet plane attack on October 31, an air mechanic whose cousin joined ISIS in Syria is suspected to have planted a bomb on the Russian passenger plane at the Sharm el-Sheikh airport. The plane then exploded in Egypts skies after takeoff, killing all 224 aboard.01501日快捷客机遇袭一案中,一名飞机技工被怀疑在沙姆伊赫机场的一架俄罗斯客机机舱内安装了一颗炸弹。此人的堂兄参加了叙利亚极端组织。飞机起飞后不久,在埃及上空爆炸,机24人无一生还。Egypts military wrote on its Facebook page that its airstrikes also killed 45 ISIS fighters and ammunition depots used by the group, Reuters reported.据路透社报道,埃及军方在脸书上写到,本次空袭还杀死了45名ISIS组织的士兵,并缴获了他们的弹药库。Egyptian forces have been battling Islamic militants in Sinai for years but the insurgency there has grown deadlier since the 2013 ouster by the military of the countrys Islamist president.多年来,埃及军队一直在西奈半岛与伊斯兰武装分子对抗,但自从2013年前伊斯兰总统下台后,当地的暴动变得更加极端。来 /201608/460391

Russia warmly welcomed the U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump with officials, analysts, and ordinary citizens cautiously hoping it could turn a new page in relations between Russia and the ed States. Russian analysts say there are still many unknowns about Trump and whether his campaign rhetoric will translate into policy.俄罗斯热烈欢迎唐纳德·川普当选为美国总统。俄罗斯政府官员,分析人士和普通民众都对俄美关系能掀开新的篇章抱持审慎乐观的态度。俄罗斯分析人士说,至于川普以及他的竞选言论能否转化为现实,仍有很多未知数。Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump, saying he hoped to work together with the next American president to lift relations out of the current crisis. On the streets of Moscow, Trump’s victory was welcomed by most Russians.俄罗斯总统普京对川普表示祝贺,并说他希望与下届美国总统一道努力,让两国关系从当前危机中走出来。在莫斯科街头,多数俄罗斯人对川普胜选表示欢迎。But Russian media coverage and praise for Trump during his campaign raised expectations for a man unknown to politics who was not supposed to win and whose policies are not yet clear.不过,俄罗斯媒体在竞选期间对川普的报道和赞扬抬高了人们对这位政治新手的预期值。他的胜利出乎预料,很多政策也还不明确。Regardless of hopes and expectations, a U.S. led by Donald Trump begins a new chapter in relations with Russia.不管有什么希望和预期,川普领导下的美国将掀开美俄关系的新篇章。来 /201611/477863

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